After taking care of the Maple Leafs 3-1 last night at home, the Vegas Golden Knights travel to San Jose to take on the Sharks, who have four points over their last three games. Despite the back-to-back, NHL odds have the Knights listed as heavy -180 favorites with a total of 6.5 leaning to the Under.
Even with a capable starter in Adin Hill likely getting the nod for Vegas, this could be a much closer game than the odds are indicating.
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Sharks.
Golden Knights vs Sharks best odds
Golden Knights vs Sharks picks and predictions
With a low-scoring game I’m projecting, it might be safer for bettors to look at the shots-on-goal market for tonight’s nightcap.
San Jose’s Timo Meier is one of the best shot-volume players in the league. His 3.5 shot total might scare some away but this is a total he’s cleared in five of his eight games and fell one shot short in two others. He’s averaging 4.25 shots on net and plays a team that just played a tough defensive game vs. the Maple Leafs last night and is traveling.
Meier is averaging a healthy 8.25 shot attempts per game and is also missing the net at a higher rate than last season so we could see even more pucks hit the net as that number evens out closer to his averages. Only Auston Matthews and Alex Ovechkin had more shot attempts last season than the San Jose winger while he is currently tied for second this season.
This is one of the heaviest shot-volume players in hockey but isn't priced at 4.5 like Matthews or other elite shooters.
My best bet: Timo Meier Over 3.5 shots on goal (-113 at Caesars)
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Golden Knights vs Sharks moneyline analysis
The Sharks are valued as one of the worst teams in hockey, but they have rewarded backers lately with a win as +112 home dogs to the Flyers in their latest game and another +242 OT win over the Rangers three games ago. Add in a one-goal loss to the Devils as +175 road dogs sandwiched between the wins, and this very undervalued team has been playing competitive hockey over its last three games.
The problem with tonight is the books absolutely love the Knights this year and that can be proven in tonight’s -180 moneyline price on the back end of a traveling back-to-back. With a -180 price tag, the books are saying that Vegas would be a -230ish road favorite with a normal schedule. That seems excessive and with the traveling back-to-back to a waiting San Jose team, it’s hard not to look at the home side at +160.
The Sharks are struggling to score with the lowest goals per game at 1.88 but they are allowing just 2.88 (11th) and 30.6 shots per game (10th). If they can keep this close vs. a Vegas team that scored three goals yesterday thanks to some generous Toronto giveaways, bettors might get some value out of +160. The Knights have scored three or fewer goals in four of their seven games this season.
Adin Hill is 2-0 as a starter for the Knights but has also received five goals of support in each start. Hill spent his last season with the Sharks, which puts the advantage with the San Jose shooters in my opinion. Hill finished last year with a goals saved above expected/60 below that of San Jose starter James Reimer.
Reimer is 2-3-0 with a 2.21 GAA and a .933 save percentage this season and has posted a save percentage above .900 in each of his five starts. He’s stopped 51 of the last 53 shots he’s seen over his last two games, which includes a shutout win over Philly his last time out.
Looking at special teams, the Sharks might also have the edge. Neither power play is finding much success early in the season with both clubs sitting in the Bottom 14 in PP% but the Sharks penalty kill has been elite at 96% while the Knights sit 28th at 72.2%.
In what I’m expecting to be a close-scoring game coupled with the travel schedule for the Knights, there is certainly some value on the Sharks tonight at +160.
Golden Knights vs Sharks Over/Under analysis
Through the early parts of the season, these two teams are a combined 4-10 O/U and seeing a combined average of 4.95 goals per game. The Sharks are scoring under 2.00 goals per game while the Knights are allowing exactly 2.00 goals out of the gates.
This total is leaning heavily to the Under 6.5 but should ultimately close at 6. Vegas is traveling and played yesterday, which could increase the chance of the offense laying a dud, while the Sharks are familiar with playing competitive low-scoring games of late.
The goalie matchup might look like an auto-Over bet but Hill and Reimer have been very good this season, especially Reimer, who sits ninth in the league in goals saved above expected/60, per MoneyPuck.
Special teams are always one of the biggest factors when hitting totals and with how each team is scoring with the man advantage, the Under is the play here. Through their 15 combined game, these clubs are 7-for-51 or 13.7%, which would rank 27th in the league.
The San Jose penalty kill has also been its best asset having killed 24 of its 25 penalties to open the season.
With traveled legs and a low-scoring San Jose team waiting, I don’t see this game getting out of hand, and love the Under 6.5 at -125 or better.
Golden Knights vs Sharks betting trend to know
The Golden Knights are 1-6 SU in their last seven games playing on zero days rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs Sharks.
Golden Knights vs Sharks game info
| Location: | SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 25, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
