The Toronto Maple Leafs have been perfect following their last nine losses, with a 9-0 record in that spot dating back to early January. They haven’t dropped two straight contests in 27 games.
That perfect record will be put to the test tonight with the Colorado Avalanche, who are fresh off an eight-goal performance vs. Montreal, in town as a +125 road dogs.
However, with Auston Matthews seemingly over a wrist injury, will it be his contributions that help the Leafs get two points and avoid the two-game skid?
Find out my best NHL bets for the Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs best odds
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Jonas Siegel wrote a very telling piece for The Athletic today, highlighting the wrist issue that Auston Matthews has been dealing with, which was speculated heavily in the media and turned out to be right.
It sounds like Matthews is finally starting to feel like himself after dealing with the injury for the majority of the Leafs' season. His recent production would also prove this, as the center has goals in three straight and six points over that stretch. He’s also finding his shot, which was something that he had struggled with. Matthews has at least four shots in five straight games, which is something he hadn’t done since Christmas.
“It just felt like something was off.”
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) March 15, 2023
What’s been bugging Auston Matthews – and why he’s finally starting to feel like himself again: https://t.co/pAAE4GxuMD
Matthews also gets the benefit of skating with Mitch Marner, who has more points than Leon Draissaitl since Christmas, and is playing on a power play that is scoring at 30% since February which is only worse than the Oilers.
The Avalanche have been anything but perfect in their own end. The last four playoff teams they’ve faced have scored a total of 22 goals with New Jersey (seven), Dallas (seven), and Los Angeles (five) doing most of the damage.
Alex Georgiev has been average in net for the Avs over the last month. He’s getting supported by a great offense, as his 9-3-2 record shows since February 1, but he’s allowed three or more in eight of those 15 games with a sub-900 save percentage on the road over that stretch.
Getting Matthews to score at +120 is not an everyday occurrence. This is one of the best prices I’ve seen on him all season and now that he’s healthy and heating up, he might be an auto-bet going forward.
Toronto always rebounds after a loss (9-0 SU following its last nine losses) and with seven defensemen again, the top line will get big minutes in a potential shootout.
My best bet: Auston Matthews anytime goal (+120 at SIA)
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Avalanche vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
Living inside Toronto media can certainly create recency bias with the Maple Leafs. They're coming off a 4-3 loss to the Sabres on Monday and played, what coach Sheldon Keefe described as, “the worst period of the entire season.”
This team can look awful in defeat, but their consistency can be lost on bettors who are expecting those results to carry over from game to game. That’s just not the case with the team.
Toronto hasn’t lost back-to-back games since January 5 — a stretch of 27 games. Considering all the media hype about problems with the team, coaching, etc., it's 17-9-1 over that stretch with a plus-0.78 goal differential per game.
The Leafs also have a Top-10 offense, a Top-10 GAA, as well as arguably the best combination of special teams with the No. 2 power play and penalty kill. This is the fourth-best team in Goal% at 5-on-5 and now is getting elite contributions from the special teams.
Add in a starting goalie in Ilya Samsonov, who is an incredible 17-2-1 at home with a 2.01 goals against, and the Leafs are a Top-4 team in hockey despite much criticism in the media.
Colorado comes in tonight as +125 road dogs, which is the longest it has been since early February (+130 at Tampa in a 5-0 loss). The Avs just had a cupcake game vs. the Habs where they scored eight goals but also allowed four. They’re 8-7 SU as a plus-money dog on the season but enter tonight dealing with more injuries.
Colorado has lost a ton of man games to injury this season and will be without the services of role-player Arturri Lehkonen, who was playing a top-six role and with the first power-play unit. He's out for an extended time and this already shorthanded roster is scrambling to fill the void.
The top line of Evan Rodriguez, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen is still a force (lesser on the road without the last change), but after that, this offense has plenty of holes with JT Compher and possibly Alex Newhook on the second line.
Despite the awkwardness of dressing seven defensemen again tonight, the Leafs will do what they always do: Play solid hockey following a poor performance. Against a top-heavy, injured team like Colorado that has struggled to keep the puck out of the net vs. good teams of late, it wouldn’t surprise me to see another solid performance at home tonight.
Colorado is quite an overvalued team so I don’t see this price getting any shorter than -150 for the home side.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
Sometimes bettors just talk themselves into an Over with good offenses and if you’ve done that with the Leafs and/or the Avs, you’ve likely struggled to return a profit. Tonight might be different, though.
Combined, both of these clubs are 52-71-8 O/U on the season. Colorado comes in following a 12-goal game in Montreal and is 4-5-1 to the Over in its last 10 but seeing an average of 7.10 total goals per game.
Toronto has seen at least seven total goals scored in six of its last 10 games and has had a closing total of 7 in four of those games including its two most recent matches — a seven-goal game vs. Buffalo and an 11-goal game vs. Edmonton.
Matthews is apparently as healthy as he’s been all season and the combination of an awkward seven-man defensive rotation, coupled with some shaky goaltending, has me looking for the Over 6.5.
Samsonov has been great at home but he’s 3-2 SU with a 3.00 and a sub-900 save percentage over his last five home games. His current numbers are unsustainable and there’s a reason why many believe Matt Murray is the No. 1 goalie when healthy. He’s 11th in goals saved above expected but has expectedly regressed over the last two months.
The Colorado offense is top-heavy but one I’ll trust chasing a lead. The Avs are 9-5-1 O/U in their last 15 losses and their 4.10 goals per game over their last 10 is aided by a 30% power play.
Cale Makar’s return to the lineup has also changed the dynamic of this team offensively, as the Avs are scoring 4.00 goals per game since his return after averaging 3.41 goals per game during his concussion issues.
Since last season, these teams have met three times and goals have been easy to come by with the Over going 3-0 and 28 total goals being scored.
With two average goaltenders, a total that can still move north, and a healthy Auston Matthews, I’m happy to hit the Over 6.5 up to -130.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs Maple Leafs.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 15, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, Sportsnet |
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs key injuries
