The Calgary Flames come into tonight’s match vs. the Toronto Maple Leafs on the heels of a 3-1 loss in Columbus last night and now have to face the best team in hockey over the last 30 days.
The Leafs haven’t allowed a goal in back-to-back games but oddsmakers have still priced the home side a little long for the second straight game. This should be a game that the Leafs can win at 5-on-5 and that’s great news for a winger riding a point streak, but I'm not talking about Mitch Marner.
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Flames vs. Maple Leafs on Saturday, December 10.
Flames vs Leafs best odds
Flames vs Leafs picks and predictions
Mitch Marner is still riding a 21-game point streak but the prop value tonight is with Michael Bunting, who is riding a seven-game point streak of his own and playing with some elite company.
Bunting is currently playing with Auston Matthews and William Nylander and ever since Sheldon Keefe shuffled his top-six, Bunting has caught fire with nine assists in his last seven games.
Bunting is doing the dirty work for the top line and is winning more puck battles than he’s losing. He’s got his confidence back after a slow start and has even recorded at least three shots on net in back-to-back games.
He won’t get much power-play time, but with the Leafs scoring just six of their 36 goals over the last 10 games on the power play, the 5-on-5 play will likely generate the offense again tonight.
Facing a Calgary team that played the Johnny Gaudreau game in Columbus last night and likely getting in late with the border crossing, this is an awful schedule spot for the Flames which works in Bunting’s favor — especially at -125.
My best bet: Michael Bunting Over 0.5 points (-125 at SIA)
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Flames vs Leafs moneyline analysis
At -165, this is a great price for the Leafs who are playing their best hockey in possibly a decade and face a team who just played across the border last night.
The Flames took the loss last night in Columbus in a game they likely had circled on the calendar as it was the first meeting with Johnny Gaudreau since he signed with the Blue Jackets. Now the 14-14 SU Flames and their zero goal differential have to face a team that has the best point percentage in hockey over the last 30 days and hasn’t lost in regulation in 13 straight games.
Toronto has a league-best 1.85 GAA over this incredible stretch and considering the Leafs have started three different goalies, it shows how well the team has committed to the defensive game, which was needed thanks to massive injuries to the blue line.
Now, TJ Brodie is back for the Leafs. which is a big boost, while the suspension of Pierre Engvall isn’t even worth five points in the handicap on the ML.
Calgary is 1-5 SU in its last six games as an underdog. Projected starting goalie Dan Vladar has been decent of late, with a 4-1-1 record over his last six games but all those victories came as a -145 favorite or shorter. The Flames are a Bottom-10 team in terms of goal production and that could sting them tonight vs. a team that's playing incredible defensive hockey.
This moneyline opened at TOR -155 and is starting to gain some steam with some books at -175 already. Considering the form of the Leafs and the unfavorable schedule spot for the Flames vs. a non-conference team, this line should be closer to -200 tonight, in my opinion. The books were 30 to 35 points short in the Leafs’ last game vs. the Kings — a game in which the Leafs dominated and won 4-0.
Flames vs Leafs Over/Under analysis
Tonight's game marks the first time the Leafs have opened at 6 in over 10 games. In two of their last three contests, their total has opened at 6.5, only to close at 6. It’s likely the correct adjustment from the oddsmakers, as the Leafs are 8-19-1 O/U on the season making them one of the most profitable Under teams in hockey.
Through 28 games, the Leafs have not played a game that has seen more than seven goals. That stat is incredible to me and shows the consistency that this team has in playing committed defensive hockey.
The Leafs haven’t confirmed a goaltender as of this morning, but it really doesn’t matter with the recent play of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov. Both goalies are coming off shutouts, as the Leafs haven’t allowed a goal in 120 minutes. The duo has a combined save percentage of .932 and they rank second and third in the league in the category. Looking at goalies with at least nine starts, Murray and Samsonov sit first and third, respectively, in goals saved above expected/60 (GSAx/60).
With the Leafs’ power play gone dormant and the Flames scoring with the man advantage at a Bottom-8 rate on the season, special-team goals could be hard to come by, as well.
With the total falling to 6, it’s tough for me to bet this Under, but with the play of each goalie and the Leafs’ defensive dominance, my lean is certainly there.
Flames vs Leafs betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs. Western Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs Leafs.
Flames vs Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, December 10, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Flames vs Leafs key injuries
