The Toronto Maple Leafs will start a three-game road trip following the Christmas break and visit the St. Louis Blues who, at +155, are the longest they’ve been at home all season by 25 points.
It’s always tough to handicap the first game after a big break, but the Leafs’ top line has been unstoppable and Jordan Binnington is a great matchup to chase points. With William Nylander and Auston Matthews both having point totals of 1.5, is their linemate the best place to hit the Over?
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Blues.
Maple Leafs vs Blues best odds
Maple Leafs vs Blues picks and predictions
Michael Bunting has recorded a point in 12 of his last 13 games, including a 10-game point streak. He’s playing on the top line with Auston Matthews and William Nylander who both have point totals of 1.5. Bunting also saw time on the first power-play unit with Rasmus Sandin on the sidelines and Sheldon Keefe going with five forwards before the break.
Even at 5-on-5, Bunting will have plenty of chances to hit the scoresheet vs. the Blues and Jordan Binnington, who has struggled all season and went into the break with a .883 save percentage across his last 10 starts.
The Leafs are heavy road favorites and have a projected team total of 3.5. The first line is more than probable to record a point as Matthews and Nylander also have a combined 26 even-strength points over their last 12 games.
Bunting was also finding his scoring touch before the break and had five goals and 15 shots over his last six games. The line was looking to get him the puck and bettors might not have to rely on just a secondary assist today for a Bunting point.
After shedding an early-season slump, Bunting has been contributing at an elite rate and with a possible role on PP1, Bunting to record a point at -141 is the best bet on the board today in a game where I think the Over 6 is also in play.
My best bet: Michael Bunting Over 0.5 points (-141 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Blues moneyline analysis
Here is how I price this game: St. Louis home-ice advantage 15 points (the break doesn’t help the Blues as much), Toronto special teams advantage 10 points, Toronto goalie advantage 15 points, Toronto lineup advantage 30 points, the Jordan Kyrou injury 5-10 points. That puts my ML at around -160 for the visitors, which is where it opened before money moved it to -175.
We’re starting to see some value on the home side and it might be worth a wait-and-see approach as I’d play St. Louis at +165. The break also offers a unique situation where either team could come out flat, giving more edge to the underdog. However, the Leafs are hands down the better team coming into this game, but the market movement could open bettors to a solid price on the Blues.
The last we saw the Maple Leafs, they were playing a Wednesday afternoon game and heading into the holiday break with a 21-7-6 record (the third-best point percentage) and a plus-29 goal differential (33 games), which is the No. 2 mark in hockey behind the Bruins.
Now the Buds start a three-game, five-night road trip that begins in St. Louis vs. the Blues, who are 5-6 straight up in December with a negative goal differential (minus-0.37 per game).
The Blues are one of the streakiest teams in hockey with a losing streak of eight games and a winning streak of seven games under their belts this season. The Blues are an incredible 4-13 SU following a loss on the year, are playing sub-.500 hockey, and have the seventh-worst goal differential in the league.
Their best player this season, Jordan Kyrou, is dealing with a neck injury and is questionable for tonight’s game. He missed the team’s last two games before the break — both losses. If he sits again, it is certainly worth 5-10 points on the moneyline as he is a point-per-game player who had six goals in three games before going down with the injury.
The Leafs are still dealing with injuries to the blue line as Rasmus Sandin, Jake Muzzin, and Morgan Reilly are all out. This could be catastrophic for most teams, but the Leafs have plugged the holes and are smothering teams while allowing the fifth-fewest shots per game on the season.
Toronto’s Top-10 penalty kill will also get a slight break as the rest could slow down a St. Louis power play that had scored in four straight games. On the season, however, the Leafs still own the more successful power play while the Blues rank 29th on the penalty kill.
No goalie has been confirmed as of this morning, but the Leafs have the edge in net regardless of who mans the crease. Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov showed some weaknesses right before the break but these are still two Top-25 goalies in the league while Binnington has a save percentage below .900 on the season and a 3.63 GAA with a .876 SV% over his last 11 starts. He’s allowed three or more goals in nine of those 11 games.
This is by far the longest the Blues have been at home this season as they were +130 home dogs vs. the Hurricanes on December 1. This game is a very good example of betting a price vs. a team as the value certainly lies with the Blues, especially in the first game following the layover.
Maple Leafs vs Blues Over/Under analysis
The Leafs have been one of the most profitable Under teams on the season (12-21-1 O/U) while the Blues, thanks to inconsistent goaltending and some deep offense, have been cashing Overs with a 21-10-3 O/U mark. This total opened at 6 and is starting to gain some steam to the Over.
The books haven’t adjusted the totals on St. Louis games of late as the Blues went 7-2-1 O/U in their last 10 and saw a total of 6.5 just once over that stretch. Binnington has allowed three or more goals in 65% of his starts and nine of his last 11.
Special teams alone should see this game close -120 or -125 to the Over 6. The Blues and Leafs both have loads of talent on the power play and rank in the Top 12 while the Blues have one of the worst penalty kills in hockey. Binnington also ranks as the second-worst goalie in goals saved above expected/60 at 4-on-5.
The hardest part of this total handicap is the uncertainty following the time off. This can go both ways: either team could come out flat or give up plenty of chances. With the Leafs, I’m leaning toward the latter.
Toronto is at its best when it plays a defensive game, which isn’t something that’s easy to do with the time off. Toronto is still thin on the blue line and will be adding a new forward to the group with Dryden Hunt.
It’s tough not to look at a Blues game total of 6 and not take the Over. The Leafs’ defensive play could take a game to get back together following some time off and if St. Louis does play with the lead, Toronto also has the perfect offense to play catchup.
I’m playing this Over up to -125.
Maple Leafs vs Blues betting trend to know
The Underdog is 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Blues.
Maple Leafs vs Blues game info
| Location: | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 27, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet Ontario, Bally Sports Midwest |
Maple Leafs vs Blues key injuries
