The Toronto Maple Leafs’ five-game road trip continues and stops in Vancouver tonight to take on the Canucks as decent -220 road favorites.
The Nucks have been an Over machine, with just five Unders across their last 25 games while the Leafs will likely be rolling with Matt Murray in net. Is it point night for both teams at Rogers Arena tonight in prime time?
Find out my best bets for the Maple Leafs vs. Canucks in my NHL betting picks and predictions.
Maple Leafs vs Canucks best odds
Maple Leafs vs Canucks picks and predictions
The Maple Leafs’ offense has scored just four goals over their last two games but gets a much easier matchup tonight in Vancouver vs. one of the most generous teams in hockey.
The Canucks have been one of the best Over teams all season and have hit the Under just five times in their last 25 games. That hasn’t been from winning either as Vancouver has the worst point percentage over that stretch, which is telling when you consider the other bad teams in hockey right now.
So in a solid matchup vs. a team that has the worst penalty kill in hockey history, I’m rolling with the Leafs’ best offensive player on their current road trip and that’s Mitch Marner.
The star winger has six points through three games on the road trip and has contributed to 66% of the team’s nine goals. He’s shooting the puck a ton and is coming off a season-high eight-shot performance vs. the Flames, which was also 24% of the Leafs’ total shots. The output is even more impressive when you consider Calgary allows the second-fewest shots per game.
With Auston Matthews seemingly playing through an injury and struggling to create shooting space, it’s been Marner of late shooting more than usual, and I see that trend continuing tonight in a game that I also think is point night for the Buds.
Marner’s Over 1.5 points at +155 is in play but I’m happy to take his modest Over 2.5 shots at -120 which didn’t adjust much from the previous matchup. For example, Matthews’ total moved from 3.5 to 4.5 game-to-game.
My best bet: Mitch Marner Over 2.5 shots (-120 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Canucks moneyline analysis
The Leafs rebounded nicely in Calgary on Thursday with a needed 2-1 win following a no-show in Edmonton the night before. Now they go West again to face a Vancouver team that has the worst point percentage in hockey since January 1, has the worst penalty kill in the history of the league, and also sports the worst GAA in 2023 at 4.13.
Despite the great matchup, I’m not totally sold on Toronto and am not willing to pay the tax tonight.
The Leafs have had plenty of issues playing down to their opponents this season and tonight could be another case of it. This will be the last West Coast game of their current five-game road trip before they play in New Jersey on Tuesday. I think this Toronto offense can pot some goals tonight, but with Matt Murray getting his first start in 45 days, it’s tough to trust the Buds at -220 after opening at -190.
Murray hasn’t been available for a long time and his health has been in question for the majority of the season. Before going down, the now No. 2 was 6-5 SU with a .899 SV% in his 11 games before the injury.
This is also a Toronto blue line that is trying some things out with two new bodies in the lineup and has been dressing seven defensemen. There haven’t been a lot of reps together and rotating seven D-man can create communication problems. The Leafs are absolutely the better team, but the schedule, goaltending, and roster adjustments are concerning.
Despite trading away some talent, the Canucks’ offense has been decent, scoring 3.20 goals per game since January 1 which ranks in the top half of the league. Scoring hasn’t been an issue for Vancouver.
This is going to be a high-scoring contest and I think if bettors like the Leafs here, taking them on the team total Over 3.5 at around -135 is a better bet than a winner in regulation at -120.
Maple Leafs vs Canucks Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 6.5 and has seen some money come in on the Over and I expect it to close at 7. I’m loving two-way scoring tonight and riding on the Over 6.5.
Thatcher Demko is back for the Canucks after missing three months. Before hitting the IR, he was one of the worst goalies statistically. From October to December, the likely Vancouver starter owned a 3.93 GAA, a .883 SV%, and had the eighth-worst goals saved above expected/60 this season.
He faces the No. 7 scoring offense that also has the No. 3 power play. That could lead to multiple goals with the man advantage as the Canucks’ penalty kill has been historically bad this year and has the lowest success rate ever at 67.6%
Murray is also a giant question mark for Toronto and before his injury, he was 12-7 to the Over in his previous 19 games.
The injuries Vancouver is dealing with also favor the Over. It will be without some regular defensemen tonight in Ethan Bear, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Travis Dermott. It’s a very weak blue line that will have its hands full today vs. a Toronto offense that is looking to get going after scoring just four goals over its last two contests.
This is an easy Over 6.5 for me but I’d likely be off the Over 7.0 if the total moves. If bettors are looking at a 7.0, the Toronto team total Over 3.5 is likely a great pivot.
Maple Leafs vs Canucks betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 5-0 in their last five games after scoring two goals or fewer in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Canucks.
Maple Leafs vs Canucks game info
| Location: | Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Saturday, March 4, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Canucks key injuries
