Week 16 in the NFL has plenty of intriguing storylines, with some teams jockeying for the playoffs and others already looking toward the future.
My NFL picks are fading a Falcons offense that will be giving rookie QB Michael Penix his first career start, and I'm also targeting the total in Miami and Arlington.
Here are my best free NFL total bets for Week 16.
Week 16 totals bets
- Giants vs Falcons u43 (-110 at BetMGM)
- 49ers vs Dolphins u45 (-110 at bet365)
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys o48.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 16 Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Giants vs Falcons Under 43
The New York Giants rank dead-last in the NFL in scoring with 14.9 points per game, and backup quarterback Drew Lock has been a disaster under center.
Lock completed just 21-of-49 passes for 227 yards last week in a 14-11 loss to the Saints. The only thing this Giants offense has going for it is rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, but Atlanta has a high-caliber corner in A.J. Terrell who can slow him down.
Although there's excitement surrounding the Atlanta Falcons after they benched Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix Jr., let's not forget that this is a rookie QB making his first career start.
There will be growing pains, and Penix is one of the few left-handed passers in the NFL, so adjusting to a southpaw QB in the middle of the season won't be easy for his receivers. As bad as these defenses have been, the offenses won't do enough to drag this game Over the total.
Over/Under bet #2: 49ers vs Dolphins Under 45
The San Francisco 49ers are coming off an ugly 12-6 loss to the Rams, and they've now scored 10 points or fewer in three of their last four games. Brock Purdy has been held below 160 passing yards in three of those contests and fourth-string RB Patrick Taylor Jr. is in line to start after a rash of injuries to the backfield.
They won't find it easy to score against the Miami Dolphins, who sit 12th in the league in defensive EPA and have limited foes to 20.9 points per game since the start of October. While the Dolphins defense has played better than expected, they haven't been the offensive juggernaut they were supposed to be.
Miami is 31st in the league in rush EPA and QB Tua Tagovailoa has been limited by a banged-up receiving corps. All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill is also questionable with a wrist injury while No. 2 wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is doubtful.
The Dolphins seldom attack downfield, with Tagovailoa averaging just 5.5 air yards per pass — the lowest number in the league. Miami's offense also plays at a slow tempo, ranking 28th in seconds per snap (28.5) while San Francisco ranks last at 29.4 seconds/snap.
Over/Under bet #3: Buccaneers vs Cowboys Over 48.5
Don't look now but the Dallas Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in three of their last four games with Cooper Rush at the helm. Granted, those games came against some terrible defenses, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven't been much better — ranking 29th in the league in defensive success rate.
Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle has rushed for 119.5 yards per game over the last four weeks, and CeeDee Lamb should torch a secondary that is 30th in defensive dropback success rate and will be missing star safety Antoine Winfield Jr.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay should move the ball at will against Dallas. The Bucs have averaged 30.8 ppg since Week 4 and their balanced offense is seventh in dropback EPA and sixth in rush EPA.
The Cowboys currently sit 26th in defensive EPA and 32nd in defensive rush EPA, and they also lost linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and top corner Trevon Diggs to season-ending injuries in recent weeks. There's even a chance that All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons might sit out since he popped up on the IR with an illness.
Not intended for use in MA.
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