The Toronto Maple Leafs and Philadelphia Flyers will treat NHL bettors to a matinee game today as the heavily-favored Buds (-320) will look to head into the holiday break on a two-game winning streak, while the Flyers still have to play in Carolina before they can take their holiday break.
William Nylander and Auston Matthews have been electric together on the top line, but it's the former that is showing the best value in the NHL prop market this afternoon.
Find out more in my free NHL picks and predictions for Flyers vs. Maple Leafs below.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs best odds
Flyers vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Auston Matthews has gone 6-0 to the Over on his shot total in the last six games and enters today’s matinee with a total of 4.5. He’s seen a closing total of 3.5 four times over the winning stretch so bettors are paying a premium today at 4.5.
William Nylander has just three fewer shots on goal than Matthews over the last 10 games and has a SOG market that sits at 3.5 at the same price as Matthews and is showing more value on the Over.
Nylander is 8-1 O/U on his shot total over his last nine games and is coming off an eight-shot game Tuesday vs. Tampa Bay and a five-shot game before that.
He leads the team in goals with 19 over 33 games and has the same value for his SOG market as Matthews when looking at season-long numbers. Matthews is averaging 4.5 SOG per game with a median of 4.0 while Nylander is averaging 3.5 SOG with a median of 3.0.
However, Nylander has been more productive since he’s moved to the top line with Michael Bunting and Matthews and that might not be priced accurately in his markets.
He joined the top line on November 15 and since then is averaging 3.9 shots on goal with a median of 4.0 while Matthews’ numbers have remained the same.
The matchup is also in Nylander’s favor tonight as the Flyers sit in the bottom half of the league in shots allowed per game and have allowed 115 shots over the last three games. Additionally, with the break coming soon, Sheldon Keefe might not have to rest his top players if Toronto builds an early lead.
My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (-115 at Sports Interaction)
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Flyers vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs snapped their first two-game losing streak in regulation with a dominant 4-1 win over the Lightning on Tuesday. Toronto outshot the Bolts 29-8 in the first two periods and even held the fort when Tampa made it 2-1.
Sheldon Keefe deserves a ton of credit because this Toronto team can seemingly fall back into this defensive team system that just throttles opponents’ scoring chances. The bench boss might have to use the same strategy this afternoon as the blue line took yet another hit following the Tuesday victory.
Rasmus Sandin, who had taken over the Morgan Rielly role, will be out tonight with a neck injury. That means the Leafs are down three starting defensemen but this team has proven it can adapt to injuries on the blue line with a team-driven shut-down defense.
They will also get a boost with Jordie Benn drawing back in. He’s been out since late November so his addition will help in the team’s final game before the break vs. an easy opponent in a bad schedule spot.
The Flyers are 3-7 SU in the last 10 but have four points over their last three games including a win over the Devils as +250 road dogs. Now, they enter an afternoon game as +260 dogs with a game in Carolina tomorrow before the Christmas break.
Philly was in Toronto yesterday and considering many players have family in the area, there’s a good chance that the Flyers used yesterday to see family. Tampa did that earlier this week and came out very flat in Tuesday’s game. This is obviously some subjective handicapping, but it was certainly something Lightning coach Jon Cooper was aware of in his post-game comments following his team’s 4-1 loss.
The Leafs have already beaten the Flyers convincingly this season with a 5-2 home win back in November as a -325 favorite. That puts today’s moneyline right in line with the previous meeting.
In net, Ilya Samsonov has the edge over Carter Hart (unconfirmed) while the Leafs’ special teams are infinitely better than the Flyers’, who have one of the worst power plays in hockey and a Bottom-10 penalty kill.
Auston Matthews and William Nylander are heating up and if the Leafs play another defensive gem, it will be tough for the Flyers to keep Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Nylander off the score sheet. The schedule is also very favorable to the Leafs, who I’d take on the puck line in a game that I could see finishing 3-1 or 4-1.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
With the Leafs losing another defenseman in Rasmus Sandin, bettors might think to hit the Over today, but Keefe has proven to tighten things up when the blue line is missing bodies.
Toronto has dealt with a plethora of injuries to key defensemen this season but this team has been getting great 200-foot play from the forwards for a team that allows very few quality chances and shots on net.
The Leafs sit fifth in shots allowed per game and have the second-best GAA on hockey — only worse than the Bruins. On the other side, the Flyers allow the third-most high-danger shots on net, are 28th in expected goals against, and have the fifth-worst goal differential. This game is screaming one-way scoring and that's why we’re seeing a total of 6 when the last meeting closed at 6.5.
We’re also dealing with the unfamiliar mid-week afternoon game which will also be throwing these athletes off their routines.
If the Leafs want to carry over their play from Tuesday, it could be a tough spot for the Flyers to get two goals as their team total of 2.5 is priced at -175 to the Under.
The Leafs are one of the best Under teams in hockey (11-21-2 O/U) and I’m leaning on the Under 6 here as the schedule and game time are working against the Flyers, who I doubt will be much help in this Over.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last six games vs. the Metropolitan. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs Maple Leafs.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, December 22, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, SNO |
Flyers vs Maple Leafs key injuries
