The Western Conference Final moves to Texas where the Dallas Stars face a two-games-to-none deficit ahead of their Game 3 match with the Vegas Golden Knights. NHL odds have the home side as -145 favorites with a total of 5.5.
In what is likely a must-win game for Dallas on home ice where Jake Oettinger has been more consistent, bettors should be expecting another tight game with no margin for error on both sides — which favors the Under Tuesday night.
Find out my favorite NHL picks for tonight's Golden Knights vs. Stars Game 4 matchup.
Golden Knights vs Stars Game 3 odds
Golden Knights vs Stars Game 3 predictions
The Dallas Stars are 9-5-1 to the Over so far in the postseason despite having the best expected goals against/60 of all 16 playoff teams at 2.55 (all strengths). The main reason for the Overs cashing frequently has been because of the play of Jake Oettinger in net, but the goalie has performed much better at home — giving even more value to tonight’s Under 5.5.
The Dallas netminder owns a 2.07 GAA and a .929 SV% through seven playoff games on home ice. His 0.78 GSAx/60 at home ranks as the third-best mark in the playoffs behind Freddy Andersen and Akira Schmidt, per Natural Stat Trick.
Both teams play very disciplined games and take few penalties. Each team is also backed by a great coach who has his team playing their defensive systems efficiently, which is why the Vegas Golden Knights can roll out multiple goalies and have the same success.
It’s not a knock on Adin Hill, who has a .930 save percentage in the postseason, but Vegas has played with different goalies all season, and Bruce Cassidy’s game plans and systems have this as one of the best defensive teams in hockey.
Dallas has possibly been even better when looking at underlying metrics. This was the No. 5 team in hockey in expected goals against/60 (all strength) during the regular season and is the No. 1 team in that category in the playoffs. The Knights might also be considered slightly lucky with how they’ve managed their high-danger chances, as they have a 33% shooting percentage on their best chances which is well off their regular-season mark of 18.53%.
The Under closed at -115 in Game 1 and then, after a 4-3 Vegas overtime win, Game 2 closed at -110... which is where we stand for Game 3. The Under 5.5 tonight is the side that I'm most confident about.
My best bet: Under 5.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Golden Knights vs Stars Game 3 same-game parlay
Under 5.5
Esa Lindell Over 1.5 blocked shots
Shea Theodore Over 1.5 shots on goal
The Golden Knights are having 25% of their shot attempts blocked in this series and with Dallas' urgency down 2-0, some more self sacrificing is in store tonight. Esa Lindell sits second on the team in the playoffs and during the regular season in shot blocks/60. Vegas is throwing a lot of low-danger shots on net and the Stars getting bodies in front of it.
Shea Theodore's Over 1.5 shots is showing solid win probability. Dallas is allowing Vegas to throw those low-danger chances from the point on net, and Theodore ranks fifth on the team in terms of shot attempts/60 in the playoffs. He's hit the Over in both games this series as he's the team's most offensive blueliner and quarterbacks the power play.
It's going to be another tight game and I'm staying away from Overs on bigger numbers as time and space will be at a premium tonight.
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Golden Knights vs Stars Game 3 moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Stars opened Game 3 as -130 home favorites and took some money, currently sitting as -145 favorites on the moneyline. This line indicates Dallas would be the favorite on neutral ice as home ice is worth 20 to 25 points.
These two teams have played nothing but close games over the last three seasons as the tie has hit in seven of the last nine meetings, as well in the 2020 Western Conference Finals where these two teams met — with all but one of the games being decided by a single goal.
As the Knights get longer on the ML, the value is starting to side with them in a game that is very close to 50/50 with a slight edge for the Stars who get the last change. Through two games, the Corsi, Fenwick, and shots on goal are fairly even while Dallas does have a slight 53.49% xG%.
One of the biggest reasons why the Knights have a two-game lead in the series is how well Vegas has buried its best chances. In the series, the Golden Knights have scored six of their seven goals on high-danger chances and are scoring at an unsustainable 33.33% shooting percentage on those chances.
This is a game between two of the best defensive teams in hockey and it should continue to be a tight series. The tie at +300 is certainly in play again tonight and Vegas’ shooting percentage should regress as well. Sharp money hit the Stars early and although I lean on the Knights at +125, I’m more confident in the Under than a side.
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Golden Knights vs Stars betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1-1 in the Golden Knight's last nine Conference Final games. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Stars.
Golden Knights vs Stars Game 3 game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, May 23, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
