The Toronto Maple Leafs take on the league’s best tonight in the Boston Bruins but have shortened up on the moneyline thanks to Auston Matthews’ return to practice this morning.
Both teams are coming off a loss, but it will be the Bruins who could spoil Matthews’ potential return to the lineup.
Can Boston improve on their 19-1-3 home record this year, or can Toronto take two points in a likely low-scoring affair?
Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Bruins on January 14.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins best odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins picks and predictions
Auston Matthews returning to the ice for practice this morning is certainly complicating the handicap tonight, and because of the uncertainties, Toronto player props are hard to come by. This was an offense that managed just three goals against average teams, and it's not the best spot for the center who is playing through a possible injury.
Matthews is dealing with an undisclosed injury that looks like it will linger through the season, and the star forward has also been battling an illness this week. He had been averaging 3.1 shots per game since the restart and has a tough matchup vs. the Bruins and will likely see a lot of Patrice Bergeron locking him down.
Matthews confirms he will play tonight. Didn’t want to go into specifics about his injury but going forward he said it’s “something I’m going to have to stay on top of.” @BodogCA @RinkWideTOR
— David Alter (@dalter) January 14, 2023
Boston and Toronto are two of the nine teams that allow fewer than 30 shots per game on the season. This game is not projecting for many shots, and the last meeting had just 49 between the two teams.
With the Bruins getting the luxury of the last change tonight and Patrice Bergeron winning 62% of his face-offs (Matthews at 51%), offensive zone shifts for Toronto’s top line aren’t going to lead to as much shot production as usual.
This prop will make or break on the power play, and with Matthews likely not at 100%, the Leafs’ top power-play unit could continue to struggle with zone entries and O-zone time at 5-on-4. Sheldon Keefe had the team practicing with both five forwards and a 4F-and-1D approach, which shows this team isn’t so sure of its own play with the man advantage. Boston also currently owns the league’s best penalty kill.
My best bet: Auston Matthews Under 3.5 shots on goal (-105)
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Maple Leafs vs Bruins moneyline analysis
The Bruins are coming off their first home loss in regulation after a 3-0 defeat to the Kraken on Thursday. They’ve dominated at home this season with a plus-38 goal differential across 23 games at TD Garden and are 8-0 SU following a loss.
This is the best goal-suppressing team in hockey that has a 1.96 GAA at home. They are now facing a Toronto team that has totaled three goals vs. the Red Wings and Predators in the two games without Matthews.
Toronto closed as -130 home favorites in their last game against Boston, making this a 75-point swing. Home ice is worth around 25 points (50 in a change of venue), and the TJ Brodie injury might be worth 5-10 points, so there isn’t a real steal here in terms of price. Boston opened at -150, moved to -160, then dropped to -145 after the Leafs practiced and Matthews skated.
This is going to be a low-scoring affair if Ilya Samsonov or Matt Murray can maintain their recent stretch of solid goaltending. The last meeting had a closing total of 6.5, and tonight we’re seeing an O/U of 6 that's mostly taking some money on the Under. The Toronto offense has looked lost with the changes it has had to make with Matthews sitting.
The loss of Brodie has had a big effect as well, as the Buds' penalty kill will face the league’s No. 3 power play tonight. Brodie leads the team in shorthanded time on ice at 59%.
Toronto will have to play a near-perfect game to come away with two points against a Boston team that has dominated the league all season. The Matthews addition could steam this line to -140, but that’s about as far as it should go.
The value right now is on the best home team in hockey, and Boston hasn’t been shorter than -160 at home since early in the season.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins Over/Under analysis
The O/U adjustment from 6.5 to 6 since the last meeting is warranted, and I think tonight’s Under will see some steady money come in tonight despite Matthews’ possible return.
The Leafs could face Linus Ullmark and his 1.88 GAA, which leads the league. He's the betting favorite for the Vezina but hasn’t played in two straight games since mid-December. If he sits, Jeremy Swayman will get the nod. Swayman has allowed two or fewer goals in five of his last six starts and benefits from a team that has allowed just 58 goals at 5-on-5 through 41 games — the best mark in hockey.
Goals will also be at a premium between these two teams, as both have seen each other quite often over the last five seasons. The last meeting saw two of the three goals scored with the man advantage, and 5-on-5 play will be tight tonight as Boston has allowed the least amount of goals at even strength with Toronto just behind them at third least.
Even without goalie confirmations, I’m going with the market and leaning on the Under tonight, which should close around -115 for the Under.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in Boston. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Bruins.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, January 14, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, NESN |
Maple Leafs vs Bruins key injuries
