The Toronto Maple Leafs took the first game of a home-and-home with the Columbus Blue Jackets last night in a 3-0 shutout win as -245 road faves. Now, the books have severely adjusted the moneyline as the Leafs opened at -320 but have moved as short as -350.
With both teams turning to backup goalies, and some more physical stuff with the familiarity possibly leaking into tonight’s game, should bettors be expecting a lot more offense tonight at Scotiabank Arena?
Find out my best bet for the Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs in my NHL picks.
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs best odds
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
No team in hockey gives up more shots on goal to defensemen than the Blue Jackets. That’s great news for Morgan Rielly, who collected three shots on goal last night and has at least three in five of his last eight.
Somehow, books have moved his total from 1.5 to 2.5, which is the wrong direction in an elite matchup tonight where he could see more power-play time, with things possibly getting more physical after a 60-minute battle last night.
Taking the juice at -200 for a SOG prop might not interest everyone, and if that’s you, his Over 0.5 assists is also showing value at -110 at SportsInteraction. The Toronto rearguard is averaging 0.74 points per game at home this season and with only one goal on the campaign, they’ve mostly been helpers.
This Toronto offense also could be facing the worst statistical goalie in hockey in Elvis Merzlikins and his 4.42 GAA and .840 save percentage. He’s allowed at least three goals in all but one of his 18 starts this year.
It’s point night for the Leafs and the blueliners have an elite matchup. Rielly's Over 1.5 shot on goal is showing the best winning probability (roughly at -300) and if you can get it at Over 2.5 at even money or better, that should take precedence.
An assist, at -110 in a game where I can see the Leafs scoring six goals is also an appetizing play, for those who want to stay away from the heavy juice.
Rielly hasn’t been stacking points since his return, but this is a player with a track record of success and had 58 assists last season, which was 16th-most in the league. It’s point night for the Buds and Rielly is contributing in a big way tonight.
My best bet: Morgan Rielly Over 0.5 assists (-110 at SIA)
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Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
Bettors who got the Leafs at -230 yesterday were set up nicely. The books overvalued the restart game, as there should’ve been no way Toronto was that long on the road vs. arguably the worst team in hockey. The Buds were -360 in their previous road game in Montreal.
Today’s ML is more indicative of where this price should be and the market is still steaming the home side.
Toronto opened at -330 this morning, then apparently took some money as every book moved to -350 around 9 a.m. ET. I still believe there is room for the Leafs to get shorter.
Toronto is a better team in every aspect — even without Auston Matthews. This is a stronger offensive team that’s facing the worst road offense in hockey, with Columbus scoring just 2.00 goals per game on the road. The Blue Jacket’s minus-1.74 goal differential per game (!) on the road is also the worst mark in hockey.
Now, the Toronto offense will likely get to see goaltender Merzlikins, who is arguably the worst statistical goaltender in all of the league (-1.287 goals saved above expected/60). The Leafs managed just three goals last night vs. Joonas Korpisalo but the netminder was great and finished with 38 saves. The Leafs should flirt with five goals tonight.
The one edge the Jackets have entering this game is not special teams, where they rank in the bottom third in power-play and penalty-kill success, but more so about the matchup in net. Toronto will be starting fourth-stringer Joseph Woll.
The AHL goalie is replacing Matt Murray (ankle) and will be making his first start this year and fifth in the NHL. He was just playing in the AHL All-Star game and is 13-1 SU with a .930 SV% with the Marlies so even that advantage isn’t very strong for the visitors.
There is very little to like about the Blue Jackets and with the books adjusting the moneyline price and the market moving it even shorter, there isn’t much value here. The Leafs’ team total Over 4.5 at +125 is the only thing that might be appetizing to bettors.
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
Last night, we rode on the Under 6.5 at even money and took that to the window fairly easily with the 3-0 finish. Korpisalo kept the Leafs from running away with the game and Ilya Samsonov finished with 30 saves and 2.01 goals saved above expected. It could be a different story tonight, however.
The Leafs are going to flirt with five goals facing Merzlikins, who has a 4.42 GAA across 18 starts and has allowed at least three goals in all but one of those. He also hasn’t played in over two weeks and faces a Toronto team that has the third-best point percentage on home ice.
Last night, we saw just a single power-play goal but that could be a different story tonight, too. Playing the same team in 24 hours should add some animosity to tonight’s meeting and Boone Jenner wasn’t exactly thrilled with the officiating last night and let the refs know it — resulting in an abusive language penalty.
Any more power-play time will favor the Over tonight, which should close higher than it did last night.
I was happy to take the Under last night but after both teams got their legs back after a 10-day break, this game could open up more. Add in some questionable goaltending and a few more power-play opportunities, and a 4-2 game is the floor for tonight.
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in Blue Jackets’ last six games following a home loss of three or more goals. Find more NHL betting trends for Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs.
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, February 11, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs key injuries
