We’ve got 16 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Colorado Avalanche.
There will be a lot of star power in this game, and the NHL odds expect a high-scoring affair. Both squads have been excellent lately at 5-on-5, which is why special teams may end up being the X-factor in tonight’s game.
Find out why in my free NHL picks and predictions for Avalanche vs. Leafs on January 13.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs odds
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs predictions
It’ll be a star-studded affair Saturday night at Scotiabank Arena when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Colorado Avalanche.
The Avs have been one of the hottest teams in the league, winning eight of their last 10 games, and are coming off a shutout victory against the Golden Knights.
As for the Maple Leafs, they last played on Thursday, falling 4-3 in overtime to the Islanders. However, the Leafs played well in that contest and won 60% of the 5-on-5 minutes according to Natural Stat Trick.
So what was the difference in the game you ask? “Rotten" special teams play, according to Leafs bench boss Sheldon Keefe.
Toronto failed to score on its lone power play chance but allowed two goals on the penalty kill. In fact, the Leafs have allowed six goals on their last 15 short-handed opportunities.
Fading the Leafs penalty kill is exactly where the value lies tonight in this matchup, especially with a red-hot Avs power play. Colorado is operating at a 35% success rate on the man-advantage over its last 10 games and has netted at least one goal on PP in six straight games.
Nathan Mackinnon has been a big reason for that, as he sits second in the NHL with 28 power play points this season. However, his odds are a bit pricey at -135.
Thus, I'll turn to Mikko Rantanen, Mackinnon's PP1 line-mate and the NHL’s third-highest scorer on the man advantage.
Rantanen is riding a three-game point streak on the power play and boasts 10 PP points in as many games, factoring in 10 of the teams’ last 14 tallies in that situation. Given Toronto’s dismal 60% success rate on the penalty kill, there’s a strong likelihood that Rantanen will play a huge factor on special teams tonight.
My best bet: Mikko Rantanen Over 0.5 power play points (+100 at SIA)
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Avalanche vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Mikko Rantanen anytime goalscorer
Avalanche team total Over 3.5 goals
Austin Matthews anytime goalscorer
For leg one of my same-game parlay, let’s go with an anytime goal from Rantanen. My best bet is for him to record a point on the power play, and he leads the Avs with five goals on the man advantage over the team’s last 10 games. Even at 5-on-5, Rantanen is a prolific goal scorer who will see plenty of shot volume from the right spots to cash one tonight.
Next up, I like the Avalanche to go Over their team total of 3.5 goals, as it’s a number they’ve eclipsed in four of their last five games. For my final leg, let’s roll with an anytime goal from Auston Matthews. The Leafs superstar has at least one goal in 12 of his last 17 games and has scored 10 times in 12 career outings against the Avs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Avalanche vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Avalanche and Leafs enter tonight’s game in a pick'em situation, with both sides being offered at -110. These two teams have alternated wins over their last six meetings, with Colorado winning the last contest 2-1 via a shootout.
The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6.5 goals, with the favored side being the Over at -140, while the Under is offering plus-money at +115 odds. There’s a lot of firepower between these two offenses, and history suggests the Over may be the play, as it is 7-2-1 over the last 10 meetings between these two.
Given the fact that both these two teams sit third and fourth in league scoring and combine for an average of 7.2 goals, I’d back the Over in this one.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Avalanche have cashed their team total Over in four of their last five games. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs.
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Avalanche vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, January 13, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude, Sportsnet |
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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