The Montreal Canadiens host the Colorado Avalanche at the Bell Centre on Monday, and the home team is a huge underdog in the NHL odds.
Colorado superstars Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen have put the team on their backs out of the holiday break, and the trio have combined for an eye-popping 37 points across the past nine games. Montreal doesn’t have the same star power jumping the boards, and the Habs will have a hard time shutting down the Avs.
Here are my free NHL picks for the Avalanche vs. Canadiens on Monday, January 15.
Avalanche vs Canadiens odds
Avalanche vs Canadiens predictions
The Colorado Avalanche have won three straight, and the Montreal Canadiens represent a huge downtick in class compared to Colorado’s past five opponents. The Stars, Panthers, Bruins, Golden Knights, and Maple Leafs are all hanging at the top of the Stanley Cup odds, after all.
Colorado has cruised to a 7-1-1 record out of the holiday break while driving 5-on-5 possession with a 54.0 Corsi For percentage, and the Avs have scored 11 times on the man advantage.
The return to action hasn’t been as kind to the Canadiens. Montreal is 2-5-2 and has the second-worst CF% at 5-on-5 (42.8%). The Habs also have the fourth-lowest goals for percentage (38.2%) and sixth-lowest expected goals for percentage (44.3%) at 5-on-5 during the slump.
Both teams are dealing with injuries, but Colorado head coach Jared Bednar has opted to lean on his stars. Colorado center Nathan MacKinnon has averaged 24:37 of ice time during the noted nine-game heater, and he’s piled up 15 points with a team-high 61.1 CF% at 5-on-5.
I’m not expecting Montreal to have an answer for Colorado, and with the Canadiens taking the seventh-most minor penalties at 5-on-5 and averaging the 10th-most shorthanded ice time per game, the Avalanche are also positioned to improve on their eighth-ranked 25.0 power-play percentage Monday.
My best bet: Avalanche 3-way moneyline (-133 at SIA)
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Avalanche vs Canadiens same-game parlay
The Avalanche moneyline aligns with my best bet of Colorado winning in regulation, and I don’t expect the Canadiens to find the back of the net enough to challenge this 6.5 total. Montreal has scored the sixth-fewest goals (2.17) and generated the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes during its highlighted nine-game slump.
Additionally, Colorado has scored three or more goals in seven straight and 10 of the past 11. There’s also a huge gap between the two teams in my offensive and defensive ratings. The Avs rank 11th in offense and ninth in defense, while the Habs check out 28th and 25th respectively.
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Avalanche vs Canadiens moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Colorado opened as a -225 road favorite over Montreal at SIA, and after a brief offering of Colorado -250, the line has returned to the opening price at the sportsbook. Montreal is +180 as of Monday afternoon and is in line with the industry-wide numbers. There are smaller vigs available on Colorado through other sportsbooks.
This total is a consensus 6.5, and the higher vig is attached to the Under. As highlighted, Montreal has struggled offensively out of the holiday break, and Colorado has a huge edge in 5-on-5 play. It’s also worth noting SIA has posted a 6.0 total multiple times with the Over carrying the higher vig, but it has never lasted.
Avalanche vs Canadiens betting trend to know
Colorado has won seven of its past eight games, and Montreal has lost 11 of its past 14 games at home. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Canadiens.
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Avalanche vs Canadiens game info
Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
Date: | Monday, January 15, 2024 |
Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | Altitude, Sportsnet |
Avalanche vs Canadiens latest injuries
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