The Montreal Canadiens welcome a struggling New York Islanders team as they return home following a three-game road trip tonight at the Bell Centre.
My Canadiens vs. Islanders predictions see Montreal continuing to build on its improved defensive play against an Isles squad that has won just three of the last 10 and is reeling offensively.
Let’s break things down further with my NHL picks for December 3 ahead of the puck drop at 7 p.m. ET on TSN2.
Canadiens vs Islanders prediction
My Canadiens pick
Under 6 (-125 at BET99)
My Canadiens analysis
It hasn’t necessarily shown in the results yet but the Montreal Canadiens are trending in the right direction defensively.
They rank 31st in expected goals allowed during 5v5 play this season. Over the last 10 games? They’ve soared up to sixth while also sitting fifth at limiting shot volume.
Montreal has tightened the screws, conceding shots and quality looks far less often than earlier in the season.
The Canadiens should be able to continue that trend against the New York Islanders, who continue to play without key players like Mathew Barzal and Anthony Duclair, predictably struggling to create offense along the way.
During 5v5 play, New York ranks 28th in shots and 27th in expected goals over the last 10 games, generating neither quality nor quantity.
The Islanders have also had a miserable time on the power play while penalty killing has been one of Montreal’s strong suits all season long.
Also working in the Canadiens’ favor is home ice. They’re a much stingier team at the Bell Centre, giving up nearly a full goal less per game compared to on the road.
These two sides met earlier in the season and that game featured seven goals. However, Barzal and Duclair were available for the Isles and both teams started their backup netminder.
This should be a best-on-best matchup between the pipes with Ilya Sorokin and Sam Montembeault both projected to start.
Sorokin owns a rock-solid .915 save percentage and has saved 4.3 goals above expectation thus far.
Montembeault has posted a save percentage slightly above the NHL’s average and ranks 6.8 goals better than his tandem mate, Cayden Primeau, in terms of GSAx.
Patrik Laine is expected to make his Canadiens debut but he hasn’t played an NHL game in nearly a year. It feels unreasonable to expect him to make a significant impact from the word go.
With the Islanders missing key weaponry, the Canadiens improving defensively, and both teams deploying their starting goaltender, the stars are aligning for a relatively low-scoring game.
Canadiens vs Islanders same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6
Bo Horvat Under 3.5 shots on goal
Mike Matheson Over 1.5 shots on goal
The Canadiens rank sixth in total shot attempts allowed over the last 10 games, sandwiched between the Colorado Avalanche and Los Angeles Kings. Good company to be keeping!
One reason they’ve done such a good job at limiting shots is they’ve slowed things down, ranking 32nd in 5v5 pace in that span, and are going up against an Islanders squad that sits 30th.
Bo Horvat has cleared 3.5 shots only 28% of the time this season and 14% on the road. This is not a good matchup for him to see a big spike.
While the Islanders have also played slowly while effectively limiting shots, they have given up a lot of volume to opposing defensemen. In fact, they’ve allowed the second-most shots to the position over the last 10.
Mike Matheson plays a ton of minutes and has attempted at least five shots in nine of the last 10. He’s more than willing to shoot the puck if the opportunity is there.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Canadiens vs Islanders odds
Canadiens vs Islanders live odds
Canadiens vs Islanders opening odds
- Puck line: Montreal +1.5 (-211) | New York -1.5 (+179)
- Moneyline: Montreal +125 | New York -141
- Over/Under: Over 6 (+103) | Under 6 (-118)
Canadiens vs Islanders trend
Bo Horvat has failed to record four shots in eight consecutive road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Islanders.
How to watch Canadiens vs Islanders
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-3-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN2 |
Canadiens vs Islanders latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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