Islanders vs Penguins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Goals Are Hard to Come By in Pittsburgh

A Metropolitan Division tilt kicks off Tuesday’s NHL slate with the Pittsburgh Penguins hosting the New York Islanders. NHL odds have Pittsburgh as a moderate –144 favorite, while the total sits at 5.5 or six, depending on the book.

These two teams just squared off at the end of December, with the Penguins claiming a 3-1 victory in a low-scoring game.

Will we see another low-scoring affair, or can the goals pick up this time around? Find out in my free NHL picks for Islanders vs. Penguins on Tuesday, February 20.

Islanders vs Penguins odds

Islanders vs Penguins predictions

There have now been five or fewer total goals scored in eight of Pittsburgh’s last 10 games, a trend that is likely to continue Tuesday for multiple reasons. First, the offense has gone completely cold, averaging just 2.2 goals scored per game over that stretch.

The injury to forward Jake Guentzel is only going to exacerbate these scoring woes, considering he is north of a point-per-game player and is going to miss the next four weeks with an upper-body injury. On the season, the Penguins now rank 25th or lower in the league in goals scored per game, power play percentage, and shooting percentage.

On the other hand, this team has done an exceptional job at keeping the puck out of the net as they rank eighth or higher in goals allowed per game, penalty kill percentage, and penalty minutes taken per game.

While the blue line has done a solid job, goaltender Tristan Jarry has played particularly well, and he is expected to start between the pipes for Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

Through 36 appearances in the crease this season, Jarry boasts a .914 SV% and 2.50 GAA. He has now allowed two or fewer goals in four of his past five starts, posting a .920 SV% and 2.21 GAA over that stretch.

There were five or fewer total goals scored in four of those five outings. This success is likely to continue against New York, a team he has dominated throughout his career with an 11-3-1 record, .923 SV%, and 2.28 GAA.

My best bet: Under 5.5 (+108 at FanDuel)

Islanders vs Penguins same-game parlay

Under 5.5

Penguins moneyline

+240 at FanDuel

A big reason for Jarry’s success against the Islanders is that their offense is typically below average, which is once again the case this season. Entering this matchup, they rank 20th in both goals scored per game and shots on goal per game.

Based on their underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely as they also rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. With that said, this game is still likely to be a low-scoring affair as goaltender Ilya Sorokin is slated to start for New York.

Once again carrying this team, Sorokin boasts a .910 SV% and 3.12 GAA through 39 appearances in the crease.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Islanders vs Penguins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Penguins opened as a –154 favorite and have since been bet down to -144. This market behavior shocks me, as there is no reason to like New York in this spot other than hoping we get a goalie game out of Sorokin, which bodes well for the Under anyways.

That brings us to the total, which opened at 5.5 and remains at that number at the time of writing. There are some options out there to take Under 6, but I would rather take Under 5.5 at plus money than lay a bigger number on the former.

Pittsburgh is one of the best Under teams in the league, going 32-17 this season.

Islanders vs Penguins betting trend to know

There have been five or fewer total goals scored in eight of Pittsburgh’s past 10 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Penguins.

Islanders vs Penguins game info

Islanders vs Penguins latest injuries

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