Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Picks and Predictions: First-Period Frenzy

Hockey's most iconic rivalry is renewed on Family Day with the Toronto Maple Leafs visiting the Montreal Canadiens tonight.

The Leafs' high-powered offense continues to buzz, but questions about the goaltending (deja vu, anyone?) are starting to cause some concern. Is it enough of a worry, however, that it has our NHL picks and predictions fading Toronto — who is a massive NHL betting favorite — against the suddenly pesky Habs?

We break down the Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens matchup below, including how we think Monday's game will unfold and where the best value lies.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Leafs opened as whopping -341 road favorites tonight, with most books moving to the -400 range at the time of writing... and some spots going as high as -425. The total opened at 6.0 and while most books have moved to 6.5, some are still dealing the original number, heavily shaded to the Over.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens predictions

• Prediction: Montreal +1.5 (+135)
• Prediction: Over 6 (-125)
• Best bet: First period Over 1.5 (-130)

Predictions made on 2/21/2022 at 12:14 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens game info

• Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC
• Date: Monday, February 21, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Rogers Sportsnet, RDS

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens betting preview

Key injuries

Maple Leafs: None to report.
Canadiens: Jake Allen G (Out), Christian Dvorak C (Out), Joel Armia RW (Out), Joel Edmundson D (Out), Jonathan Drouin LW (Out), Mathieu Perreault C (Out), David Savard D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens head-to-head record (since 2020)

Maple Leafs: 8-2-1, 36 goals for.
Canadiens: 3-7-1, 26 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1-1 in the Canadiens' last eight games on the second half of a back-to-back. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Puck line analysis

The Leafs have come out of the All-Star break 3-3 with a mixed bag of performances, most recently a rough 6-3 home loss to the St. Louis Blues on Saturday night.

What's peculiar about all six games, however, is that Toronto had a massive advantage in shot generation (5-on-5 Corsi For percentage of 60.6, 69.8, and 60.2) in the three losses and was on the wrong side of that stat in the three victories.

What's been hurting the Buds is this six-game stretch is lackluster goaltending at 5 on 5, with Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek posting a combined 3.25 GAA, .894 SV%, and -3.80 goals saved above expected (per Moneypuck), with only one of those outings seeing the netminder post a GSAE better than 0.37. Neither goalie has been able to make the really tough saves lately, with the duo posting a .765 high-danger save percentage at 5 on 5(which is 26th in the league, per Natural Stat Trick), which is really dragged down by Mrazek — tonight's starter — stopping just 62.5% of chances in his last two outings.

Normally, we'd discount these goaltending issues as the Leafs are facing a Montreal team that is 31st in goals, 29th in expected goals, and dead last in the standings... but the Habs have started to show signs of competitiveness.

After suffering a 7-1 embarrassment against New Jersey, Montreal shipped out coach Dominique Ducharme and brought in Martin St. Louis to be the new bench boss. Now, the Hall-of-Famer is lacking in professional coaching experience but the team has played much better under his tutelage, going 2-3 and riding back-to-back wins over the Blues and New York Islanders.

Since St. Louis took over, the Habs have been much better at 5 on 5, sitting 12th in CF% and 15th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (the Leafs are sixth and 14th during that span), while tonight's starter, Sam Montembeault, has a 2.21 GAA, .935 SV%, and 1.86 GSAA at even strength in four appearances under the new coach.

Montreal still has a massive talent disparity compared to Toronto's big guns, however, and the Leafs also have a big edge with their No. 2-ranked power play over the last month going against Montreal's 26th-ranked unit during that span, so make no mistake: Toronto will win this game.

But a moneyline price now in the -400 neighborhood — and the -1.5 puck line also sitting between -120 and -150 — is not particularly appetizing, considering the Leafs' leaky goaltending and with Montreal's spirited play. So, we're actually going to lean with the Habs getting up for tonight's game and hanging with the Buds, covering the +1.5 puck line in the process at plus money.

Prediction: Montreal +1.5 (+135)

Over/Under analysis

We mentioned the disparity between the two teams' power-play units and compounding the problem for the Habs is they are sixth in the NHL over the last month in times going shorthanded per game (3.18) — and it goes up to 4.4 opponent power plays per game over their last five contests on the second half of a back-to-back.

Needless to say, giving the Leafs multiple man-advantage chances is a good recipe for delivering pain and misery for goalies, regardless of how improved you are at even strength.

Despite the improved 5-on-5 play, the Habs still aren't scoring much, with 2.2 goals per game (and failing to top three goals) under St. Louis' command. They've been a bit unlucky, however, as they're averaging 2.52 xGF/60 during that span (up from the season-long mark of 2.23) while averaging nearly four more shots per game than before he took over.

Facing Mrazek, who has given up 3+ goals in three of his last four appearances, Montreal should be able to scratch a few across, while the Leafs' have scored at least two even-strength goals in seven of their last eight games and will get some help from the aforementioned power play.

The Over has cashed in 19 of Toronto's last 26 games and 10 of Montreal's last 14. We'll bank on it hitting again tonight too.

Prediction: Over 6 (-125)

Best bet

Both of these teams have an affinity for fireworks in the first period, but one team tends to have the action more in their favor.

First, a goal has been scored in the first 10 minutes in seven straight Habs games and nine of their last 10 overall, plus four straight Leafs contests and eight of their last 10, so they're really not wasting much time.

But looking at the opening 20 minutes overall and the Leafs are second in the NHL with 1.21 first-period goals scored per game (credit to @PsuOtto), sixth with 2.06 total first-period goals per contest, and have cashed the 1P Over 1.5 in seven of their last 10 games. 

Montreal isn't as proficient with first-period offense, sitting dead-last in the league in 1P goals scored per game, but it does give up the most goals in the opening frame — a robust 1.2 per game — and have also seen the O1.5 cash in seven of its last 10 first periods.

So there's a number of ways we can approach this, but...

- The first 10 minutes Over 0.5 is juiced way too high (sitting around -185).
- The Leafs 1P moneyline is an ugly -270 (considering Toronto is actually just 2-4 in its last six first periods).
- Both teams to score in the first period is +170, except Montreal struggles to score in the opening 20 minutes.

So we're just going to go with the first-period Over 1.5 at -130, which gives us the biggest flexibility for any number of offensive outcomes in the first period — without being tied to one team winning and both teams scoring — while still giving us a solid price to make a decent profit.

Pick: First period Over 1.5 (-130)

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