The Toronto Maple Leafs return from a mediocre West Coast road trip with some injuries, and they need to take on arguably the NHL's second-best team in the New Jersey Devils, who are 18-4-4 since January 1.
The Leafs lost Ryan O’Reilly (finger) to injury, while captain John Tavares will also miss the game. With Timo Meier making his home debut after one game with his new line, will it be the new addition and the sniper's linemates finding the scoresheet on Tuesday?
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Devils.
Maple Leafs vs Devils best odds
Maple Leafs vs Devils picks and predictions
Although Timo Meier will be making his home debut for the New Jersey Devils, his linemate Jesper Bratt holds the best value on Tuesday to find the scoresheet.
Bratt is playing on a line with Jack Hughes (1.5-point total) and Meier (Over 0.5 points -233), which might be one of the best spots in hockey to put up points. Neither team takes many penalties, so this “second” line in New Jersey should get plenty of ice time against a Toronto Maple Leafs squad down two top centers, and their most physical rearguard in Luke Schenn.
Ryan O’Reilly and John Tavares being out also makes life easier for this newly-minted line that registered a goal and 13 shots over 13 minutes on Sunday against the Arizona Coyotes.
Bratt failed to find the scoresheet in that game, but he was riding a four-game point streak before the win and had collected at least one point in 19 of his previous 26 contests. He was a point-per-game player before Meier joined his line, and Bratt is also on the first power-play unit.
The 24-year-old winger should get a slight increase in ice time due to the likely lack of penalties. He'll face either Ilya Samsonov (.899 save percentage over 12 road games) or Matt Murray, who gave up four goals on 24 shots during his first action in over a month Saturday against the Canucks.
Bratt at -120 to -135 to record a point is a deal, especially when some other books are as short as -145. This price should get shorter the more Bratt, Hughes, and Meier play together.
My best bet: Jesper Bratt Over 0.5 points (-132 at Sports Interaction)
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Maple Leafs vs Devils moneyline analysis
I circled this game on the calendar, as this will be the Leafs’ first contest on the East Coast after a four-game West Coast trip, making it a great spot to fade them.
It's also the last contest of a five-game road trip for the Leafs. It’s a bad schedule spot for the Buds. Combine that with their recent three-game stretch of five total goals and the injuries, and it’s time to get on the Devils. It seems the market is feeling the same way.
New Jersey opened as long as -120 on the moneyline, but they've moved to -135 as of Tuesday morning. The losses Toronto is dealing with in O’Reilly and Tavares have made the Leafs much weaker at center, and the market is adjusting accordingly. The Leafs will be playing Sam Lafferty as the second-line center with William Nylander and Calle Jarnkrok.
#Leafs forward lines at practice Mar. 6/23
— David Alter (@dalter) March 6, 2023
Kerfoot-Matthews-Marner
Jarnkrok-Lafferty-Nylander
AstonReese-Kampf-Acciari
Bunting-Holmberg-Steeves
Extra: Tavares
Absent: O’Reilly
McCabe-Brodie
Giordano-Holl
Rielly-Liljegren
Extra: Gustafsson-Timmins
Absent: Schenn@BodogCA… https://t.co/VNOgebaYO1
Toronto's offense has scored two or fewer goals in four of its last five games, and the club is struggling to get Auston Matthews going.
The reigning Hart Trophy winner has notched just eight points over his last nine games since returning from a five-game absence, and there are whispers of Matthews not being fully healthy. He’s struggling to get separation, just like Matthews did at times in 2021-22. He also exited briefly during the team's last game after blocking a shot. Maybe the MVP shouldn’t be leading NHL forwards in blocked shots, especially when he doesn’t play on the penalty kill.
Toronto's recent lack of offensive production comes at a bad time ahead of Tuesday's matchup. Meier is in the lineup for a New Jersey squad that sports one of the NHL's best top-nine forwards.
The Over has hit during six straight Devils games, largely because of their offense. New Jersey has scored 29 goals over that stretch, including contests against the Colorado Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, and Las Vegas Golden Knights.
The Devils are also a better team statistically than the Leafs at 5-on-5. New Jersey has logged a better Goal%, xGoal%, Corsi/Fenwick, and goal differential while also posting a similar shooting percentage. Only four other teams allow fewer high-danger shots than the Devils. Vitek Vanecek has been struggling recently in net for the home side, but the Devils could start Akira Schmid (6-5 SU, 2.00 GAA, .926 SV%) and I’d still be happy to ride with the favorites at -135.
With poor offensive form, injuries, and playing on the East Coast following a week on the West Coast, this is a great spot to fade the Leafs, despite them usually playing up to the competition. If O’Reilly, Tavares, and Schenn were in, I’d love the Devils at -120, and think the absence of the three is worth a little more than 15 points.
Maple Leafs vs Devils Over/Under analysis
I loved the Over on 6.5 to hit during the Leafs-Canucks game on Saturday, and I was sorely disappointed in the team’s offensive effort in a one-goal outing against arguably the NHL's worst club. I’m a little more apprehensive about the full-game Over hitting on 6.5 Tuesday. The market hasn’t moved much either, as bettors might be feeling the same.
The Devils have been slightly profitable to the Over at 30-28-4. But they're getting an average of just 5.94 total goals per game on home ice, which ranks in the bottom half of the league in total goals per game at home. Only the Bruins allow fewer shots per game at home than New Jersey.
The Leafs will also be dressing two new bodies in the lineup in Pontus Holmberg and Alex Steeves. The AHL callups will form two-thirds of the fourth line with Michael Bunting. They’ll skate hard during their first game since the promotion, which should make the bottom six a little more difficult to play against.
Toronto will also suit up just six defensemen on Tuesday after rolling with seven defenders over the team's last two games. That should help with communication and comfort, as the pairings won’t rotate.
New Jersey has been the NHL's best road team, but the Devils' home games have been much tighter. They're potting 0.95 fewer goals at home than on the road, and their home penalty kill ranks No. 4 while not giving up a goal in seven straight games. New Jersey scores 0.7 fewer goals per game at home than on the road, while the Leafs’ offense is also weaker on the road.
With both teams also taking penalties at a bottom-10 rate, this game will be played heavily at 5-on-5, which also favors the Under. I’d play this Under at 6.5 in any goalie matchup at -105 or better.
Maple Leafs vs Devils betting trend to know
The Devils are 8-1 in their last nine home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Devils.
Maple Leafs vs Devils game info
| Location: | Presidential Center, Newark, NJ |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 7, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN4, MSGSN |
Maple Leafs vs Devils key injuries
