Moving the spread across multiple key numbers is the name of the game with teasers, and I’ve pinpointed a handful of teams to pick Sunday, October 13.
The Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles both face horrible offenses and headline our top NFL picks for Week 6.
NFL Week 6 teaser picks
6-point teaser
- Texans (-1)
- Eagles (-3.5)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Week 6 Teaser
Texans (-7 to -1) vs Patriots
The New England Patriots have dropped four straight and rank 28th in both DVOA and overall grade, per PFF. Injuries have taken a toll, and New England hasn’t played sound defense.
Additionally, the Pats have been even worse on the other side of the ball. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye is drawing the start Sunday, and he wasn’t sharp in garbage time against the New York Jets in Week 3.
This is also a tough matchup for the rookie.
The Houston Texans have the third-best defensive DVOA, rank fourth in pass-rush win rate, and allow the fourth-lowest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.
The Texans offense will put it all together with a statement win sooner than later, and New England is the perfect opponent for quarterback C.J. Stroud to hit stride against. After all, the Pats enter Week 5 sitting 28th in defensive DVOA.
Eagles (-9.5 to -3.5) vs Browns
Dropping the Philadelphia Eagles down to -3.5 isn’t a traditional teaser leg, but I have confidence in Philly. I’m anticipating a huge offensive showing with wide receivers A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) both expected back in action following the Week 5 bye.
It’s also a cushy matchup for the Philly defense, as the Cleveland Browns have the lowest EPA per play and rank last in both offensive DVOA and offense grade, per PFF. QB Deshaun Watson also owns the lowest adjusted EPA per play, and I don’t expect the visiting Browns to keep pace with the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field.
Meanwhile, Cleveland's offense line is banged up, and the stop unit isn't a beacon of health either. In particular, stars Myles Garrett (Achilles) and Denzel Ward (hamstring) both missed Wednesday’s practice and probably won’t be playing at 100% if they hit the field Sunday.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Best Week 6 teaser spots
- Texans (-7 to -1)
- Eagles (-9.5 to -3.5)
- Falcons vs. Panthers (-6 to pick’em)
- Ravens vs. Commanders (-6.5 to -0.5)
- Broncos vs. Chargers (+3 to +9)
The Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens can both be teased down to moneyline margins, and I like both to extend their winning streaks. Atlanta has a divisional game against the last-place Carolina Panthers, while Baltimore hosts the up-and-coming Washington Commanders.
Atlanta won’t let this NFC South matchup sneak up because they can move to 3-0 in the division. The Falcons are also superior on both sides of the ball in both DVOA and PFF grade.
The Ravens' offense should also put a big number on the board against a Washington stop unit ranking 24th in defensive DVOA and allowing the sixth-highest EPA per play. Additionally, this will be the toughest test for Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels, and I expect the uptick in class to be too much.
The Denver Broncos are at home this week and have won three straight. Head coach Sean Payton has the team playing better than the sum of its parts, and Denver has beaten the Los Angeles Chargers in each of their past three meetings. I anticipate this to be a one-possession game, and the Broncos can be moved all the way to +9.
Not intended for use in MA.
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