The New Jersey Devils enter tonight's road match vs. the St. Louis Blues having taken seven of a possible eight points following the All-Star break and could have Jack Hughes back, who has missed three straight.
New Jersey sits as a -150 road favorite but things will certainly shorten up if the young forward dresses, and with the Blues having scored six goals in back-to-back games following the break, I’m expecting the Over to build some confidence as well.
Find out my best bets and NHL picks for Panthers vs. Capitals on Thursday, February 16.
Devils vs Blues best odds
Devils vs Blues picks and predictions
In the two games without Vlad Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn has totaled four points with two goals and one coming on the power play. He's playing on the wing of one of the most talented lines in hockey with Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas and soaking up the extra minutes and a bigger role.
Looking at the game script, the Blues won’t be coasting to another 6-2 victory today and will lean heavily on the top line to match the offensive production of the Devils — with or without Jack Hughes.
Jordan Binnington ranks between John Gibson and Marc-Andre Fleury in goals saved above expected, which is not a great place to be if you’ve been following those netminders. This St. Louis offense should see some negative game script that will have them chasing points tonight in a game where I love the Over 6.5.
Vitek Vanecek has been almost perfect in 2023 at 10-0-1, but he has held his opponents to one or fewer goals just twice over that stretch. The Blues scored five vs. the Devils in the last meeting in early January and have recorded back-to-back six-goal games since returning from the All-Star break.
The Devils might have the best point percentage since Christmas, but they rank 19th on the penalty kill, sit ninth in GAA at 2.74, and have a negative shot differential over that stretch. It hasn't been a perfect run by any means.
Schenn’s ice time is up more than a minute over the last 45 days to 19:15 per game, and with a spot on the top line and PP1 in a game in which I’m projecting plenty of scoring is a solid spot for a -133 point price. With the uncertainty of Hughes and how that will affect the Devil’s lines, this is the next best angle.
Schenn has at least one point in six of his last eight and in 32 of his 53 games for a 60% hit rate. The Over 6.5 at -110 is also something I like tonight.
My best bet: Brayden Schenn Over 0.5 points (-134)
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Devils vs Blues moneyline analysis
The books have certainly adjusted their pricing on the Blues, who closed as +125 home favorites Tuesday vs. Florida in a 6-2 win. It was their second six-goal performance following the ASB and despite shipping off Vlad Tarasenko, they still have enough talent up front to win a track meet.
But with the Devils on deck tonight as -150 road favorites, which could turn into -175 if Jack Hughes suits up, it’s going to be the fifth time in the Blues’ last eight home games they’ve been the underdog.
As per Greg Wyshynski, Hughes has a 50/50 chance of playing tonight. The young forward practice yesterday in a non-contact jersey yesterday and with the divisional Penguins coming up on Saturday, there’s a chance this is more 40/60 as I’m sure the Devils will want to be cautious with the star. However, points are needed as Jersey currently sits just three points out of the top spot in the Metro Division.
Hearing it's 50/50 that Jack Hughes returns to the lineup for the @NJDevils tomorrow night against the @StLouisBlues. (9 pm ET, ESPN)
— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) February 16, 2023
He skated in a non-contact jersey today. He wants back in. Team's being cautious. NJD are in PIT (Sat.) and home to Jets (Sun.) this weekend.
Following a 3-11 SU stretch in December, the Devils have gotten back on track and are 11-1-2 SU since with the league’s best point percentage and a plus-1.00 goal differential per game. Ten of those 11 wins have come in regulation and five of them have come at -130 or longer.
New Jersey has had no issues winning projected close games and has a .654 winning percentage at -130 or longer on the season (17-9 SU).
Even without Hughes in the lineup, the Devils took five of a possible six points, including two wins at -120 or longer. If you see this line -150 getting shorter, the news is likely out on Hughes drawing in.
The Blues did win a 5-3 game in New Jersey on January 5 with the Devils losing as -175 home favorites. That might make tonight’s price seem long on the home side (50 points for the venue change) but the Devils used Akira Schmidt in net. We should see Vanacek tonight.
Vanacek has been nearly perfect in 2023. Over his 11 starts this calendar year, he’s 10-0-1 with a 2.20 GAA and a .926 SV%.
Binnington will likely get the start for the Blues who will be without middle-six forward Brandon Saad (IR) and defenseman Torey Krug (day-to-day). The St. Louis goalie has been extremely inconsistent all year and owns a 3.50 GAA and a .885 SV% over his last 16 games dating back to the Christmas break.
New Jersey is one of the deepest teams and even if Hughes sits, getting the Devils at -150 on the moneyline early might be the better move. If Hughes starts, this could move to -170, if he doesn’t, it could get to -145.
Devils vs Blues Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 6.5 +100 for the Over but has taken some money on the Over and moved to -110. I still think this can close at Over -120 and if Hughes plays, possibly -125.
Vanacek has been great and the New Jersey offense hasn’t been at its best of late, but vs. the Blues, there’s always room for a 3+3=7.
On the season, the Blues have been one of the best Over teams at 32-15-6. They still have enough offense to score six even without Tarasneko and Binnington has allowed three or more in over 55% of his games this year. At home, with the last change, St. Louis is averaging 6.69 total goals and 6.90 total goals per game since January 1.
Both teams own Top-10 power plays in 2023 which also favors the Over.
The loss of Krug is big for the Blues’ backend which has already allowed the seventh-most goals at even strength. Saad is a solid middle-forward but he will be replaced by exciting rookie Jake Neighbors who has an elite offensive upside but is a minus-16 through 227 games this season.
This is my favorite Over on the board today and the Blues are just a great team to target down the stretch for high-scoring games. Hughes suiting up would make this an even better play as he had two goals in the Blues’ 5-3 win back in early January.
Devils vs Blues betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in the Blues’ last five home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Devils vs Blues.
Devils vs Blues game info
| Location: | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, February 16, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
