Maple Leafs vs Avalanche Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Hot Offenses Show Up

The Toronto Maple Leafs wrap up a three-game road trip tonight in Colorado with the Avalanche as +110 underdogs. Neither team has looked impressive out of the break and coincidentally enough, both clubs recently lost 6-3 to the lowly Coyotes.

With each club playing some loose hockey following the holidays and the books pricing this total using unsustainable numbers on both sides, bettors can get some value on the Over tonight.

Find out more in my free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche.

Maple Leafs vs Avalanche best odds

Maple Leafs vs Avalanche picks and predictions

It hasn’t been a great restart for the Maple Leafs who won 5-4 in overtime vs. the Blues and just lost as -300 road favorites in Arizona in a 6-3 loss. Both Toronto goaltenders have seen action since the break and neither has impressed.

Ilya Samsonov finished with -1.7 goals saved above expected vs. the Blues while Matt Murray gave up four goals on 21 shots vs. the Yotes on Thursday. Toronto had been one of the best defensive teams in hockey, but a lot of that has been through unsustainable play in net and a defensive system that was implemented due to all the injuries on the blue line.

Now the Leafs are getting healthier on the back end, but they've given up 10 goals over their last two games and face a Colorado team that is decimated with injuries but has finally found the back of the net of late after struggling in the middle parts of December. 

The Avalanche are fifth in shots on goal this month but scored two or fewer times in seven of their 14 games. Now those shots are going in and they face a team with goaltending that's regressing. 

The Leafs didn’t get a single point from their top-six forwards at 5-on-5 Thursday night but still managed to see a nine-goal game. Toronto is also dealing with some new lines as Dryden Hunt is now in the lineup and Morgan Rielly is back. All of these things can affect the defensive structure that was so important to Toronto’s success.

I’m not trusting either Toronto goalie right now with the Under, and likely Colorado starter, Alex Georgiev, has allowed nine goals with an .847 SV% since the restart in two games. 

Both teams are being priced like the teams they were before, but regression is coming for both of them which favors the Over in both cases: Toronto with its goaltending and Colorado with its shot production. 

Toronto had not seen a closing number of 6.0 all season until December and is now 6-2 to the Over in totals below 6.5 this month. We will start seeing 6.5s more often for the Leafs in 2023. 

Give me goals tonight in a non-conference meeting. 

My best bet: Over 6 (-105 at SIA)

Maple Leafs vs Avalanche moneyline analysis

The Leafs are coming off a rather embarrassing 6-3 loss to the Coyotes on Thursday as -300 favorites and almost gave away another game Tuesday as a -175 road favorite in St. Louis. In short, Toronto has not looked great following the break. The goaltending has been suspect while the Leafs winning high-scoring games has not been the team’s M/O.

Toronto saw a 15-game stretch in November where it played in just two games where both teams scored at least three goals, and it went 11-4 SU. Since then, it's played in five of those games over a 10-game span (6-4 SU with two wins coming in OT). 

The Leafs are getting healthier (Reilly is back), but they come into tonight in poor form and not playing the hockey that has made them successful. Although I would easily put them as 10-to-20 point favorites on neutral ice to a Nathan MacKinnon-less Colorado team.

The Avalanche have taken two losses following the break but have found their scoring touch which had been an issue in December. Georgiev is not a goalie coming in with great form either, having allowed nine goals in two games since the restart. 

Injuries have also been a massive deal for the Avs this season — but also something they’ve learned to deal with as they've been playing shorthanded for the majority of the season — as they still have the 11th-best point percentage and a positive goal differential. 

Coming into this game, Colorado will be without its captain Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, Bowen Byram, Josh Manson, Pavel Francouz, and MacKinnon. That’s three top-six forwards, two top-four defensemen, and a No. 2 goalie. 

It’s tough to get excited to take either side on the moneyline here as the form of both teams is uninspiring, goaltending is an issue, and the injuries are concerning. I’d want the Avs at +125 or better or the Leafs at -105 or better. Right now, with Toronto at -130, this is a no-zone for me. The market agrees with me as the Leafs opened at -115 and have gotten shorter.   

Maple Leafs vs Avalanche Over/Under analysis

With my best bet the Over 6, there isn’t much left to explain but I'll try to simplify the edge we have on this Over.

Colorado is being priced as a team struggling to score, but its shots on goal and scoring chances have been indicating that a big surge in production is coming — and we’re starting to see that out of the break. 

Toronto was priced as an Over team (6.5 totals) for the first two months but some unsustainable goaltending has brought its totals down to 6. Now we're seeing the goalies regress which is favoring the Over, but we’re getting an overcorrected number on the total (6).

Neither team has looked like the defensive teams they were before the break as the two clubs have allowed a combined 21 goals over four games, and both were humiliated by the Coyotes by a matching 6-3 score in defeat. 

Both teams have high-end scoring talent, and even with all the injuries for the home side, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar are game-changers while the addition of Dennis Malgin has helped the Avs’ top-six.

I love this Over 6.

Maple Leafs vs Avalanche betting trend to know

The Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Avalanche.

Maple Leafs vs Avalanche game info

Maple Leafs vs Avalanche key injuries

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