The recent play in net by goalie Jack Campbell has the Toronto Maple Leafs' fanbase forgetting the name of Frederik Andersen. The new No. 1 has been stacking wins for the Buds and leads the league in seemingly every goalie metric heading into the season's third month.
However, the former Leaf has also been flourishing in his new Carolina environment as both tenders are making serious early-season cases for the 2021-22 Vezina trophy.
Is there a world where both the former and current Leaf netminders are two of the three finalists for goalie of the year? Can Campbell be the first Toronto goalie to win the award since 1964-65? Has the Vezina future market fully adjusted to either goaltender’s play a quarter of the way into the season?
We break down the early Vezina battle between Andersen and Campbell and try to shed some light on the possibility of either tender walking away with hardware at the season’s end.
Vezina Trophy Betting Odds
Heading into the third month of the NHL season, the Vezina market has turned into a six-horse race with Connor Hellebuyck and Robin Lehner losing pace. Campbell was as high as +3,400 before the season and spent most of October at +2,000 while Andersen began the 2021-22 season at +1,900 and has already spent some time in the Top 3.
The market seems to be high, however, on the netminder out of Calgary. "Jacob Markstrom is by far our heaviest bet Vezina future," Sports Interaction's Head of Trading, Phill Gray, told Covers. "There isn't a lot of action on Campbell or Andersen but it's about $4 to every $1 for Campbell over Andersen."
Is now the time to get on the current and former Toronto goaltender?
| Player | Team | Odds to win |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | Tampa Bay Lightning | +461 |
| Igor Shesterkin | New York Rangers | +800 |
| Jacob Markstrom | Calgary Flames | +800 |
| Frederik Andersen | Carolina Hurricanes | +874 |
| Jack Campbell | Toronto Maple Leafs | +900 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | Florida Panthers | +1,000 |
| Connor Hellebuyck | Winnipeg Jets | +1,200 |
| Robin Lehner | Vegas Golden Knights | +1,300 |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction as of November 30, 2021.
Jack Campbell Vezina Trophy odds
Jack Campbell is coming off a November where the American-born goalie finished 9-2 SU with a 1.27 goals-against average, a .967 save percentage, and three shutouts — all of which paced the league. He’s the first Leafs’ goalie to post a sub-1.30 GAA in a calendar month since 1952, per Sportsnet Stats. Through 18 games, the Toronto twine protector leads the league in wins (12), GAA (1.64), and SV% (.946) while also playing more than any other goalie. He's the main reason why the Leafs are tied for the most points in the league heading into December.
Although voting GMs are unlikely to dig too deep into advanced goalie metrics, Campbell’s name still litters a handful of top spots in some key advanced statistics. The Toronto tender sits second in WAR, second in puck freezes above expected, and third in high-danger save percentage. Even on a team with Auston Matthews, it’s safe to say that Campbell has been the team’s MVP through 23 games.
Campbell was getting zero love in the Vezina market heading into the season, despite posting a 19-5-3 record in his first 27 starts with the Maple Leafs in previous seasons. Some books had Campbell as high as +3,400 to capture the award before the first game of the season but the betting public is starting to take notice. “We have 10 times the number of Vezina bets on Campbell compared to Andersen and Cambell is our second highest liability after Juuse Saros,” Kris Abbott, National Manager at Coolbet Canada, revealed to Covers.
His Vezina future was still available at +1,800 as of November 3 but hit +1,000 just two weeks later after Toronto's stellar play. After 18 MVP-style games, Campbell still offers value at +900, which ranks fifth behind Andrei Vasilevskiy (+461), Igor Shesterkin (+800), Markstrom (+800), and Andersen (+874).
In our eyes, if the season ended today, Campbell should be the unanimous winner. The early market was slow to react to Campbell but the steam is starting to rise. This could be the last chance to get Leafs’ goalie at 9/1 as Campbell could be the betting favorite before Christmas.
We also think his 79/1 odds to win the league’s MVP offers much better value than Auston Matthews at 17/1. A goalie has captured the Hart trophy just twice in the last 20 years — and it’s likely Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl’s to lose — but if the Leafs take home the President’s trophy (+750), it could have a lot more to do with Campbell’s play than that of Matthews.
It’s safe to say that the Toronto fanbase has forgotten about Frederik Andersen.
Frederik Andersen Vezina Trophy odds
Although Campbell's play has the Toronto fanbase saying, "Freddy who?", the Carolina Hurricanes have been more than happy with their two-year, $9-million addition this offseason. The Canes lost both of their goaltenders from the 2021 shortened season and all Frederik Andersen has done since arriving is go 11-4 SU with a 1.98 GAA and a .932 save percentage. He sits third in wins, fourth in GAA, and seventh in save percentage.
Head coach Rod Brind’Amour (last season’s coach of the year) runs one of the best defensive-minded systems in the league and finished last season with a team GAA of 2.39, which was the fifth-lowest in hockey. Freddy sits third in goals saved above expected/60 (behind Bobrovsky and Campbell) and is getting heavy usage for a team that leads the league in points percentage.
If Andersen's play helps the Canes secure the top spot in a hyper-competitive Metro Division and NHL GMs continue using wins as a major criterion for Vezina voting, Freddy's name should certainly enter the Vezina conversation at season's end.
The books had some idea that Freddy would perform within Carolina’s system as his +1,900 odds to win the Vezina sat in the Top 10 prior to the first game of the season. Andersen moved into the Top 3 after a solid October and was priced at +1,100 behind Vasilveskiy and Shesterkin. He’s since moved to +874 as just Markstrom has passed him. However, if he can maintain the wins, a sub-2.00 GAA, and a save percentage that ranks in the Top 5, the former Leaf could offer great returns at better than 9/1.
Previous Vezina Trophy winners
In the table below, we have the past 10 Vezina winners and five criteria that are we consider the most important for goaltenders. A quick assessment of the table and its supporting data show the emphasis on Top-5 numbers in wins, SV%, GAA and goals saved above expected/60.
From the league, “The Vezina Trophy is awarded annually to the National Hockey League's (NHL) goaltender who is adjudged to be the best at this position. At the end of each season, the 32 NHL general managers vote to determine the winner.”
| Season | Winner | GP (rank) | Record (W rank) | GAA | SV% | GSAE/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Henrik Lundqvist | 62 (12th) | 39-15-5 (3rd) | 1.97 (3rd) | .903 (T-1st) | 0.412 (5th) |
| *2012-13 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 38 (12th) | 21-11-6 (10th) | 2.00 (5th) | .932 (2nd) | 0.187 (14th) |
| 2013-14 | Tuukka Rask | 58 (12th) | 36-15-6 (5th) | 2.04 (2nd) | .930 (2nd) | 0.179 (14th) |
| 2014-15 | Carey Price | 66 (5th) | 44-16-6 (1st) | 1.96 (1st) | .933 (1st) | 0.501 (1st) |
| 2015-16 | Braden Holtby | 66 (4th) | 48-9-7 (1st) | 2.20 (5th) | .922 (7th) | 0.380 (2nd) |
| 2016-17 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 63 (7th) | 41-17-5 (3rd) | 2.06 (1st) | .931 (1st) | 0.534 (2nd) |
| 2017-18 | Pekka Rinne | 59 (13th) | 42-13-4 (3rd) | 2.31 (3rd) | .927 (2nd) | 0.344 (11th) |
| 2018-19 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 53 (15th) | 39-10-4 (1st) | 2.40 (7th) | .925 (3rd) | 0.307 (5th) |
| 2019-20 | Connor Hellebuyck | 58 (2nd) | 31-21-5 (2nd) | 2.57 (6th) | .922 (2nd) | 0.444 (1st) |
| **2021 | Marc-Andre Fleury | 36 (9th) | 26-10-0 (3rd) | 1.98 (2nd) | .928 (2nd) | 0.500 (1st) |
| 2021-22 | Jack Campbell | 18 (1st) | 12-4-1 (T-1st) | 1.64 (1st) | .946 (1st) | 0.979 (2nd) |
| (As of 11/29) | Frederik Andersen | 15 (14th) | 11-4-0 (T-3rd) | 1.98 (4th) | .932 (7th) | 0.838 (3rd) |
*48-game season
**56-game season
GSAE/60 = Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (per Moneypuck)
Things to consider when betting on the Vezina Trophy
In the last eight seasons, no Vezina winner has finished outside the Top 5 in wins, GAA, SV%, and GSAE/60. Save percentage seems to be the most important indicator of Vezina success, as just one Vezina-winning goalie has finished outside the Top 3 in SV% over the last 10 seasons.
Wins also seem to be highly regarded from the 32 voting GMs, as seven of the previous winners have all finished within the Top 3 in victories. All these metrics have a correlation to WAR (wins above replacement) but it should also be noted that that five of the last seven Vezina winners have finished either first or second in goalie WAR.
Campbell (2nd) and Andersen (5th) are both in the Top 5 in WAR and play on teams that could possibly finish with the best record in hockey at the end of the regular season. They also have the fewest flaws compared to their direct competition, as Bobrovsky and Jacob Markstrom are starting to share the crease with their teams' young back-ups while Vasliveskiy and Shesterkin were mediocre in November.
This presents the perfect time to get on the Campbell/Andersen Vezina train as it could be the last call to get both Campbell (+900) and/or Andersen (+874) at these numbers.
