The Calgary Flames welcome the Tampa Bay Lightning to the Scotiabank Saddledome tonight, and the Flames are set to improve their sterling 10-3-1 home-ice record.
Calgary has been a defensive juggernaut at home, and my Lightning vs. Flames predictions anticipate Tampa Bay struggling again on the road.
Read more in my NHL picks for Thursday, December 12.
Flames vs Lightning prediction
My Flames pick
Under 6.5 (-120 at BET99)
My Flames analysis
Home ice has been kind to the Calgary Flames, and the highway has been just the opposite for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Calgary has allowed the second-fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five (1.33) and fourth-fewest per game (2.21) at home, while Tampa’s 5-on-5 metrics plummet on the road.
This will also be the third stop of a four-game road trip for the Lightning, and top-six center Anthony Cirelli (upper body) and top-four defenseman Erik Cernak (lower body) are both nursing injuries and didn’t play Tuesday against Edmonton.
Additionally, Calgary has trended to the Under all season (12-17), and the total has gone Under the number in seven of the past nine Flames home games.
Goaltending has been the story at the Scotiabank Saddledome, with Dan Vladar and Dustin Wolf combining for a league-high .956 SV% at 5-on-5. While that efficiency is unsustainable long term, this is a one-game spot against a top-heavy offense that struggles to score on the road without the benefit of the last-change advantage.
I also value the Flames' holding opponents to the eighth-fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 on home ice and Calgary's thriving in defensive-minded games. It’s the recipe for success for head coach Ryan Huska.
Flames vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Flames moneyline
Under 6.5
Connor Zary Over 1.5 shots
The Lightning's highlighted shortcomings on the road make Calgary a solid bet as a home underdog on Thursday. Tampa Bay loses the possession (48.9 CF%) and expected-goals battle (47.3%) on the road, while Calgary is 10-3-1 on home ice.
This is also a tough schedule spot for Tampa Bay, and if Cirelli and Cernak are out or playing at less than 100%, it’s a big blow to an already shallow lineup.
Turning to Connor Zary, he’s recorded two or more shots in six of the past eight games and 19 of 29 for the season. The third-line center also benefits from being placed further down the depth chart, as Top-6 forwards Nazem Kardi and Mikael Backlund will take on the toughest on-ice matchups.
Zary also sports a rock-solid 53.4 CF% at 5-on-5 and elite 9.7 relative CF%, so I expect him to continue tilting the ice in his favor.
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Flames vs Lightning odds
Flames vs Lightning live odds
Flames vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Calgary +1.5 | Tampa Bay -1.5
- Moneyline: Calgary +125 | Tampa Bay -150
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Odds courtesy of BET99
Flames vs Lightning trend
Calgary has played to the Under in seven of its past nine home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Lightning.
How to watch Flames vs Lightning
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-12-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet One |
Flames vs Lightning latest injuries
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