Coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Buffalo Sabres as -425 favorites, the Toronto Maple Leafs will look to rebound tonight at home versus the Vancouver Canucks, who took two points from the Buds just last month.
Can Jack Campbell provide any support for his team between the pipes? Can Thatcher Demko stand on his head again and steal a win at +180? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Canucks vs. Maple Leafs.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Leafs opened as -245 favorites but have since moved to -220 with a total of 6.5. The previous meeting in Vancouver saw Toronto close as a -200 road favorite with a total of 6.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop, and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs predictions
Predictions made on 3/5/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Canucks vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, CBC
Canucks vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Canucks: Jason Dickinson F (Questionable).
Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin F (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2021
Canucks: 5-5 SU, 26 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 5-5 SU, 34 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Canucks’ last five road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Maple Leafs.
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Leafs have been predictably unpredictable of late, as this is a team that is pressing for points. The goaltending is a legit concern, the blue line lacks familiarity, while the offense is coming off a lackluster performance versus the Sabres — a showing so uninspired, that GM Kyle Dubas aired the team out post-game.
Kyle Dubas on Wednesday’s loss to Buffalo:
— Joshua Clipperton (@JClipperton_CP) March 4, 2022
“I was most disappointed in the fact that in the third period, we didn’t make any type of push.”#Leafs
One thing we know about the Leafs is that these types of performances don’t necessitate positive changes in the following game. Looking back over the team’s last 10 games, urgency has done very little for this team.
Toronto is 3-4 SU in its last seven games, and outside of the 3-1 win versus a suddenly struggling Minnesota team. The Leafs have not played a solid 60 minutes and we’re starting to see the oddsmakers adjust their views on this team.
Over the last seven games, the Leafs have been favorites of -200 or more five times and lost four of those games. In the last two months on home ice, the Leafs have closed as -285 favorites over Edmonton, -265 vs. Anaheim, -359 vs. New Jersey, -210 vs. St. Louis, and -425 vs. Buffalo. Vancouver is pushing for a playoff spot, but tonight’s -220 ML seems short compared to the recent home games at Scotiabank Arena.
So why the price break on the Buds? Well, for starters, Jack Campbell has been a shell of his former self, as the American goalie has managed to pick up a few wins with an 8-5 SU mark over his last 15 games, but with a 3.56 GAA over that stretch, it hasn’t been necessarily pretty. The Leafs need to get him going and are willing to give him as many chances as possible because they need him to return to the early-season form that saw him in contention for the Vezina. Campbell has allowed four or more goals in four of his last six starts, but also two or fewer in three of his last six. He was not in net for the Canucks' 3-2 win in Vancouver.
Looking back at the meeting last month, the Leafs dominated the game offensively and fired 53 shots on net, but Vancouver goalie Thatcher Demko was the difference. The young goaltender has helped his club go 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and push for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Since his outing vs. the Leafs, Demko is 5-1 SU but has played just two teams with a winning record. He will likely see face some new lines tonight as Sheldon Keefe tries to mix things up for the Leafs.
Nick Robertson skated on the second line with John Tavares and William Nylander Friday at practice. Robertson has a high ceiling offensively, and whether this is a showcase move or not, his addition should add a spark to a second line that hasn’t existed for the most part of the last six weeks.
New-look Leafs lines and D:
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) March 4, 2022
Bunting — Matthews — Marner
Robertson — Tavares — Nylander
Mikheyev — Kampf — Engvall/Kase
Kerfoot — Spezza — Simmonds
Rielly — Liljegren
Brodie — Holl
Dermott — Lyubushkin
*Rasmus Sandin is not practising
This is the last game of a four-game road trip for the Canucks. They’ve given up 12 goals through the first three games and would still be happy heading home with four points. Demko can definitely steal this game, but if the Leafs put in another heavy-shot performance as they did in Vancouver, Demko and his 2.89 GAA on the road won’t be skating away with a victory.
On top of that, this is still a short line for the Leafs. If New Jersey was -359 and Anaheim -265, tonight’s line should be closer to -265 than -220. Better than most, we understand getting sucked into a Leafs’ bounce-back spot, but this price is making things easier for us.
Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (-130)
Over/Under analysis
Keen eyes might be quick to grab the Under 6.5 here, as the last meeting closed at 6, and hit the Under with a 3-2 final. However, that game did not have Campbell in net and Demko was unreal, making 50 saves. Things could be very different tonight.
The Leafs are coming off a snoozer of an offensive performance, and although we aren’t assuming they will play better tonight just because of the previous outing, this offense did manage 52 shots in the last meeting vs. Vancouver. The Canucks have also been a little generous on their current road trip and have surrendered 10 total goals over their last two games, with nine of them coming at even strength.
Demko was the only reason the game stayed Under in the last meeting but he’s a different goalie on the road. At home, 26-year-old goaltender has a sparkling 2.21 GAA and a .932 SV%, but those numbers fall to 2.89 GAA and .907 SV% on the road. The Leafs’ offense hasn’t been the main problem for this team, as Keefe’s club is still scoring 4.08 goals per game since Christmas, which is the second-best mark in hockey.
The real reason the last meeting had a total of 6 and tonight’s match is set at 6.5 in Campbell. The Leafs’ backstop has gone 11-1 to the Over across his last 12 starts and owns a 3.81 GAA with a .873 SV% across that stretch. He's going through some mental struggles in net and we hope he figures it out, but in the meantime, the Over has been too successful with him in net not to keep hitting it.
The Leafs have also been weak on the backend as the team is putting some young defensemen into big roles and it hasn’t gone swimmingly to date. The loss of Jake Muzzin has really hurt this team defensively, and the newly formed defense pairings have not produced great results which is a reason that Kyle Dubas will likely make a move for a defenseman at the deadline.
The Canucks have been sneakily hot with the offense of late as well. Bruce Boudreau’s team is scoring over 4.00 goals per game since February 1 and averages more goals per game than the Leafs over that same time. The power play has nine goals over its last 10 games, and this team managed to chase Jacob Markstrom and beat the Rangers in recent consecutive games. This is not an offense to sleep on — it finished with over 3.00 expected goals in the last meeting.
The Leafs won’t be looking to lock things down defensively and we aren’t sure Campbell will even allow that. Both offenses are averaging 4.00 goals per game over the last 30 days and are the reasons why this total is half-a-goal more than the last meeting.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-110)
Best bet
People might be sleeping on this Vancouver offense. It’s scored at least three goals in nine of its last 10 games and has hit the four-goal mark in six of its last seven. J.T. Miller is riding an eight-game point streak with 15 total points, Quinn Hughes continues to chip in on the blue line with four multi-point games over his last eight, and the power play has six goals over its last six contests. If the Leafs struggled to hold down the Sabres’ offense, tonight will pose a bigger challenge.
We still like the Leafs to come out on top, but both teams should find the back of the night tonight as Demko struggles on the road, and Campbell, well, he is just struggling.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-110)
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