We’ve got nine games on the NHL schedule tonight, including another matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets.
It’s the third meeting between the two clubs in 15 days, and the NHL odds suggest the Leafs should win the rubber match, but the trends don’t look rosy for the Leafs against sub-.500 teams.
This is why I’m leaning toward the NHL player prop market to find the edge in tonight’s game. See who I'm backing — and why — in my free NHL picks for the Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets odds
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter tonight’s game on losing terms, after falling to Ottawa 4-2 on Tuesday, while the Columbus Blue Jackets also are in a funk, having lost three in a row, including a 4-1 defeat to the Buds six days ago.
The season series is tied at one win each, with Columbus taking the first game in a wild 6-5 win, where the Buds stormed back from a five-goal deficit in the third, only to lose in overtime.
However, Toronto has outshot the Jackets 78-63 in those two games, and that shot discrepancy is exactly where I see an advantage for bettors tonight.
The Maple Leafs are registering the seventh-most shots on net per game, with Columbus giving up the second-most shots on goal, allowing 34.2 shots per contest.
Insert William Nylander's odds, as his shot prop total is set at 3.5 tonight.
The Swedish sniper registered 12 shots on goal total through the first two meetings against the Blue Jackets and has gone over this number in four of his last six contests overall. Frankly, Nylander has been a shooting machine all season long, averaging 4.3 shots per game, which is good for sixth in the NHL.
Additionally, a reunion up on a line with John Tavares should also give Nylander a boost in the shot department: He’s been on the ice for an additional four shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with JT, compared to when he's on the ice with Auston Matthews.
With Nylander reclaiming the role as the trigger man once again on his line with JT and Tyler Bertuzzi, I expect him to be ready to fire the pill when the puck lands on his stick tonight.
My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal. (-160 at Sports Interaction)
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Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets same-game parlay
William Nylander anytime goal
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5
Let's start this SGP with an anytime goal from the aforementioned Nylander. He’s scored in both games against Columbus this year, and with the team giving up a lot of shots and nearly four goals per game, Nylander is a prime candidate to find the back of the net tonight.
Death, taxes, and Matthews scoring against the Blue Jackets. An anytime goal from AM34 has cashed in eight straight contests against Columbus, which makes a lot of sense as he is among the NHL leaders in high-danger shots, and the Jackets allow the seventh-most chances from the danger zone.
For my final leg, let’s roll with Over 3.5 on the team total for the Maple Leafs. Toronto is averaging four goals per game in December, which should bode well against a poor defensive team — that has even worse goaltending — as the Jackets have surrendered 4+ goals in five of their last six games.
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Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs are sizable road favorites tonight at -200, with the Blue Jackets entering as +165 home dogs. The Leafs have been extremely Jekyll and Hyde this season defensively, which has made them a tough moneyline team to bet on.
On paper, yes… Toronto should crush the Jackets. However, as we’ve seen time and time again this season, Toronto plays down to its opponent too often. I wouldn’t make a moneyline bet on Toronto based on the lack of value in the odds, but perhaps a sprinkle at -130 on a 3-way regulation win makes a bit more sense.
The total for tonight’s game has climbed to 7.0, shaded to the Under at -120, while the Over is offering even money. Trends would suggest the Over is the play, especially after the Leafs named Ilya Samsonov the starting goalie tonight.
But honestly, the key to victory for the Leafs tonight should be a commitment to detail on the defensive side of the game to help out their goalie as much as possible. This could make the Under the play if you feel Toronto will win the game.
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs have hit the third-period moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets.
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Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets game info
| Location: | Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Friday, December 29, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Ohio |
Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets latest injuries
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