The Los Angeles Kings walked into Rogers Place and stole Game 1 from the Edmonton Oilers, thanks to a third-period blunder from goalie Mike Smith. The Trevor Moore-Phillip Danault-Alex Iafallo line dominated Game 1 with seven total points in the 4-3 win and Los Angeles has cast some doubt into its opponent heading into tonight’s Game 2.
Can L.A. take a commanding 2-0 series lead back to California? Can Edmonton become less reliant on the power play and trust its goaltending? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Kings vs. Oilers.
Kings vs Oilers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Oilers opened at -190 on the moneyline for Game 2 but have moved to -200 with a total that has hit 6.5 after opening at 6. Edmonton closed as -200 moneyline favorites for Game 1 and that total closed at 6.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Kings vs Oilers predictions
Predictions made on 5/04/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kings vs Oilers game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2, Sportsnet
Kings vs Oilers series odds (LAK leads 1-0)
Kings: -106
Oilers: -113
Kings vs Oilers betting preview
Key injuries
Kings: Viktor Arvidsson F (Doubtful), Drew Doughty D (Out).
Oilers: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Kings vs Oilers head-to-head record since 2018-19
Kings: 4-7 SU, 37 goals for.
Oilers: 7-4 SU, 37 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Oilers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games in the playoffs as a favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Oilers.
Kings vs Oilers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
It’s the playoffs and that means it's time for the Kings’ Phillip Danault to shine. The centerman was a huge reason the Canadiens made it to the Cup Finals a season ago as he shut down the Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner line, a talented Winnipeg top line, and the Knights before falling to the Lightning.
The first-year King has picked up right where he left off a season ago and finished Game 1 with a goal, an assist, and a plus-three rating while also logging nearly 23 minutes of ice time. He also had a hand in containing the Evander Kane-Connor McDavid-Jesse Puljujarvi line that finished with an expected goal percentage of 35.2% at 5-on-5 in Game 1.
Edmonton was certainly outplayed at even strength in Monday’s opener and relied heavily on the power play for scoring opportunities. The Oilers finished with just 1.85 xgoals at even strength, per Money Puck, but 2.37 xgoals on the power play. If the Oilers are going to need an extra man to score while at home with the last change, it could spell trouble for Game 2.
They went 2-for-5 on the PP in Game 1 but the Kings finished the season taking the eighth-fewest penalties per game. Edmonton also draws the second-fewest penalties at 3.24 per game, so Monday’s five PP opportunities for the Oil might not be repeated tonight.
Another advantage that we’re giving to the Kings is in net. Jonathan Quick has won two Stanley Cups and has over 80 games of playoff experience. He’s coming off his best season in four years and stopped 36 of 39 shots in Game 1.
We would much rather back Quick than Mike Smith, who did not look sharp and finished with -1.39 goals saved above expected on Monday. Smith has had some dominating stretches of hockey, especially down the stretch, but he is 0-6 straight up in the postseason with the Oilers over his career with a 3.27 GAA and a .897 SV%.
With the combination of Anze Kopitar and Danault down the middle for the Kings, this is not a great matchup for the Oilers who are top-heavy and reliant on McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for scoring. This reminds us of the Montreal vs. Winnipeg series last year where Danault and the Habs swept the more offensive Jets in four.
Getting +170 again tonight is a fantastic number, especially with the doubt creeping into the Edmonton locker room and the goaltending situation very questionable. The Oilers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games in the playoffs as a favorite.
Prediction: Kings moneyline (+170 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Game 1 between the Oilers and Kings was one of two series openers that saw each team score at least three goals. Game 1 closed with a total of 6.0 (-120 to the Over) but all books are currently sitting at 6.5.
It’s hard to imagine Edmonton burying another pair of power-play goals, and its even-strength play was suffocated by Danault and Kopitar as the heavy favorites finished with under 2.00 xgoals at even strength.
Smith might be a bottom-tier playoff goalie, but the Kings finished the season in the Bottom 12 in goals per game and only five other teams scored fewer 5-on-5 markers than Todd McLellan’s group. The Kings feel if they can limit McDavid and Draisaitl, they can win this series, and driving the offense with their Top 6 group is second on the things-to-do list.
The Kings’ 34-44-4 O/U record was one of the best Under records in hockey. They accomplished this with a Top-10 GAA (2.83) and the No. 20 offense that scored just 2.87 goals per game — the second-worst mark of all 16 playoff teams, only ahead of the Stars.
Quick has also been a goalie to back in the playoffs as the American netminder has a 2.24 GAA and a .922 SV% over his postseason career that spans 86 games.
It’s not often we see books adjust their lines or totals after one game, but with this total sitting at 6.5 after closing at 6.0 in Game 1, we might be able to take advantage of a slight overreaction. Game 1 saw seven total goals, but things settled down in the second half where just one goal was scored over the final 30 minutes.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Best bet
The playoffs and regular season are two different beasts. Expecting top players to hit their 1.5-point props is wishful thinking — even with someone as dominant as McDavid. The Art Ross winner finished Game 1 with a goal and an assist and the goal was quite the individual effort while the assist came on the team’s second power-play goal.
McDavid has 24 points in 22 career playoff games and we’re putting his probability of Under 1.5 points at 56 to 60% while his -110 is implying roughly 50% probability considering the book’s margins.
To make things even more difficult for McDavid, he doesn’t have to worry about just Danault, but also Kopitar who is also an elite defending centerman. This one-two punch of the Kings is the team’s strength and one it will be relying on heavily to win four games. McDavid has recorded a multi-point game just six times over his 22 career playoff games.
Pick: McDavid Under 1.5 points (-110)
Stats from Money Puck and NHL.
