There is a Western Conference tilt in Saturday’s NHL matinee on ABC, with the Central Division’s Dallas Stars hosting the Pacific Division’s Vegas Golden Knights. Historically, the Under is extremely profitable when these two clubs meet, with six or fewer total goals scored in 11 of the 13 all-time meetings.
Will the Under strike once again, or can the goal-scoring pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Stars on Saturday, April 8.
Golden Knights vs Stars best odds
Golden Knights vs Stars picks and predictions
The Dallas Stars enter this contest amidst a flurry of low-scoring games, with six or fewer total goals scored in five of their last seven outings. A big reason for this trend is the play of one of the league’s best netminders, Jake Oettinger, who is the confirmed starter on Saturday.
Over his past five starts, Oettinger is 4-1 with a stellar .932 save percentage (SV%) and 1.82 goals against average (GAA). This play is just a continuation of yet another strong campaign from Dallas’ goaltender, who is 34-11-11 with a .917 SV% and 2.45 GAA.
Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely. Among starting goaltenders, Oettinger ranks 13th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
In front of Oettinger is one of the better two-way teams in the Western Conference. Boasting a strong blue line spearheaded by one of the best defenseman in the league in Miro Heiskanen, the Stars rank ninth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
Across the ice, goaltender Laurent Brossoit is projected to start between the pipes for the Vegas Golden Knights. Looking tremendous since returning from injury at the end of February, Brossoit is 5-0-3 with a .921 SV% and 2.44 GAA.
His underlying metrics suggest that these strong numbers over the small nine-game sample size are not a fluke. If he qualified, Brossoit would rank fifth among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.
Similar to Oettinger in Dallas, Brossoit possesses the advantage of a strong blue line in front of him. At 5-on-5, the Golden Knights rank 11th in the league in xGA/60.
With two strong defenses and goaltenders set to square off, look for the Under to cash yet again in this matchup.
My best bet: Under 6.5 (-139 at BetRivers)
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Golden Knights vs Stars moneyline analysis
From a pure value perspective, I would lean towards Vegas on the moneyline at plus-money, but do not feel confidently one-way or the other. These two teams are much more even than their records indicate, which is mostly a product of Dallas’ poor performances in overtime.
At 5-on-5, the Golden Knights rank three spots higher than the Stars in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). However, at 5-on-5, Dallas ranks two spots higher in xGA/60.
In terms of goaltending, the edge goes to Oettinger and the Stars. With that in mind, considering Brossoit’s stellar play since returning to the crease, it could be argued that edge is not as big as it would appear.
Given Dallas boasts home-ice advantage, I made them between –115 and –130 on the moneyline, so I see a bit of value in Vegas at +117, but not enough to pull the trigger.
Golden Knights vs Stars Over/Under analysis
Both of these goaltenders’ strong play should continue in this matchup. Not only do both of these netminders enter this contest with terrific numbers recently, but each of them boasts previous success against Saturday’s opponent.
Through three career starts against the Stars, Brossoit is 2-0-1 with a remarkable .944 SV% and 1.90 GAA. Meanwhile, Oettinger’s splits against the Golden Knights are somehow even better.
Across his three career starts against Vegas, he is 3-0 with an absurd .962 SV% and 1.27 GAA. There were five or fewer total goals scored in all three of those outings.
Golden Knights vs Stars betting trend to know
There have been six or fewer total goals scored in 11 of the 13 all-time meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs Stars.
Golden Knights vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, April 8, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
