Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Leafs Punish Chicago's Inept Offense

The shorthanded Toronto Maple Leafs will look to pick up their second victory in four games as the Chicago Blackhawks roll into town. Toronto has been playing some loose hockey of late and is riding a 6-0 Over streak.

Can the Leafs fix their penalty killing woes and stop Patrick Kane & Co.? Can the Blackhawks find a way to win without Marc-Andre Fleury in net? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs.

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Toronto opened at -235 on the moneyline and has moved 10 cents to -245. The total opened at 6 and is leaning to the Under (-120). In the last meeting in Chicago, the Leafs closed at -210 with a total of 6.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs predictions

• Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-105)
• Prediction: Over 6 (+100)
• Best bet: Over 6 (+100)

Predictions made on 12/11/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, December 11, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, NBCS-CHI

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Blackhawks: Caleb Jones D (Questionable), Jujhar Khaira F (Out).

Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner F (Out), Travis Dermott D (Out), Jason Spezza (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Ilya Mikheyev F Questionable).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (since 2016)

Blackhawks: 7-4 SU, 47 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 4-7 SU, 35 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in Maple Leafs’ last six overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs.

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Puck line analysis

Heading into the last meeting back on October 27, the Maple Leafs were 2-5 SU on the season and getting a lot of heat in the media for a poor start. But following the Leafs’ 3-2, come-from-behind overtime win, they've gone on to win 16 of their next 20 games. However, a new struggle has presented itself for Sheldon Keefe’s team.

A plethora of injuries has thinned out this once-dominant team and exposed weaknesses on the blueline and penalty kill which have been compounded from average goaltending. Since Mitch Marner’s injury, the Leafs have allowed 19 goals across four games, with six of them coming shorthanded. A pair of injuries on the blue line has also made Keefe get creative with his D-pairings, which hasn’t yielded positive results yet. Despite that, the books have a lot of faith in this Toronto team Saturday night, entering the contest as heavy -245 favorites on the moneyline. 

This might actually be a good matchup for the Leafs. They’ve faced some Top-10 offenses over the last 10 days, but Chicago’s 2.21 goals per game ranks third-last in hockey, and its 1.31 even-strength goals per game is the worst mark in hockey. If Keefe’s new lineup can’t slow down the Blackhawks, they might be in bigger trouble than we think.

Jack Campbell has allowed three goals or more in four straight starts and will get a well-deserved breather tonight as Petr Mrazek will make his first start since October 30. He’s only seen two starts this year and didn’t finish one of them, so it’s tough to gauge his performance to date. The biggest takeaway here is that the recent play of Campbell was substandard and that Mrazek shouldn’t be considered a big downgrade. 

The Leafs will get to see backup goalie Kevin Kankinen, who made 37 saves in the first meeting but was beaten in overtime by William Nylander. Lankinen has made just five starts since facing Toronto and is 2-3 SU with a 3.41 GAA and a .883 SV%. Despite the solid effort against the Leafs, Lankinen is a Bottom-10 goalie in goals saved above expected.

The Blackhawks have scored three or fewer goals in regulation in nine of their last 10 games and now have to face a Toronto offense that has scored at least three goals in nine straight and has eight power-play goals over its last four games. Chicago just can’t keep up with this team offensively, as it has scored more than three regulation goals in just three of its 10 wins on the season. Winning high-scoring games is not in this team’s repertoire and they’ve been riding Marc Andre-Fleury’s hot streak of late.

Toronto closed at -210 on the ML in Chicago in the last meeting, which puts Saturday’s price of -240 in the same ballpark. The ML offers no value to backers, so Leaf supporters will have to look to the puck line (-105) for a more reasonable wager. Chicago has 17 losses on the season, with 12 of those defeats coming by two or more goals. Toronto will be looking to tighten things up defensively, and though we don’t think it will have success with it going forward, Chicago’s anemic offense offers a great matchup.  

Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-105)

Over/Under analysis

The last meeting saw just four goals in regulation, but the Leafs’ offense hadn't gotten rolling yet and was averaging just 1.86 goals per game at that time. Since then, the Buds are scoring 3.57 goals per game, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. The absence of Mitch Marner hasn’t slowed down the scoring and the power play has been unstoppable, going 8 for 15 since Marner went down.

This hot offense has been complemented with a porous defense, which has been great for Over backers. Toronto is out two starting defensemen and Keefe has resorted to splitting up his second pairing — the new look has not gone well. Turnovers have also been an issue of late and Toronto opponents have been capitalizing with 19 goals in the Leafs’ last four games.

Even this Chicago offense should generate some quality opportunities versus a Toronto defense that's coming off a brutal game. Keefe is mixing up the top line as well, as Ondrej Kase will likely join Auston Matthews. Defensive responsibilities could be affected by the new linemates.

Lankinen and Mrazek should not be trusted with the Under here. A game featuring Jack Campbell and Andrei Vasilevskiy opened with a total of 6 just a game ago, so we don’t see the reason to jump off the Over wagon tonight at +100 to the Over. This number could very well hit 5.5, but as we saw with Thursday’s total versus Tampa Bay, following the market is not always the best move.

Prediction: Over 6 (+100)

Best bet

This might be the best Over stretch that Toronto plays all year. They are weak and inexperienced on the blue line, but the offense is playing with confidence and Matthews has nine goals in eight games. We’re also seeing two backup goalies, with Mrazek just coming off the IR and having completed just one start all year. 

We think the Leafs' early-season Under success is still driving these totals down but this is not the same team we saw two weeks ago. Chicago has a poor offense that relies heavily on its top-six forwards, but if Toronto’s turnovers and poor penalty killing continue, the Blackhawks have a great shot at three goals.

Pick: Over 6 (+100)

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