The Colorado Avalanche have quietly won six out of their last seven games and have been on an offensive explosion. Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t slowed down much either.
These teams have ranked in the Top 5 league-wide in scoring the past two weeks and my Avalanche vs. Lightning predictions anticipate more of the same.
I explain why I like the Over with my NHL picks ahead of tonight's 7:30 p.m. ET puck drop at Amalie Arena live on Bally Sports Sun.
Avalanche vs Lightning prediction
My best bet
Over 6.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
At the start of the year, the Colorado Avalanche had massive goaltending issues. Thankfully, Alexandar Georgiev has looked better as of late, posting a 5-2-0 record in his last seven starts and earning a .910 SV% with a 2.44 GAA.
Despite this recent boost, he will face a very strong Tampa Bay Lightning offense averaging 3.80 goals per game over the last five.
Anthony Cirelli has caught fire upfront for the Bolts, scoring six goals in his last five games, finding the back of the net at least once each time. The Lightning are getting contributions from nearly everyone in the lineup, which will make them a little extra dangerous tonight.
The real player to watch however is Mikko Rantanen, who has 10 goals and 17 points over his last nine games. The Avalanche have a three-headed monster in Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar giving headaches to opponents on a nightly basis.
Tampa’s power play could be a difference-maker as well, as the Bolts have converted on 28.6% of their man advantages over the last five games.
With numerous weapons on both sides, this game should be played very back and forth with plenty of high-danger chances.
Avalanche vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Avalanche moneyline
First period Over 1.5
Mikko Rantanen 3+ shots on goal
The Avalanche have been playing some excellent hockey and their momentum continues to build as they get healthier. They were missing a ton of key pieces in the early going, but they're starting to look more like the Avalanche team that we’ve seen over the past few years. Georgiev is looking the best he’s looked all season, and no one's slowing down MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar.
The Lightning are currently averaging 1.11 goals in the first period, while the Avalanche are allowing 1.38. The teams will trade scoring chances from the get-go, and while the numbers in the opening frame might not support the Avalanche, it wouldn’t surprise me if they came out hot in the first 20 minutes tonight.
Rantanen is averaging 3.05 shots on goal this season and there aren’t many players who are hotter right now. Rantanen has hit this prop in two of his last three games and three of five.
If Colorado is going to win this game tonight, he’s going to be a big factor in it.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Avalanche vs Lightning odds
Avalanche vs Lightning live odds
Avalanche vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Colorado +1.5 (-260) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+210)
- Moneyline: Colorado -110 | Tampa Bay -110
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-120) | Under 6.5 (+100)
Avalanche vs Lightning trend
The Colorado Avalanche have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 95 games (+14.50 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Lightning.
How to watch Avalanche vs Lightning
| Location: | Amalie Arena, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Monday, 11-25-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ALT2, BSSUN |
Avalanche vs Lightning latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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