It's Week 5 in the NFL, and with October in full swing, it's time to monitor the weather before betting on any Over/Under numbers.
Wet weather is just one factor why I'm taking the Under in Sunday's game between the Colts and Jaguars, and I'm also betting the Under on the Monday Night Football clash between the Saints and Chiefs.
That said, it's never fun to root for Unders, so my NFL Week 5 totals bets are also playing the Over in an NFC West showdown between the Cardinals and 49ers. Here are my best free NFL picks.
Week 5 totals bets
- Colts vs Jaguars Under 46 (-110 at bet365)
- Cardinals vs 49ers Over 49 (-110 at Caesars)
- Saints vs Chiefs Under 43 (-115 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 5 Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Colts vs Jaguars Under 46 (-110 at bet365)
The Indianapolis Colts are 15th in the league in defensive EPA, while the Jaguars are 29th, and both stop units are missing several key starters. That said, this total is still too high when you consider how ineffective their offenses have been.
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is listed as questionable, but even if he does suit up, the down-to-down efficiency has been poor, with Indy 23rd in the league in dropback success rate. The Colts offense has been heavily reliant on Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor, who has been ruled out for Sunday, while center Ryan Kelly and right tackle Braden Smith are questionable.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 29th in the league in scoring with 15.0 points per game, and Trevor Lawrence ranks dead last out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE — with Richardson just one spot ahead of him.
When you also factor in the possibility of messy weather in Jacksonville with a high chance of showers and winds gusting up to 20 mph, the Under is the play.
Over/Under bet #2: Cardinals vs 49ers Over 49 (-110 at Caesars)
Despite dealing with several injuries, the San Francisco 49ers offense continues to hum right along, ranking sixth in the league in EPA and third in yards per play (6.3). Jordan Mason has filled in for Christian McCaffrey and is second in the NFL in rushing yards (447), while Brock Purdy was second in passing yards (1,130) entering Week 5.
Purdy isn't just highly efficient; he's also pushing the ball downfield, leading the league in average yards per pass attempt (9.3) while ranking second in average intended air yards (10.7). They should be able to move the ball with ease against an Arizona Cardinals defense that's 30th in the league in EPA and 32nd in success rate.
San Fran's stop unit ranks 18th in defensive success rate and clearly misses injured starters Javon Hargrave and Dre Greenlaw. In addition, All-Pro LB Fred Warner is questionable with an ankle injury. The Cards have some nice pieces on offense, with James Conner at RB and Marvin Harrison at WR. They'll also get a boost with the return of tight end Trey McBride, who helps out their run and passing games.
The Over has gone 5-0 in the last five meetings between these NFC West foes, and the Niners dropped 35+ points in four of those contests. Even if they do the heavy lifting again, we should see this game cash the Over.
Over/Under bet #3: Saints vs Chiefs Under 43 (-115 at FanDuel)
Currently, 71% of the Covers Consensus is on the Over in this matchup, which has me baffled. At some point, the public has to realize that the Kansas City Chiefs rarely get into shootouts anymore, with the Under going 16-5 at Arrowhead Stadium since the start of the 2023 season.
Sure, the Chiefs have the best QB in the world in Patrick Mahomes, but he's limited by his lack of weapons. Travis Kelce looks like a shell of his former self, while top receiver Rashee Rice, starting RB Isiah Pacheco, and Hollywood Brown are all on the IR. Mahomes is dead-last in the NFL in average intended air yards (5.1), and his inability to push the ball up the field will be exposed by a Saints defense that is fourth in the league in dropback EPA and success rate.
The New Orleans Saints offense plays at a slow tempo and runs the ball at the highest rate in the league. That approach drains time off the clock but likely won't result in much success due to all their injuries up front. They were running the ball extremely well through the first two weeks, but center Erik McCoy is now on the IR while tackle Taliese Fuaga, guard Cesar Ruiz, and McCoy's replacement Shane Lemieux are all questionable.
That's bad news against a stout K.C. defensive front anchored by All-Pro DT Chris Jones. With the Saints sixth in the league in scoring defense (17.5 ppg) and the Chiefs just behind them (18.0), expect a lower-scoring battle on prime time.
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