The Colorado Avalanche can be the first Western Conference team to clinch a playoff spot with a single point tonight in their meeting with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Tonight’s match is the second game of a home-and-home series that saw the Avs take a 3-2 victory at home on Saturday.
Can the visitors win their ninth game over their last 12 and continue to separate themselves in the West? Can the Penguins catch the Rangers for the second spot in the Metro despite their 2-4 record straight up over their last six? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Avalanche vs. Penguins.
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Avalanche vs Penguins odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Avalanche opened as +105 underdogs but are gaining some confidence in the market as they have since moved 10 points to -105 with a total of 6.0 that has hit 6.5 at some books. These two clubs met just last Saturday with the Avalanche closing as -140 home favorites with a total of 6.0.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Avalanche vs Penguins predictions
Predictions made on 4/05/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Avalanche vs Penguins game info
• Location: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Tuesday, April 5, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Altitude, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Avalanche vs Penguins betting preview
Key injuries
Avalanche: Nazem Kadri F (Out), Bowen Byram D (Probable), Gabriel Landeskog F (Out).
Penguins: Jason Zucker F (Questionable), Kasperi Kapanen F (Questionable), Danton Heinen F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Avalanche vs Penguins head-to-head record since 2014-15
Avalanche: 5-5 SU, 30 goals for.
Penguins: 5-5 SU, 32 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 12-2-2 in the Avalanche’s last 16 versus a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Penguins.
Avalanche vs Penguins picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Avalanche come into tonight’s meeting having taken two points from the Penguins last Saturday as -140 home favorites. It was a tightly-played contest with the game winner coming in the final five minutes.
There were 78 total shots on net but Tristan Jarry and Darcy Kuemper stood tall. So with the same matchup in a different location, should we be expecting similar results?
The Avs won that home meeting but also won the xgoal battle 4.13 to 3.19. They come into this meeting with a 9-3-2 record over the last 30 days which is the fifth-best point percentage in the league — the Penguins are 7-7 SU over that same stretch. If Pittsburgh wants to win, they’re going to have to find ways to get past Kuemper and that's easier said than done.
After a rough start to the beginning of the season, Kuemper has settled in and become one of the best goalies since the calendar hit 2022. Since January 1, the Colorado starter is 19-4-3 with a 2.10 GAA and a .936 SV%. Those are better numbers than Vezina frontrunner Igor Shesterkin.
Missing captain Gabriel Landeskog and center Nazem Kadri hurts offensively, but this team is 8-1-1 without Landeskog and has a league-best 1.90 GAA.
Making this squad even stronger defensively tonight is the addition of defenseman Bowen Byram who may suit up for the first time since early January.
The Penguins come into tonight having dropped four of their last six games with their last three wins in regulation coming against the Red Wings, Blue Jackets, and Coyotes.
At home, the Pens have the league’s No. 14 point percentage while Tristan Jarry has a 2.49 GAA at home compared to a 2.17 GAA on the road. Tonight’s starter has a 16-12 SU record at home.
Beating the Pens means scoring at 5-on-5 as Pittsburgh has the league’s No. 2 penalty kill. Colorado sits in the Top 5 in most 5-on-5 metrics including goals for and goal percentage.
The Avs can get it done without the man advantage, but if Pittsburgh finds itself in the box it’ll face a power play that has 12 PP goals over its last 10 games and is the league’s best PP over that stretch with a 44.7% efficiency.
The Penguins have been dealing with an illness that has affected many in the locker room including three bottom-six forwards who come into tonight as questionable.
Pittsburgh has been a streaky team this season and getting Colorado as an underdog is a rare occurrence. This is the best team in the league, just beat Pittsburgh three days ago, and is riding the hottest goalie in all of hockey. Byram’s return is a boost for the visitors who we’re willing to back tonight at -105.
Prediction: Avalanche moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The last meeting hit the Under which shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Avs have been playing great Under hockey for those that have been following which is in contrast to their early-season play.
They are 9-2 to the Under across their last 11 games, have been suppressing goals at a league-best rate, and are missing some quality offensive pieces. Only three teams have managed to score at least three regulations goals against them over their last 11.
Pittsburgh can hold the fort too and play some low-scoring games. It's hit the Under in six of its last 10 games and has been held to two or fewer goals three times over its last five.
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are scoring over 1.50 points per game over the last two weeks but the Avalanche might be the hardest team to score on in the league right now and Kuemper is seeing the puck well.
The meeting on Saturday was also a very disciplined affair as the Penguins didn’t even get a power-play opportunity and Colorado had just a single chance with the man advantage. Pittsburgh takes the least amount of penalties in hockey which is likely a good thing as tonight's opponent has an unstoppable power play of late.
Kuemper has been a great goalie to back for the Under. He is 8-0 to the Under in his last eight starts and has a 1.38 GAA and a .959 SV%. Jarry has also been stopping the rubber and is 2-5-1 O/U across his last eight starts.
This game features two solid goaltenders who can steal a game and power-play opportunities (and goals) could be at a minimum with how these two teams play. It’s the Under 6.5 for us especially after the last game had a closing total of 6.0.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Best bet
The market has moved in the favor of the Avalanche and we’re thinking that’s the smart side tonight. Colorado comes into this game with plenty of rest and that’s always a good thing for them as they are 8-0 SU playing on two days of rest in their last eight.
The Avs are finally dealing with some adversity as they continue to win without Landeskog and Kadri. Byram suiting up should fire up the locker room and if the Pens give this Colorado PP any opportunities, it could be playing with the lead early which is a deathwish with how well Kuemper has been playing of late.
Pick: Avalanche moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
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