The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to avoid their first back-to-back loss since November 11 as they head to DC to take on a Washington Capitals team that is getting back to full health but just saw their five-game winning streak snapped this week.
The Leafs have begun to shorten up on the moneyline after opening at -125 but this is going to be another tough game for the Leafs, who have to slow down Alex Ovechkin as he chases history tonight.
Check out my free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals best odds
Maple Leafs vs Capitals picks and predictions
It’s tough to hit the point market in a game that features two profitable teams to the Under, especially when they're getting healthier on the blue line while the market is moving to the Under. That gives us some value on the shots on goal market, as they are slightly correlated to the projected goal output.
Over their last four games, the Capitals have been putting a ton of pucks on net, averaging 37.5 shots per game, including a 38-shot performance vs. the Kraken. Seattle allows fewer shots per game than the Leafs do on the season, while the Leafs also give up six more shots per game on the road than at home.
Leading the way for the Caps is Alex Ovechkin, who is currently at 800 career goals and needs one more to tie Gordie Howe for second-most goals all-time in NHL history. He went goalless for the first time in five games on Thursday vs. the Stars but will be in shoot-first mode tonight in prime time.
His Over 3.5 shots on goal is heavily juiced but at 3.5, this has at least a 75% win probability in my opinion.
He’s averaging 5.5 shots on goal over his last 10 games (median of five shots), is 8-2 to the Over in that stretch, had four shots in an earlier meeting this season vs. Toronto, and is chasing the history books. This is worth a multi-unit play to win a unit up to -210.
My best bet: Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 shots on goal (-172 at SportsInteraction)
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Maple Leafs vs Capitals moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs are coming off their first regulation loss in 15 games, thanks to a 3-1 loss at the Garden on Thursday. Toronto played well in another low-scoring affair but ultimately couldn’t solve Igor Shesterkin. Now the Leafs have to find their winning ways again vs. a team that has been getting healthier and looking mighty impressive in December.
Over the last 30 days, the Capitals have welcomed back defensemen John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov as well as forward TJ Oshie. They could also get back 20-minute defender Martin Fehervary today, as he was at practice on Thursday.
Washington, of course, is still missing important pieces such as Tom Wilson and Nick Backstrom, and to a lesser degree, guys like Connor Brown and Carl Hagelin, but since the return of Oshie, the Caps are 8-3-1 with a plus-1.09 goal differential per game, and the league’s fifth-best point percentage.
Washington could also see some help in the crease with a possible return of No.1 goalie Darcy Kuemper, who has been out for six games. The Caps still had no issues collecting points without their top goaltender as they went 5-1 without him and outscored their opponents 24 to 11. I have plenty of trust in Charlie Lingren, who played all six of those games and posted a 2.06 GAA with a .928 SV%
It’s never great to go against the market movement as the Leafs have gone from -125 to -150, but I think this is a worse spot for the Leafs than Thursday’s game vs. the Rangers where they closed as -125 favorites.
The Leafs have been one of the best teams in hockey over the last two months but Washington is playing great, getting healthier, and betting against teams coming off big streaks (15 straight without a loss in regulation as well as Mitch Marner’s snapped point streak) is always a good spot in my opinion.
In their last eight road games dating back to early November, the Leafs were the shortest vs. Detroit at -150 and think there is more than a 5-to-10-point difference between the Caps and Wings.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals Over/Under analysis
If you’ve been betting on Toronto Unders this year you’ve been stuffing your pockets with cash. The Leafs are 10-20-1 O/U on the season, which is one of the best Under marks in the league. This is a team that has no issues slowing games down late, as we saw on Thursday as the Leafs and Rangers both scored in the first period but still managed just three non-empty-net goals.
Since November, the Leafs have allowed just 25 goals in the second and third periods combined across 21 games. If you’re looking for late scoring, Toronto is not your team.
The Capitals have also been profitable to the Under with a 12-19-2 O/U mark on the season. Despite the laundry list of injuries the Caps have had to deal with this season — especially on the blue line — they sit in the top half of the league in GAA and have a 2.38 GAA this month without their No.1 goalie.
Looking at special teams, both clubs have great penalty kills and rank fifth and sixth in that category over the last 30 days while the Leafs’ power play has gone dormant again going 0-for-6 over the last two games. Toronto has failed to score with the man advantage in six of its last 10 games. Bettors also shouldn’t expect many PP opportunities as both teams rank in the Top 8 in penalties taken.
This total is starting to move to the Under after opening at +100 to the Under.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0-1 in the Capitals’ last seven home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Capitals.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals game info
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Saturday, December 17, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, SNP |
Maple Leafs vs Capitals key injuries
