There is a Metropolitan Division clash set to take place on Friday night, with the first-place New Jersey Devils hosting the fourth-place New York Islanders. This contest features a battle of strength against strength with one of the world’s best goaltenders tasked with guarding the cage against the league’s best offense.
Will the Devils beat the Islanders for the second time this season, or can New York grab a win as a road underdog? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Islanders vs. Devils on December 9.
Islanders vs Devils best odds
Islanders vs Devils picks and predictions
The Devils continue to steamroll everyone in their path as they sit in first place of the Metropolitan Division with an outstanding 21-4-1 record. While their offense gets the attention it deserves, New Jersey’s defense has been just as dominant.
At 5v5, the Devils rank first in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The Jonas Siegenthaler/Dougie Hamilton pairing has been the best defensive duo in hockey through the first quarter of the season, boasting a 65% xGoals% through 367 minutes played together.
Spearheaded by that elite defensive pairing, the rest of the defense also holds up their side of the bargain, as New Jersey has allowed two or fewer goals in 10 of its last 12 games. Backing up this elite defense is goaltender Vitek Vanecek, who has been terrific since getting shipped over from Washington in the off-season.
Through 17 appearances between the pipes this season, Vanecek is 12-2-1 with a .922 SV% and 2.10 GAA. Based on his metrics, regression should not be too much of an issue moving forward.
Among starting goaltenders, Vanecek ranks 11th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. Entering this contest in great form, he has allowed two or fewer goals in six of his last eight starts.
Over that stretch, Vanecek is 6-1-1 with a .934 SV% and 1.88 GAA. This incredible stretch of goaltending could continue against New York, a team he has dominated throughout his career.
Across eight career starts against the Islanders, Vanecek is 5-2 with a .924 SV% and 2.19 GAA. The Islanders heavily rely on their goaltending to win games as the offense is fairly stagnant, while the defense has not been the same since the departure of former head coach Barry Trotz.
At 5v5, New York ranks just 20th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Going on the road against an elite defense and Vanecek, this offense should struggle to find the back of the net.
My best bet: Islanders team total Under 2.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
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Islanders vs Devils moneyline analysis
On paper, the Devils should have no issue winning this game. However, laying over two dollars in juice on the moneyline or taking the puck line against goaltender Ilya Sorokin is something I want no part of. One of the best goaltenders on the planet, Sorokin is off to yet another great start this season.
Through 19 appearances between the pipes, Sorokin is 10-8 with a .927 SV% and 2.33 GAA. Amongst starters, he ranks second in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
Across eight career starts against New Jersey, Sorokin is 5-3 with a .921 SV% and 2.38 GAA. While the Devils should still take care of business, the juice is too heavy on the moneyline, and taking the spread against Sorokin is far too dangerous.
Islanders vs Devils Over/Under analysis
We shouldn't expect the Islanders to score much this game, but the battle of Sorokin against the Devils’ powerhouse offense is too difficult to wager on. While Sorokin is typically difficult to beat, New York’s poor defensive play this season is not making things easy on him.
At 5v5, the Islanders rank third-to-last in the league in xGA/60. As I mentioned earlier, New York’s efficiency at the blue line has greatly diminished since the departure of their former head coach.
This poor defense could be a massive problem against the buzzsaw that is the Devils' offense. Spearheaded by Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, New Jersey ranks first in the league in xGF/60 at 5v5.
I will not be surprised if the Devils score five times, but I would also not be surprised if we get a “Sorokin game” where the star netminder stands on his head and shuts down the opposition. This conflict makes betting on the total fairly difficult, so I am just fading the Islanders’ offense instead.
Islanders vs Devils betting trend to know
New Jersey has allowed two or fewer goals in 10 of its last 12 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Devils. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Devils.
Islanders vs Devils game info
| Location: | Prudential Center, Newark, NJ |
| Date: | Friday, December 9, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MSG Sportsnet, MSG Sportsnet 2 |
