Maple Leafs vs Capitals Picks and Predictions: Buds Keep Buzzing in DC

The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a tough defensive win over Detroit, winning 10-7 with just one touchdown scored and two field goa—

Oh wait.... that wasn't football? It was an NHL hockey game, where all four goalies involved are surely going to be traumatized from an utter inability to get in the way of a small rubber puck?

Well then.

Needless to say, we don't expect that much offense when the Buds visit the Washington Capitals tonight, but NHL betting lines are leaving plenty of value for another high-scoring game — see why our free NHL picks and predictions are taking the bait for this Monday, February 28 matchup.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The line opened with Toronto as a +101 underdog but the spread has swung to see the Leafs anywhere from -125 to -150 (with Washington going from -113 to +125) at the time of writing. The total opened at a modest 6.0, with almost every book still offering that number... heavily shaded to the Over.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals predictions

• Prediction: Maple Leafs moneyline (-125)
• Prediction: Over 6 (-120)
• Best bet: Maple Leafs TT Over 3.5 (+110)

Predictions made on 2/28/2022 at 12:27 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals game info

• Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Monday, February 28, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-Washington, Rogers Sportsnet

Maple Leafs vs Capitals betting preview

Key injuries

Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Out), Travis Dermott D (Day-to-Day), Pierre Engvall LW (Day-to-Day).
Capitals: Justin Schultz D (Day-to-Day), Anthony Mantha RW (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals head-to-head record (2018-2020)

Maple Leafs: 2-2-1, 18 goals for.
Capitals: 3-2-0, 16 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 14-6 in the Capitals' last 20 home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

So, about that last Leafs game.

We saw 17 total goals (ZERO on the power play) on a modest 72 total shots, eight goals in the third period, and this ludicrous scoring see-saw:

-Toronto leads of 6-1 and 7-2 (after 40 minutes) quickly dissipated into a 7-6 advantage as the Red Wings scored four times in the first 5:21 of the third.
-The Leafs went ahead 8-6, then gave up another goal 41 seconds later to make it 8-7.
-Things finally "settled" down, with the Buds tacking on two more to finish in double digits.

Now, the good news is that Toronto's offense continues to be humming. The top line of Mitch Marner (four goals, six points on Saturday), Auston Matthews, and Michael Bunting is absolutely dominating in posting a 69.2% goal percentage and 67.2% shot generation share at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games (per Left Wing Lock), which has powered the Leafs to an NHL-best 4.54 goals per game since the end of January.

The bad news (and it's very bad) is the goaltending has totally fallen off a cliff. After being in the Vezina Trophy conversation early in the year, Jack Campbell is now struggling to even be considered the Leafs' primary goalie, giving up 4+ goals in four of his last six outings, posting a 3.76 GAA and .880 SV% in his last 14 games — with a ghastly -13.79 goals saved above average at 5-on-5 (worst in the league), per Natural Stat Trick.

Petr Mrazek (tonight's expected starter) has not been much better over this span, posting a -5.21 GSAA at 5-on-5 in nine appearances, with 3+ goals in four of his last six starts. Both were horrific against Detroit as the Wings scored seven goals... but only had 2.01 expected goals. Woof.

Thankfully, the Buds might get a respite tonight against a Capitals team that, A) is struggling to score again after showing signs of life and B) is simply awful on home ice.

The Caps are coming off losses to the Rangers and Flyers, scoring just one goal in each game, and have managed just one single goal in three of their last five outings. Washington also returns home after a four-game road swing... but the Capitals have lost five straight at Capital One Arena, getting outscored 19-9 in those contests.

Washington's goaltending has also struggled mightily, as tonight's starter Ilya Samsonov has had a sub-.910 SV% in 13 of his last 17 outings — with a 3.23 GAA over that span — and since January 1, he has a 5-on-5 save percentage of .891%, with a 3.58 GAA and -2.26 GSAA at home.

The Caps have also not been playing great 5-on-5 hockey overall during the last month, sitting 24th in Corsi For Percentage, 27th in expected goals for per 60 minutes, and 19th in scoring chances for per 60. By comparison, the Leafs are fifth, 12th, and fifth in those categories over that same span.

Toronto is the better team, playing better hockey right now, and its glaring weakness is something the Capitals are also struggling with. We'll side with the Buds tonight.

Prediction: Maple Leafs moneyline (-125)

Over/Under analysis

If you weren't able to discern it from our above section... the goaltending for both teams is very, very bad right now.

The Caps have gone Under in four of their last five games, but three of those contests included Washington scoring just one goal (unlikely tonight against the Leafs' shaky 'tenders) with the other Under being the Caps holding an opponent to one goal (more unlikely against Toronto's buzzsaw offense).

In the last 10 Caps games where both teams scored at least two goals, the Over has cashed in nine of them.

For Toronto, the Over is 10-3-1 in its last 14 games overall, has cashed in 21 of its last 30, and hit in 11 of the team's last 16 games against teams with winning records.

The Maple Leafs could easily cash this total themselves, but adding in that the Capitals will squeeze a few by Mrazek only furthers our love of the Over tonight.

We're hammering this at the current number of 6 and would have no problem going Over a 6.5 total either. 

Prediction: Over 6 (-120)

Best bet

We'd have no problem doubling down on the full-game Over for our best bet but instead, we're going to look towards the Leafs specifically in what we think is incredible value in their team total market.

In addition to being the significantly better 5-on-5 team, having arguably the hottest line in the league in Matthews/Marner/Bunting, and facing a struggling goaltender in Samsonov, the Buds will also have a massive edge with their power play going against a struggling Washington penalty kill unit.

The Caps are 24th in the league in penalty kill percentage (75%) over the last month and have gone shorthanded at the seventh-most frequency during that span. That is really not a good recipe against a Toronto power play that connects at a league-best 30% clip for the season,

The Leafs' man-advantage unit has actually struggled recently, however, failing to convert in five straight games (0-for-8), but it hasn't been based on a lack of chances: Toronto is still eighth in CF/60, 11th in HDCF/60, and 15th in xGF/60 on the power play during this stretch, but just haven't been able to finish some quality chances.

There's too much talent on this unit to continue going scoreless, however, so we're willing to bet the Buds get the power play back on track tonight, in addition to pouring it on at even strength, and go over their team total — at plus money.

Pick: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (+110)

Pages related to this topic