The New York Rangers are rolling along a five-game winning streak and host the Montreal Canadiens at Madison Square Garden tonight.
New York has also surrendered just seven goals during the surge, and No. 1 goalie Igor Shesterkin is coming off a sterling 30-save shutout against the Calgary Flames on Monday. The Rangers are a sizable home favorite in the NHL odds, and they can pull even further ahead in the Metropolitan Division with a win over the Canadiens.
Montreal hasn’t been quite as hot with a 7-9-3 record since the holiday break, and the Habs are also set for a steep step up in class following a 5-0 home win over the basement-dwelling Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday.
Here are my free NHL picks for the Canadiens vs. Rangers matchup on Thursday, February 15.
Canadiens vs Rangers odds
Canadiens vs Rangers predictions
This is a rare matchup where I don’t have a strong statistical lean on the moneyline or the total. The New York Rangers have outperformed their underlying metrics, but the Montreal Canadiens aren’t a team I’m looking to target on the road against the rolling Blueshirts.
As a result, I’m turning to the NHL player props market with my best bet for this game.
Canadiens defense Mike Matheson is in the midst of the best offensive showing of his career, and the 29-year-old blueliner is also rolling along his own heater with 12 points through his past 13 contests. Still, there are a couple warning signs catching my eye that call for negative regression for Matheson.
To start, 20 of his 39 points have come with the man advantage, and the Rangers aren’t a favorable matchup for opposing power plays. New York ranks fifth in penalty-kill percentage (83.7%) while spending the sixth least time shorthanded per game (4:39) with the ninth fewest minor penalties taken at 5-on-5.
Additionally, Matheson’s scoring uptick aligns with the Canadiens scoring efficiency improving despite generating the same number of quality chances.
Matheson recorded a 24th-ranked 1.62 points among regular defensemen while on the ice for 3.31 expected goals per 60 minutes through the first 40 games of the season, and the Habs registered a 9.72 team shooting percentage with him on the ice. He’s climbed to a 10th-ranked 2.11 points per 60 while Montreal’s xGF per 60 has only improved to 3.33 over the past 13 contests. The difference has been the Canadiens climbing to an 11.17 team shooting percentage with Matheson on the ice.
Pair the New York penalty-kill success with the Rangers allowing just seven goals during their noted five-game winning streak, and statistics correction kicking in for Matheson on Thursday is in the cards.
My best bet: Mike Matheson Under 0.5 points (+100 at SIA)
Canadiens vs Rangers same-game parlay
Rangers moneyline
Under 5.5
Even with the Rangers barely winning the possession (50.3%) and expected goals (50.1%) battles at 5-on-5 this season, they’ve been excellent on special teams with a fifth-ranked 25.6 power-play percentage complementing the noted fifth-ranked PK%. I also value New York sporting an 18-7 record on home ice and the noted defensive form.
The Blueshirts are turning to No. 2 Jonathan Quick on Thursday, and he’s won three of his past four starts with a .944 SV% and 1.50 GAA. He’s improved to 12-4-2, .919 and 2.27 marks for the season with the heater, and the veteran might just be pushing for more starts down the stretch.
Finally, Montreal starter Sam Montembeault has also been sneaky solid of late with a .915 SV% across his past eight starts. More impressive, the stretch includes allowing eight goals to the Boston Bruins on January 20. Remove that stinker, and Montembeault has allowed three goals or fewer with a .935 SV% across the other seven outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Welcome to Sports Interaction 2.0
Looking to bet on some NHL action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors, with a brand-new platform featuring same-game parlays, increased prop markets, and more!
Canadiens vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I’m not surprised to see movement to the Montreal moneyline at Sports Interaction because of the noted, no-hum underlying 5-on-5 numbers New York sports.
Still, the difference in the implied probability of the Rangers moving from -275 at opening to -250 is only 1.9%, so this is hardly a meaningful adjustment. Additionally, with both starting goalies confirmed, I don’t expect any notable line movement leading into puck drop.
There has also been movement to the total, and while SIA hasn’t moved off the opening 6.0 number, the higher vig has moved from the Under to the Over since opening. It’s also worth noting there is an outlier 6.5 total available through FanDuel, and the Under is saddled with the higher vig.
Canadiens vs Rangers betting trend to know
New York is 5-0 in its past five games, and the Under has hit four of the past six contests at Madison Square Garden. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Rangers.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Canadiens vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, February 15, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN2, MSG |
Canadiens vs Rangers latest injuries
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
