Week 5 NFL Trend Report: Chiefs vs Vikings Will Light Up Minnesota

And just like that, Week 5 of the NFL season is upon us, and it comes with an absolute avalanche of NFL betting trends — some new and some I’ll continue to go back to the well on as they continue to hit.

Being four weeks into a season has brought us to a place where league-wide trends are starting to even out a bit, as they tend to do. So far, NFL odds have seen favorites boast a minuscule edge over underdogs, with faves covering in 50.8% of games played. As far as totals go, the Under has hit at a 54.7% clip.

As always, avoid blindly backing trends when making your NFL picks. If you think one is actionable, try to find additional data to back it, and then fire away if you still like what you see.

Best NFL Week 5 betting trends

Bears vs Commanders

The trend: The Commanders have gone Under in 20 of their last 25 home games

We’ve seen combined scores of 36 and 40 in Washington’s home games this season. With the total for the Thursday nighter sitting at 44.5, it should be noted that all 11 games with a total of 44.5 or higher during this trend have stayed Under. In two road games this season, the Bears have scored 27 total points.

See all Bears vs. Commanders trends for Week 5.

Jaguars vs Bills

The trend: 16 of the Bills’ last 22 games have gone Over the 1st quarter total

This has been a popular trend in this article, so I’ll happily promote it again. Bills’ first quarters are seeing an average of 12 combined points and they’re doing most of the heavy lifting with an average of 8.5 points scored in the opening quarter, which is one of the best marks in the league. The first-quarter total for this matchup in Jolly Old England is set at 9.5.

See all Jaguars vs. Bills trends for Week 5.

Saints vs Patriots

The trend: The Saints have gone Under in 13 of their last 14 games

If you’ve been consuming this article all season, you knew this was coming. The Saints have easily stayed Under in all four of their games, with an average combined score of just 34.5. Despite this, the total for this game vs. the Patriots is at 40.5. New England hasn’t exactly been involved in a bunch of shootouts either, as their games have seen an average combined score of 38 points. I know what I’ll be betting in this game…

See all Saints vs Patriots trends for Week 5.

Titans vs Colts

The trend: The Titans have hit the 4th quarter Under in 15 of their last 17 games

This one is becoming a staple of this article. During this 17-game stretch, this trend has profited +12.8 units. So far this season, three of the Titans’ four games have seen seven or fewer points scored in the fourth quarter while the Colts have been held scoreless in two separate fourth quarters. The fourth-quarter total for this game is 12.5 points.

See all Titans vs. Colts trends for Week 5.

Ravens vs Steelers

The trend: The Ravens have gone Under in 14 of their last 19 games

At 38.5, this game has the lowest total of the week, but it might not be low enough. Pittsburgh couldn’t reach double-digit points in two of its four games, while the last three meetings between these teams failed to cross 30 points. Specific to the total for this matchup, nine of the games in the above trend stayed below 38.5 points.

See all Ravens vs. Steelers trends for Week 5.

Giants vs Dolphins

The trend: The Giants have been outscored 77-9 in the first half of games this season

Not your traditional trend here — just more of a pattern — but the continuation of this pattern looks very high for this matchup. Miami leads the league in first-half points, averaging 21.5 per game. Meanwhile, the Giants have been down by double digits at the half in three of their four games this season and still haven’t scored an opening-half touchdown. The Dolphins are available on the first-half spread at -6.5.

See all Giants vs. Dolphins trends for Week 5.

Panthers vs Lions

The trend: The Lions are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games

We’ve got a pretty straightforward trend here, which will be put to the test with the Lions as a nine-point favorite on Sunday. This is a serious sign of change for the Lions as they haven’t been a favorite of nine or more since November 12, 2017. It's extremely rare territory for Detroit as it's only been a favorite by this much or more six times since 2000!

See all Panthers vs. Lions trends for Week 5.

Texans vs Falcons

The trend: Atlanta has gone Under in 10 of its last 13 games

We’re seeing rock-bottom scoring in Falcons games. Their last 13 games have seen an average combined score of just 37.3, which includes games this season that have seen just 30, 26, and 24 combined points. As a result, the total for this game is one of the lower ones of the week at 41.

See all Texans vs. Falcons trends for Week 5.

Eagles vs Rams

The trend: The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog

We saw the Rams in this spot a handful of times during last year’s write-off season, but it’s otherwise been pretty rare territory during the Sean McVay era. This seven-game span stretches back to the start of the 2020 season and also includes four outright wins. The spread for this game is Eagles -4.5.

See all Eagles vs. Rams trends for Week 5.

Bengals vs Cardinals

The trend: The Cardinals have scored last in just two of their last 17 games

This is a bit of an odd one, but it’s certainly worth sharing as “Team to Score Last” odds are readily available at most sportsbooks. In this case, the Bengals are available at -122 at FanDuel to be the last team to score. So far this season, Arizona’s opponent has scored last in three of their four games.

See all Bengals vs. Cardinals trends for Week 5.

Chiefs vs Vikings

The trend: 11 of the last 15 Vikings’ home games went Over

Finally, an Over trend! At 53 points, this game has the highest total of the week. High-scoring games in Minnesota have become a pattern and this one might follow suit. Each offense has done a great job moving the football as they each rank in the Top 5 in yards per play. The Vikings lead the league in 20+ yard passing plays, however, they rank 31st in opponent completion percentage... this could be a fun one.

See all Chiefs vs. Vikings trends for Week 5.

Jets vs Broncos

The trend: The Broncos are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite

I was shocked to see this trend has taken place entirely over the last two years as the Broncos were somehow favored 18 times in this span. They were also outright losers in 12 of these games, including home losses this season to the Commanders and the Raiders. Let’s see if Nathaniel Hackett can get some revenge in what could be the ugliest game of the week.

See all Jets vs. Broncos trends for Week 5.

Cowboys vs 49ers

The trend: The 49ers have won 12 of their last 17 home games by 15 or more points

San Francisco is just obliterating everyone right now as they’ve opened the season with wins of 18 or more in three of four games. Specific to this home trend, they’re a ridiculous 15-2 ATS during the 17-game tear with nine straight covers, including playoff games.

See all Cowboys vs. 49ers trends for Week 5.

Packers vs Raiders

The trend: The Packers are 14-5 ATS after a loss since the start of the 2019 season

We’ve seen mixed results in the new era of Green Bay Packers football, but the team will try to stay consistent with a pattern of bouncing back that began in 2019, coinciding with Matt Lafleur taking over the team. The Packers have won eight straight games vs. the Raiders and are favored by 2.5.

See all Packers vs. Raiders trends for Week 5.

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