We’ve entered October, which means the playing field between bookies and bettors is beginning to tilt in favor of the "bad guys."
The more games we get, the sharper the NFL odds get, and Week 5 lines should be handled with care. That puts even greater importance on getting the best number.
That means betting on the opening spreads and totals immediately or waiting for the market to move and buying back the adjustment later in the week.
With the NFL Week 5 odds fresh out of the oddsmakers’ oven, I highlight lines to bet now and the ones to bet later.
Week 5 bet now, bet later picks
- Browns at Commanders (-3): Bet Now
- Cowboys at Steelers (-2): Bet Later
- Panthers at Bears (Under 44): Bet Now
- Cardinals at 49ers (Under 49.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3): Bet Now
Those contrarian bettors waiting for the Washington Commanders to fall back to earth may want to sit down. It could be a while.
The Commanders have scored a collective 80 points in the past two outings, which is more than the 66 total points the Cleveland Browns have mustered through the first four games. Cleveland drags its sorry ass to the nation’s capital in Week 5, with bookmakers giving it a field goal on the road.
Some of those Washington -3 lines have already jumped to -3.5 and will likely keep climbing, considering how good rookie QB Jayden Daniels looks… and how bad the Browns offense has been.
If you’re cashing in on the Commies, grab the -3 now. If you miss it, grab the -3.5. I believe we could see this at Washington -4 later and that’s an undervalued key number (fourth-most frequent margin behind 3, 6, 7, and 10).
Best odds to bet Commanders -3 right now
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2): Bet Later
The Dallas Cowboys picked up a win on Thursday, giving them a mini-bye before this non-conference clash on Sunday Night Football in Week 5.
That break is helping slim this spread from as big as -2.5 to as short as -1.5 on Sunday night in favor of the Pittsburgh Steelers. While the Steelers lost their first game of the season in Week 4, which is also driving this spread down, the offense continues to get better.
Pittsburgh put up more than 400 yards in the loss at Indianapolis on Sunday after almost 350 yards of offense in Week 3. Turnovers and red-zone flops have marred what is the 10th-ranked offense in EPA the past two weeks.
Dallas’ defense was lucky it didn’t give away the game with the Giants on Thursday and this stop unit is not what it once was. Heading into Week 5, Mike Zimmer’s group is ranked 23rd in EPA allowed per play and down its top two pass rushers, Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons.
The Cowboys always get blind support, so wait it out and get the Steelers at home closer to a pick’em later in the week.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (Under 44): Bet Now
This opening total is all over the place, with some books as tall as 44 points and others dealing 42.5 O/U on Sunday night.
The Carolina Panthers hit the Windy City with Andy Dalton — not Bryce Young — under center, facing a fierce Chicago Bears stop unit that has held its first four foes to 21 points or less. The Panthers have a little more punch with Dalton at the wheel, but this is a tough road game against a quality defense.
Chicago sits No. 7 in EPA allowed per play after Week 4 (prime-time games to be played) and continued to make game-changing plays, with eight total takeaways (third-most) including two in the win over the Rams.
Offensively, the Bears are struggling. They only had 17 first downs, were outgained by the Rams, and went 2-for-4 in the red zone. Chicago is 26th in EPA per play and success rate.
And, for what it’s worth, the extended forecast for Soldier Field already calls for wind gusts up to 23 mph next Sunday. October is when we see the weather start to flip, with cooler air stirring up those Windy City breezes. Get ahead of it and bet the Under 44 now.
Best odds to bet Under 44 right now
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (Under 49.5) Bet Later
This total is on the fast track to 50-plus very soon.
The Arizona Cardinals were absolutely boat raced by Washington in Week 4, giving up 42 points on almost 450 yards. As for the San Francisco 49ers, they poured on 30 points with 431 yards against the Patriots.
It’s easy to see why early play will be on the Over in Week 5. That makes a tough case for the Under, as well.
Arizona’s offense has sputtered the past two outings. After scoring almost 70 points in the opening two games, the Cardinals have combined for 27 points in losses to Detroit and Washington. The offense is a collective 5-for-20 on third downs in that span.
San Francisco is by far the strongest defense Arizona has faced in 2024, with the 49ers sitting 10th in EPA allowed per play. And should the Niners pull away, you can expect them to pull starters and take it slow in the second half due to a Thursday Night Football spot in Seattle in Week 6.
Totals of 50 points or higher are rare these days. Only three games have closed with a number of 50 or higher this season and all have gone Under that total. Going back to last season, totals of 50 or higher have produced a 4-15 O/U count (79% Under).
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