Avalanche vs Canadiens Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Colorado Keeps Bell Centre Quiet

Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche are cooking right now, and our NHL picks don't expect the shaky Montreal Canadiens to put up much of a fight when Colorado visits tonight.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Jan 15, 2024 • 13:31 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Montreal Canadiens host the Colorado Avalanche at the Bell Centre on Monday, and the home team is a huge underdog in the NHL odds.

Colorado superstars Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen have put the team on their backs out of the holiday break, and the trio have combined for an eye-popping 37 points across the past nine games. Montreal doesn’t have the same star power jumping the boards, and the Habs will have a hard time shutting down the Avs.

Here are my free NHL picks for the Avalanche vs. Canadiens on Monday, January 15.

Avalanche vs Canadiens odds

Avalanche vs Canadiens predictions

The Colorado Avalanche have won three straight, and the Montreal Canadiens represent a huge downtick in class compared to Colorado’s past five opponents. The Stars, Panthers, Bruins, Golden Knights, and Maple Leafs are all hanging at the top of the Stanley Cup odds, after all.

Colorado has cruised to a 7-1-1 record out of the holiday break while driving 5-on-5 possession with a 54.0 Corsi For percentage, and the Avs have scored 11 times on the man advantage.

The return to action hasn’t been as kind to the Canadiens. Montreal is 2-5-2 and has the second-worst CF% at 5-on-5 (42.8%). The Habs also have the fourth-lowest goals for percentage (38.2%) and sixth-lowest expected goals for percentage (44.3%) at 5-on-5 during the slump. 

Both teams are dealing with injuries, but Colorado head coach Jared Bednar has opted to lean on his stars. Colorado center Nathan MacKinnon has averaged 24:37 of ice time during the noted nine-game heater, and he’s piled up 15 points with a team-high 61.1 CF% at 5-on-5.

I’m not expecting Montreal to have an answer for Colorado, and with the Canadiens taking the seventh-most minor penalties at 5-on-5 and averaging the 10th-most shorthanded ice time per game, the Avalanche are also positioned to improve on their eighth-ranked 25.0 power-play percentage Monday.

My best bet: Avalanche 3-way moneyline (-133 at SIA)

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Avalanche vs Canadiens same-game parlay

Avalanche moneyline

Under 6.5 goals

Avalanche team total Over 2.5 

The Avalanche moneyline aligns with my best bet of Colorado winning in regulation, and I don’t expect the Canadiens to find the back of the net enough to challenge this 6.5 total. Montreal has scored the sixth-fewest goals (2.17) and generated the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes during its highlighted nine-game slump.

Additionally, Colorado has scored three or more goals in seven straight and 10 of the past 11. There’s also a huge gap between the two teams in my offensive and defensive ratings. The Avs rank 11th in offense and ninth in defense, while the Habs check out 28th and 25th respectively.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Avalanche vs Canadiens moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Colorado opened as a -225 road favorite over Montreal at SIA, and after a brief offering of Colorado -250, the line has returned to the opening price at the sportsbook. Montreal is +180 as of Monday afternoon and is in line with the industry-wide numbers. There are smaller vigs available on Colorado through other sportsbooks.

This total is a consensus 6.5, and the higher vig is attached to the Under. As highlighted, Montreal has struggled offensively out of the holiday break, and Colorado has a huge edge in 5-on-5 play. It’s also worth noting SIA has posted a 6.0 total multiple times with the Over carrying the higher vig, but it has never lasted.

Avalanche vs Canadiens betting trend to know

Colorado has won seven of its past eight games, and Montreal has lost 11 of its past 14 games at home. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Canadiens.

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Avalanche vs Canadiens game info

Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC
Date: Monday, January 15, 2024
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Altitude, Sportsnet

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Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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