A pair of star-studded lineups hit the ice at Amalie Arena on Tuesday, February 25, with the Edmonton Oilers visiting the Tampa Bay Lightning.
While plenty of offensive firepower is jumping the bench for both clubs, my Oilers vs. Lightning predictions NHL picks are calling for this total to go Under the number tonight.
Oilers vs Lightning prediction
My Oilers pick
Under 6.5 goals (-105 at BET99)
My Oilers analysis
The Edmonton Oilers have bookended the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off with a three-game losing streak while allowing 18 goals. Before the skid, Edmonton allowed just 2.69 per game during a sterling 24-10-2 stretch.
Additionally, the Oil posted excellent underlying 5-on-5 numbers with a sixth-ranked 52.8 Corsi For percentage and fourth-ranked 54.6 expected goals percentage.
I’m also eyeing this Under 6.5 goals because Tampa Bay Lightning No. 1 goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is rounding into top form with a .939 SV% and 2.00 GAA across his past 11 starts. He’s also been elite on home ice all season with respective .935 and 1.96 marks.
The Oilers have struggled with goaltending all season, but Stuart Skinner has shown flashes. He recorded a rock-solid .918 SV% and 2.29 GAA during the highlighted Edmonton heater. I anticipate him rebounding from a tough return to action and doing his part to help this Under.
I’m also anticipating the Oilers' heightened emphasis on team defense tonight. While Tampa Bay has an excellent offense, it’s top-heavy. The Lightning don’t have a bevy of scoring depth, so Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch can mix and match favorable on-ice matchups even without the luxury of last change.
Oilers vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Oilers moneyline
Under 6.5
Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 shots on goal
The Oilers dropped three games to open the season and hadn’t lost three straight before this stretch, so in addition to them tightening up defensively in front of Skinner, I expect them to return to the win column tonight.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Leon Draisaitl has been limited to just three shots on nine attempts across the past two games. Before the lull, he’d racked up three or more shots in 22 of his prior 28 contests.
Expect Draisaitl to ramp up the shots and attempts tonight, considering he ranks in the 98th percentile of forwards in shots on goal and sports a high-end 58.8 CF% at 5-on-5.
Plus, Tampa Bay sports a middling 49.8 CF% at 5-on-5 while allowing a healthy 28.8 shots per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oilers vs Lightning odds
Oilers vs Lightning live odds
Oilers vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton -1.5 (+205) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-250)
- Moneyline: Edmonton -115 | Tampa Bay -105
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Odds courtesy of BET99
Oilers vs Lightning trend
The Edmonton Oilers have hit the game total Under in 29 of their last 53 away games (+4.75 Units / 8% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Lightning.
How to watch Oilers vs Lightning
| Location | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-25-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN1 |
Oilers vs Lightning latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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