The Toronto Maple Leafs offense is rolling again and will look to stay hot against the plummeting New Jersey Devils tonight at Scotiabank Arena.
This game is the front end of a home-and-home set, which will be Toronto's only action this week heading into the All-Star break. The Leafs are monstrous NHL betting home favorites for the first leg of this back-to-back, sitting at lower than -300 tonight against a Devils side that is 3-8 in January.
Here are our best free NHL betting picks and predictions for Devils vs. Maple Leafs on Monday, January 31.
Devils vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This spread opened with Toronto -310/New Jersey +260 and has only grown, with the Leafs now sitting as low as -360 and the Devils as high as +285. The total opened at 6.5, with sportsbooks either moving to a flat 6 (shaded to the Over) or staying at 6.5 and heavily juiced to the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Devils vs Maple Leafs predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-120)
- Prediction: Over 6.5 (+120)
- Best bet: Maple Leafs O3.5 goals in regulation (-140)
Predictions made on 1/31/2022 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Devils vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Monday, January 31, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, MSG
Devils vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Devils: Dougie Hamilton D (Out), Mackenzie Blackwood G (Out), Jonathan Bernier G (Out).
Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Day-to-Day).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Devils vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (2018-20)
Devils: Text. 0-4-1, 13 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 5-0-0, 29 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1-1 in the Maple Leafs' last seven home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Devils vs. Maple Leafs.
Devils vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
After a six-game malaise, which saw the team alternate wins and losses — and blow a handful of multi-goal leads — in the middle of the month, Toronto heads into this Devilish back-to-back a winner of three straight and four of its last five.
Offense hasn't been the issue as the Leafs have scored 3+ goals in 19 of their last 20 games. The 5-on-5 play has been strong during this 2+ month stretch, sitting ninth in Corsi For per 60 minutes, second in scoring chances for per 60, third in goals for per 60, and fifth in expected goals per 60 (per Natural Stat Trick).
The power play has been even scarier, converting at a league-best 36.7% rate, generating the most high-danger chances per 60 minutes of man-advantage time, and logging at least one goal in 13 of its last 16 contests.
What's been plaguing Toronto lately has been some leaky defense and a drop in play from the goaltenders (more on that later), but that shouldn't be a major issue tonight against a New Jersey team that has been downright dreadful since the calendar flipped to the new year.
The Devils have lost four straight games and eight of 10, with the two wins coming against Columbus (12 points out of a playoff spot) and a Carolina team that was starting a fourth-string goaltender.
Despite having a positive 5-on-5 CF% (meaning they generate more shot attempts than their opponent), the seventh-best 5-on-5 xGF/60, and the seventh-most efficient power play during this ugly stretch, the Devils are just 23rd in goals per game as they have reached three goals just once in its last seven contests (the Carolina victory).
This can be attributed to a poor team shooting percentage (5.56%, 30th in league), the 24th-worst shooting percentage on high-danger chances (14.06%), and the fourth-fewest power-play opportunities.
The Devils are also expected to start fourth-string goaltender Akira Schmid tonight. The 21-year-old Schmid was pulled after giving up three goals on seven shots in his last outing and has a 4.99 goals-against average and .824 save percentage in four appearances (three starts) this season.
While Campbell isn't playing at the Vezina-caliber pace of earlier in the year, he is still leaps and bounds above Schmid, while the Toronto offense is a massive upgrade against the roster the Devils are sending out. The Leafs have also won seven of their last eight games on home ice, winning by an average margin of 2.4 goals, while New Jersey has dropped five straight on the road and has just five road wins all season.
There's absolutely zero value on the Toronto moneyline and the regulation moneyline, and we just can't back the Devils in any form, so we'll begrudgingly lean with the Toronto -1.5 that gives us at least a semblance of profitability.
Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-120)
Over/Under analysis
After posting a dynamite October and November, in which he led the NHL with a 1.64 goals-against average and .946 save percentage, Toronto goalie Jack Campbell saw his numbers dip in December... and really plummet in January.
Campbell has a 3.22 GAA and .889 SV% in seven starts this month, with those numbers buoyed by a 23-save shutout on New Year's Day. He's allowed 3+ goals in five straight outings (three of which he was tagged for five goals), has an .850 SV% or worse in three straight games, a .606 high-danger save percentage (78th out of 82 goalies), and an NHL-worst -8.15 goals saved above average during that stretch.
Despite New Jersey's lack of offensive output, as mentioned above it has one of the better xGF/60 at 5-on-5 recently, and with Campbell struggling to make saves right now (let alone difficult ones), they should be able to scratch a couple of goals tonight.
As for the Leafs, well it certainly feels like the Devils are feeding Schmid to the wolves tonight, so we could see another crooked number get hung up.
While there are some flat 6.0s available, we're going to go with the better price from backing an Over 6.5 total instead.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (+120)
Best bet
Not only are the Leafs scoring plenty of goals, but they're also dominating puck possession, offensive shot generation, and head coach Sheldon Keefe appears to have gone back to having his two dynamic duos (Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner and John Tavares/William Nylander) reunited back in the Top 6.
Regardless of what Keefe chooses, Toronto has been clicking offensively — and getting to face a goalie tonight in Schmid, who appears to be severely overmatched in his first NHL cup of coffee, should not slow the goal-scoring train down.
The Devils are also allowing the 12th-most scoring chances against per 60 at 5-on-5 during their 10-game freefall, and with their goalie unlikely to bail them out against Toronto's elite snipers — and us not expecting the Devils to keep pace — we're all-in on Toronto going Over its 60-minute team total.
Pick: Maple Leafs 60-minute team total Over 3.5 (-140)
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