Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets Picks and Predictions: Offenses Run Wild Tonight

Death, taxes, and the Toronto Maple Leafs being maddeningly frustrating. Three of the absolute truths in life as Toronto continues a roller-coaster of inconsistent play, most recently taking two ugly losses at home.

The offense has been fantastic, the defense has been bad, and the goaltending has been the stuff of nightmares for the Leafs... but they'll get a chance to get right tonight against a Columbus Blue Jackets side that's lost four of five and has been following a similar script to the Buds.

The Leafs are sizeable NHL betting favorites on the road tonight — can we trust them to win with our free NHL picks and predictions? Heck, can we trust anything — other than another hateful night for goaltenders — in this Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets matchup? 

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Leafs opened at around -205 and remain in that range as of 2 p.m. ET, with books generally offering the Buds from -198 all the way up to -250 and the Blue Jackets sitting in the +175 to +180 range.

This is a large change from the last meeting between these teams about two weeks ago, when Columbus closed at +233, also at home. The total for that February 22 game closed at 7, which is were most books are sitting for tonight's contest too — although some outlets still are at the opening number of 6.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets predictions

• Prediction: Maple Leafs 3ML (-135)
• Prediction: Over 7 (+110)
• Best bet: Maple Leafs 3TT Over 3.5 (-140)

Predictions made on 3/7/2022 at 3:08 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets game info

• Location: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH
• Date: Monday, March 7, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Hulu

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets betting preview

Key injuries

Maple Leafs: Ondrej Kase RW (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Out).
Blue Jackets: Adam Boqvist D (Out), Alexandre Texier C (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets head-to-head record

Maple Leafs: 1-0-1, 8 goals for.
Blue Jackets: 1-1-0, 8 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 35-14-4 in the Blue Jackets' last 53 home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets.

Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Goals, goals, goals. Some are good, some are bad.
Goals, goals, goals. The offenses are great and the goalies are sad.

OK, so while that isn't the greatest remix of all time (although that song certainly is a banger), it perfectly sums up the current state of these two teams.

The Leafs have been downright scary offensively over the last 2+ months, sitting second in the league at 4.08 goals per game since January 1, and more recently potted at least three goals in eight of their last 10 contests (4.1 gpg).

During this recent 10-game stretch, Toronto is sixth in the NHL at 5-on-5 Corsi For Percentage with a whopping 61.15% of all shot attempts and seventh with 29.27 scoring chances for per 60, while sitting sixth in fewest expected goals against/60 and being in the bottom half of the league in high-danger chances against/60 (per Natural Stat Trick).

So, why have the Leafs lost five of their last eight games and seven of their last 12? Well, the Buds have been hemorrhaging goals — they're 28th in the league since February 14 at a cool 4.0 per game — and their last eight games have seen the following opponent scores: 6, 5, 3, 7, 1, 4, 5, 6.

Woof.

The primary culprit has been sieve-like goaltending, with Jack Campbell giving up five goals in seven of his last 14 appearances (3.99 GAA, .873 SV% during that span) and tonight's starter Petr Mrazek being also as equally inept, with 3+ goals allowed in five of his last seven outings (3.51 GAA, .878 SV%  in that stretch) and the duo posting a whopping -19.03 goals saved above average since the calendar turned to 2022.

Thankfully, Columbus' goaltending has been almost as bad, with Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins (tonight's goalie for Columbus) posting a -11.36 GSAA during the same span, with Merzlikins giving up at least three goals in six straight outings and 10 of his last 11 overall (4.17 GAA, .887 SV%).

The Blue Jackets have also cooled off after being red-hot in February, dropping four of their last five games while sitting 30th in 5-on-5 CF% (46.16%), 26th in xGA/60 (2.86), 30th in high-danger chance percentage (40.85%), and 27th in penalty kill percentage (66.7%).

We're not enthused with the prospect of leaning with the Leafs, especially since they had two pathetic outings in front of yet-again packed home crowds (including losing 5-1 to Buffalo as -401 favorites), but getting to the low-profile locale of Columbus, Ohio should be good for Toronto, which has shown resiliency in avoiding long losing skids, as it has lost three straight games just twice this season.

Look for the Maple Leafs to come out with another strong effort and take care of business — shaky goalies be damned. There's no value in taking them at -200 on the straight moneyline, but if we drop it to the regulation (3-way) moneyline, getting Toronto at -135 against a clearly inferior team is slightly more palatable.

Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way moneyline (-135)

Over/Under analysis

Goals, goals, goals. Some are good, some are bad.
Goals, goals, goals. The Over is the play to be had.

We know, we know. It's terrible... but it's right.

The Over is 16-6-1 in Toronto's last 23 games, while going 11-3-2 in Columbus' last 16.

Both starting goalies (and their potential relief) have shown an extended stretch of little-to-no ability at stopping pucks.

And while neither power play has been particularly efficient lately (Toronto in a  1-for-15 funk, Columbus 3-for-14), both penalty kill units have also — shocker — been struggling, with the Leafs surrendering a power-play goal in three straight games and the Blue Jackets conceding a ppg in four of their last five contests.

We don't see the likes of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Patrik Laine, and the rest of the offensive star power on the ice keeping quiet tonight. We'll take the Over 6.5 with some extra juice... and you know what? We'll take the Over 7 too — because...y'know...

Goals, goals, goals.

Prediction: Over 7 (+110)

Best bet

Don't ask us to explain how Toronto managed just one goal against the woeful Sabres on home ice (in the return of full fans in the stands), we'll just chalk that up to a truly flat effort that goes under the category of "that's sports."

Instead, we'll focus on the team that has 19 goals in its last three games outside of the Buffalo debacle, and we're licking our chops at the prospect of Toronto firing away at Merzlikins, who it's generally more shocking when he doesn't give up at least four goals in a game.

We're expecting a lot of goals, and we're expecting the Leafs to win in regulation, so we're eyeing the Buds to go over their 60-minute team total tonight: Giving us a bet, that removes their terribly goaltending from the equation, and is roughly the same price as them to win in regulation... but without having to worry about them actually winning.

Pick: Maple Leafs to score Over 3.5 goals in regulation (-138)

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