The Colorado Avalanche offense has awoken from their slumber as bodies are returning. That isn’t great news for the Calgary Flames tonight who are getting longer on the moneyline.
Nathan MacKinnon has been back for over two weeks, is up to game speed, and has 11 points in his last five games. He’ll face a Calgary team that is returning from a five-game road trip and leads the Avs in the standings by four points with three games in hand. This is a massive game for the Avs in terms of standings.
Find out my best bet for the Avalanche vs. Flames in my NHL betting picks and predictions.
Avalanche vs Flames best odds
Avalanche vs Flames picks and predictions
The Avalanche have scored 13 goals over the last two games and have welcomed back Valeri Nichushkin, who had four shots on goal and a power-play point in his return Monday vs. Detroit.
Nichushkin is playing on the second line with Mikko Rantanen, which is a great spot to be on the road tonight as the Flames will be likely matching up with the Nathan MacKinnon line — leaving Nichushikin with the better matchups.
He is averaging 3.13 shots per game and is 11-5 to the Over on the season. His shot total has closed at 3.5 prior to the injury.
Calgary isn't the best team to target for shots on goal but that is priced in, but what isn’t, is Nichushkin’s shooter role with solid matchups. The Flames will be paying more attention to MacKinnon who has 11 points over his last five games.
Nichushkin is also on the top power play and had an assist and two shots on Monday.
My best bet: Valeri Nichushkin Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125)
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Avalanche vs Flames moneyline analysis
The Flames opened at -145 on the moneyline but are getting longer, with this price having moved to -124 in some places.
Colorado has been a profitable team to fade this season (-$360 on the ML) but Calgary has been even more profitable at -$634. The Avalanche are still the No. 2 Stanley Cup betting favorite, as they currently sit outside of a playoff spot.
The Avs just wrecked the Sens and Red Wings by a combined score of 13-3, but also lost to the Blackhawks before that.
However, Nichushkin is back for Colorado which is big news as it rounds out this top-six unit, and if the Flames try to shut down the MacKinnon line, the second line of Nichuskin and Rantanen should have a great matchup.
These are two similar teams in terms of goal differential, point percentage, and special teams, but the Avalanche are getting healthier and the market is agreeing with that.
Colorado is 11-9 straight up on the road this year, and although we’ve heard this song and dance about “turning a corner” about the Avs plenty of times, this will be just the second game since October 25 that MacKinnon, Evan Rodrigues, and Nichushkin have been in the lineup together.
No. 2 goalie Pavel Francouz has looked good in an expanded role since returning from injury (two wins in three games) while Calgary goalie Jacob Markstrom has a .890 SV% over the last 30 days (11 games).
With Colorado's second line much stronger thanks to the return of Nichushkin, it's a better road team if the Flames try to match up vs. the MacKinnon line. I have the Avalanche as a favorite on neutral ice and +105 tonight. The opening line of Colorado +125 was worth the price but this line has become more efficient and is not worth betting on the visitors if you devalue home-ice advantage.
Avalanche vs Flames Over/Under analysis
Combined, these two teams are 37-50 O/U on the season, making them two of the most profitable Under teams in hockey — but that's priced into tonight’s total of 6.0 that sits at -110 aside.
The Avs sit in the Bottom 10 in goals per game, but the majority of those games came with massive injuries to the top-six forward group.
The Colorado power play could do some damage as it’s 3-for-6 over its last two games and had a pair of goals in Nichushkin’s return Monday.
The Flames have a legit penalty kill but they also take penalties at a Top 10 rate. Conversely, the Avs have a Bottom 10 penalty kill on the road and Over bettors could get one or two goals with the man advantage tonight.
Colorado currently sits 29th in goals for at 5-on-5, which is unsustainable considering its Fenwick/Corsi and xGoal%.
This was a Top-4 offense a season ago and should trend toward a higher-scoring team in the second half. The matchup vs. the average goalie tandem of Markstrom and Dan Vladar is also advantageous for the visitors.
I’m leaning on this Over and think the push and Over are more than 60% probable.
Avalanche vs Flames betting trend to know
The Underdog is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs Flames.
Avalanche vs Flames game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 18, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude, Sportsnet One |
