The Boston Bruins were back to full strength last night but still fell 2-1 in a shootout to the Canucks. Now, they will make the short trip to face the waiting Edmonton Oilers, who have dropped three straight games.
Can either team find their earlier-season success tonight? Can the Oilers jumpstart their offense that has stalled out of late with just one 5-on-5 goal in its last two games? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Bruins vs. Oilers.
Bruins vs Oilers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Oilers opened at -125 on the moneyline and this price hasn’t moved much. The total opened at 6 and has hit 5.5 at some books. Boston closed as -135 home favorites versus Edmonton on November 11 with a total of 6 in a game Edmonton won 5-3.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bruins vs Oilers predictions
Predictions made on 12/09/2021 at 11:11 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bruins vs Oilers game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Thursday, December 9, 2021
• Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SN1, NESN
Bruins vs Oilers betting preview
Injuries
Bruins: Linus Ullmark G (Questionable), Anton Blidh F (Questionable).
Oilers: Duncan Keith D (Out), Cody Ceci D (Out), Mike Smith G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Bruins vs Oilers head-to-head record (last 10 games)
Bruins: 3-7 SU, 26 goals for.
Oilers: 7-3 SU, 34 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Bruins are 0-6 SU in their last six games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Oilers.
Bruins vs Oilers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Bruins are getting over a bug that made its way around the locker room over the last week and although all their players returned to the lineup last night, they dropped a 2-1 shootout to the Canucks despite dominating play and coming away with just a point against a weak opponent.
The Bruins are 1-3 SU in their last four games but were without Brad Marchand for three of them while Mike Grzelcyk, Charlie Coyle, and Charlie McAvoy have been dealing with a non-COVID illness that cost some games over that stretch. But can this team rebound with the quick turnaround, especially considering the team’s health?
With Jeremy Swayman playing in net last night, Bruce Cassidy will likely go with backup Linus Ullmark, who was also dealing with that illness as late as Tuesday. Ullmark faced the Oilers back on November 11 and allowed five goals on 28 shots in a 5-3 loss. He's 5-4 SU on the year and sports league-average numbers, with a 2.68 goals against average and a .911 save percentage.
Boston has been unlucky this season in terms of goal production at 5-on-5, as it sits in the bottom half of the league in goal percentage but second in xgoal percentage. In fact, both clubs sport negative goal differentials at even strength but it’s Boston’s offense that is struggling the most over the last 10 games, as its 2.60 goals per game mark sits in the Bottom 8 of the league with eight of their 26 goals coming on the power play.
It’s to the surprise of no one that the Bruins are reliant on the perfection line and power play scoring for the majority of their offense, which could make things difficult to keep up as the Edmonton offense will likely get to see Ullmark who sits in the Bottom-25 in goals saved above expected/60 in the league.
Neither Edmonton goalie has been great and the offense has just two goals in the last two games, but facing a traveling and recovering Boston team that played in overtime and loses an hour in time is a big advantage.
This line closed -135 for the Bruins in Boston back on November 11 and a +110 Boston ML would make sense if not for the back-to-back and likely backup goalie situation. For us, it’s a pick’em on neutral ice, add 20 cents to Edmonton for home ice and add another 20-30 cents for the schedule, which looks more like Edmonton -150 which makes -125 a little short in our books.
Prediction: Oilers ML (-125)
Over/Under analysis
The last meeting between these two clubs saw a total of eight goals (no empty-netters) but just over 5.00 xgoals. Ullmark finished that game with -2.42 goals saved above expected, which was a big reason this game hit the Over. But trusting either likely goaltender with an average performance in net is a tough call.
Ullmark has -3.8 goals saved above expected in just nine starts and could have a tired team still recovering from that illness in front of him — including himself. Offensively, the Bruins should be scoring more than they are at even strength and as the Leafs showed us last month, it’s just a matter of time before the numbers regress to the mean. Boston has the lowest shooting percentage in the league at 5.76%.
Either Edmonton goalie could help correct those numbers for the visitors as Mikko Koskinen has allowed nine goals in his last two starts and has seen his GAA creep north of 3.00 while stopping 26 of 29 Boston shots in the previous meeting. If he sits, Dave Tippett will go with rookie Stuart Skinner, who has allowed four goals in each of his last two starts.
Zero power play goals were scored in the previous meeting and with both clubs boasting Top-6 power plays on the season, it’s hard to imagine the Bruins or Oilers not getting at least one extra-strength tally in the second meeting.
This total is trending down and has hit 5.5 at some books but we’ll hit the plus-money total of 6 to the Over. Edmonton is 8-3-1 O/U at home this season which is one of the best Over marks in the league.
Prediction: Over 6 (+105)
Best bet
The Oilers average 3.75 goals per game at home this year and have a home power play that sits third in success rate at 28 percent. They also struggle to keep goals out, which will keep the home team on the attack offensively and increase the probability of getting looks at an empty net.
Before the recent skid, the Oilers had scored three goals in nine of their last 10 home games and cashed the Over 3.5 team total in seven of them. Connor McDavid has just one point in his last two games while Leon Draisaitl has zero over that time. Keeping these two quiet for three games is nearly impossible, especially considering that they totaled two goals and two assists in the previous meeting last month.
Edmonton has needed to score at least four goals in 12 of their 16 wins this year so getting +137 on the team total seems like better value than the Oilers’ ML.
Pick: Oilers team total Over 3.5 (+137)
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