The Tampa Bay Lightning are on the outside looking in halfway through the 2023-24 season in terms of the playoff race and will face the Los Angeles Kings, who have dropped five straight games.
Despite the five-game skid — and losing Pheonix Copley for the season — LA is still one of the best teams in hockey at even strength across most metrics while the Bolts are struggling to get depth scoring and are running into an angry LA team tonight. Because of that, perhaps, the Kings are slight favorites in the NHL odds.
I break down the matchup and offer my free NHL picks for Kings vs. Lightning on Tuesday, January 9, 2024.
Kings vs Lightning odds
Kings vs Lightning predictions
The Los Angeles Kings are mired in a five-game losing streak and have been outscored 17-10 over that stretch. However, the Tampa Bay Lightning might still be in a worse place heading into tonight’s matchup and bettors are taking note.
It’s a season-high skid but this is still an LA team that ranks near the top of all 5-on-5 metrics dating back to December 1 and is one of the best defensive teams in hockey. The Kings are healthy and even with the five straight losses, they’ve still given up just 17 goals and allowed more than three in regulation just once over that stretch with that fourth goal coming in the last minute of a 3-3 tie vs. Washington on Sunday.
Because of that recent late loss, the Kings could add an emphasis on defensive play tonight.
"Yeah, we had chances at four, but if we, as a group, expect to score five every night to win, which is what we needed tonight, that's not going to happen,” head coach Todd McLellan told the media after the loss. “I'm a little more disappointed in the defensive part of it."
The Kings have the defensive players to lock down the Lightning, who are 2-4 straight up since the break with 16 goals scored and have a worse expected goals for/60 (xGF/60) than Montreal, Anaheim, Arizona, St. Louis, and Seattle at even strength since December 1.
LA is also good in net despite the loss of backup Pheonix Copley. Goalie Cam Talbot ranks sixth of 64 goalies (minimum 10 starts) in goals saved above expected/60 and sits fourth in save percentage with a very respectable .923 mark.
The Bolts are injured on the back end with Mikhail Sergachev out and Eric Cernak questionable. Tanner Jeannot, a key secondary contributor offensively, exited last game and is also questionable.
With the Kings working on the defensive side of things tonight and having the centers to lock down the shallow scoring depth of the Lightning, I’m backing the Kings on the moneyline. This game opened up as a pick ‘em but money is coming in on the Kings moving the ML as short as -120.
Some shopping around can help bettors get this as long as -113 as of this morning, which is a buy for me all the way to -120. The Kings are too good to drop six in a row.
My best bet: Kings ML (-113 at FanDuel)
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Kings vs Lightning same-game parlay
Kings moneyline
Under 6.5
Nick Perbix Over 2.5 blocked shots
Both teams are struggling and I'd be very surprised if the Kings let this game get loose. Six losses in a row is very improbable and Tampa is pretty far out of the No. 8 spot at the halfway marker.
There are big injuries on the Tampa blueline and Nick Perbix — the team leader in blocked shots per 60 minutes — should get big minutes again and see plenty of blocked-shot opportunities. He leads the team in blocked shots/60.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kings vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This ML is starting to move to one side and that’s towards the visitors. If Cernak is out, this could close possibly at LA -125.
This is the beginning of a five-game home stretch for the Bolts but bettors still might perceive this as the dynasty group, which they are not this year. They sit 12th in the East in point percentage and goal differential and sit in the bottom half of the league in Fenwick/Corsi % at even strength over the last six weeks.
Tampa was a +115 home dog vs. the Panthers back on December 27 — a 3-2 loss — and I have the Kings ranked a little better than the Panthers.
Looking at goals, the total opened at 6 and has crept up as most NHL totals do. There are still some 6s available as of the time of writing, but with the Kings likely focusing on defensive play and having the personnel to pull it off, if I could get this Under 6.5 at -120 or better, it would be a buy point.
Both teams have been profitable to the Under on the season but no team has been better than the Kings who sit at 13-22-1 O/U on the year.
Late bettors might have the best value on the Under 6.5 as the Kings’ ML is moving well this morning.
Kings vs Lightning betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Kings have hit the 1P Moneyline in 47 of their last 81 games (+18.05 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Lightning.
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Kings vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 9, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSW, BSSUN |
Kings vs Lightning latest injuries
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