The Ottawa Senators host the Philadelphia Flyers at the Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday, November 14. The Sens can make it three in a row after winning consecutive games against Atlantic Division rivals.
There’s a huge 5-on-5 mismatch in the numbers between Philadelphia and Ottawa, and our Flyers vs. Senators predictions expect Ottawa to win its third straight in convincing fashion tonight.
Read on for my full NHL picks for this matchup with the puck drop set for 7 p.m. ET on TSN5.
Senators vs Flyers prediction
My Senators pick
Senators in regulation (-103 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators are 5-2 at home with four regulation wins, and they have received elite goaltending from No. 1 Linus Ullmark all year. He’s posted a .919 save percentage and 1.98 GAA with 0.12 goals saved above average per 60, and those numbers include a one-off stinker against the Buffalo Sabres on the road when he allowed five goals on 34 shots.
I value Ottawa's full lineup jumping the boards. The Senators boast an impressive 30-15-3 record when forwards Josh Norris, Tim Stutzle, and Shane Pinto have all been in the lineup since the 2020-21 campaign.
Defenseman Artem Zub also missed nine games with a concussion, so having the go-to blueliner back is another plus because he plays in all situations and averaged a healthy 21:01 of ice time per game last season.
The underlying numbers check out, too.
Ottawa sports a sixth-ranked 53.4 Corsi For percentage and 53.3 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5, and they’ve also allowed the third-fewest expected goals (1.88) per 60 on home ice.
Additionally, the Sens continue to have success with the man advantage with a fourth-ranked 29.2 power-play percentage, and their 19th-ranked 79.1 penalty-kill percentage has been dragged down by a 76.2% mark on the road. Ottawa has posted a respectable 81.8% ratio on home ice.
Turning to the visiting Philadelphia Flyers, they enter with a 26th-ranked 46.2 CF% and 45.9 xGF% at 5-on-5. Additionally, the goaltending situation for Philly is a mess, ranking 31st with a .874 team save percentage at 5-on-5. While having Samuel Ersson healthy helps, he still sports a career .894 SV%, 2.84 GAA, and -0.01 GSAA/60 across 74 games.
Senators vs Flyers Over/Under analysis
The Sens are finally at full health, and they’ve got a well-rounded lineup with a solid scoring core and former Vezina Trophy winner in net. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a notable move to the Ottawa side of this moneyline given the highlighted 5-on-5 mismatches.
Ottawa hasn’t hit an Over in six games (0-4-2), and I attribute it to overall improved team defense at 5-on-5. Additionally, with Philadelphia ranking 28th in goals and 27th in expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5, I don’t expect them to be held in check to also help the Under.
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Senators vs Flyers odds
Senators vs Flyers live odds
Senators vs Flyers opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa -1.5 (+140) | Philadelphia +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Ottawa -175 | Philadelphia +145
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-110) | Under 6 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
Senators vs Flyers trend
The Ottawa Senators are 5-2 on home ice with four regulation wins this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Flyers.
How to watch Senators vs Flyers
| Location: | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-14-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN5 |
Senators vs Flyers latest injuries
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