The Toronto Maple Leafs hit the road for a three-game road trip with their first stop tonight to face a Calgary Flames team that blanked Vegas 6-0 last night. The visitors are riding a six-game winning streak and breathed a sigh of relief after Auston Matthews returned to practice yesterday after a scary collision in their 4-3 OT win over the Canes.
Can the Flames bring the same intensity tonight after a big divisional win? Can the Leafs continue to get elite production from their top line? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Flames on Thursday, February 10.
Maple Leafs vs Flames odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Toronto opened as a slight -120 road favorite but has since been bet to -140 with a total of 6. The Leafs closed as -195 ML favorites at home in a November meeting that Toronto won 2-1 in overtime. That total closed at 5.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Flames predictions
Predictions made on 2/10/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2021-22 NHL season, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Bet on any team to win a game involving a Canadian team at Betway — if they jump out to a 2-0 lead, you get paid out as a winner, regardless of the final result! Claim Now
Maple Leafs vs Flames game info
• Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
• Date: Thursday, February 10, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SN West, TSN
Maple Leafs vs Flames betting preview
Key injuries
Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews F (Probable), Jake Muzzin D (Doubtful), Wayne Simmonds F (Out).
Flames: Tyler Pitlick F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Flames head-to-head record (since 2021)
Maple Leafs: 7-3 SU, 27 goals for.
Flames: 3-7 SU, 22 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 9-1-1 in Maple Leafs’ last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Flames.
Maple Leafs vs Flames picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline/Puck line analysis
It may surprise some but the Leafs are riding a six-game winning streak and are on pace for an incredible 120 points. They have the fourth-best point percentage in hockey and the second-best since November 1. The wins aren’t all pretty but they don’t ask how, they ask how many.
Leading the way for the Leafs is the stellar play of the top line of Bunting-Matthews-Marner. Mitch Marner has scored in eight straight games and has 10 total goals over that stretch. Auston Matthews is two goals off the league lead and has plenty of games in hand while Michael Bunting is the glue guy and has four goals over his last four games. This line has been unstoppable of late and will be tough for Calgary to contain on the backend of a back-to-back, especially if backup Dan Vladar gets the call. Matthews looks good to go after a scary collision in his last game.
Matthews said he was a bit shaken up. Says he’s good to play tomorrow.
— David Alter (@dalter) February 9, 2022
With Jacob Markstrom getting the shutout last night, the Flames will likely turn to Dan Vladar in net tonight, especially with a schedule that has five games in eight days. Vladar was in net for the last meeting and made 35 saves in the 2-1 overtime loss, but the young goaltender has struggled since December and is 2-3 SU with a 3.86 GAA over that stretch. The Leafs have the second-best offense since the calendar hit 2021 at 4.38 goals per game and could be in a great spot to score four-plus goals with the Flames coming off that big divisional win last night.
The Flames have been stout on the penalty kill of late and are a perfect 9 for 9 on the PK over their last four games, but the Leafs have been getting plenty of production at 5-on-5. Statistically, these two teams have similar even-strength metrics in xgoal% and Fenwick/Corsi but the Leafs are playing some of their best 5-on-5 hockey right now offensively.
Calgary is just 8-8 SU at home this season and has relied heavily on the play of Markstrom to dominate, as the goalie has 13 starts with zero or one goal allowed. His eight shutouts are twice as many as the next-best goalie.
The price is likely the best selling point for the Leafs here. They closed at -195 at home in the last meeting, which was also the back-end of a back-to-back for the Flames. At -140, this line is likely 10 to 15 points short and we could see this ML closing around -155. As a comparison, the Leafs closed at -170 at the Islanders, who were not on a back-to-back, in late January.
Even with Jack Campbell not at his sharpest, the Leafs’ offense is on fire right now and likely facing a struggling Vadar in a non-conference game, we love the home side on the ML. But, if it moves closer to -150, we’d likely pivot to the Leafs in regulation. The Leafs have won seven of the last 10 meetings dating back to last season, including all four in Calgary.
Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-140)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs are almost on auto-Over bet these days. They’re 5-0 to the Over in their last five and 9-2-1 O/U in their last 12 games dating back to January 5. Since the beginning of the calendar year, Toronto is averaging 7.38 total goals per game, which is the fourth-highest mark over that stretch. The power play is clicking at a 30% rate since January and the inconsistent goaltending has also aided in the Over spree.
Jake Muzzin is still out, which means the Leafs will still feature a smaller lineup on the blue line tonight. Wayne Simmonds is also on maternity leave, so the bottom line won’t feature as much muscle as usual.
The last meeting saw just two goals scored in regulation. 65 shots were recorded and Vladar and Campbell were playing their best hockey at that time. Vladar is 4-1 to the Over in his last five starts while Campbell is 6-0 to the Over in his last six starts and has allowed at least three goals in six of his last seven starts.
The Calgary offense was humming last night versus Robin Lehner and the Knights. They scored five straight even-strength goals to start things off and capped it off with a power-play marker late in the third. The Flames lead the league in xgoal%, Fenwick and Corsi% at 5-on-5.
With two strong 5-on-5 offenses and hopefully a goalie matchup that will feature Vladar, we’re not hesitating and hitting the Over here. The Leafs’ top line has been on absolute fire and the Calgary offense is coming off a six-goal performance last night. Toronto has seen a closing total of 6.5 in three straight games and this 6 might inch its way upwards as puck drop nears.
Prediction: Over 6 (-110)
Best bet
This is the best price we’ve seen on a Toronto total in over five games. The total versus the Carolina Hurricanes, who have the best GAA in the league, closed at 6.5 and still hit the Over. With Toronto playing anything but stout defense and getting average goaltending over the last 30 days, both teams should be able to flirt with three goals.
Of Course, Markstrom could get the B2B start, but he gave up five goals the last time he tried that, so we won’t worry too much with the goalie confirmations here. When the Leafs get on an Over streak, it’s best to ride it out, and with a great number of 6 and a solid -110 price tag, we’re banking on at least six goals Thursday night.
Pick: Over 6 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Maple Leafs vs. Flames picks, you could win $22.49 on a $10 bet?
Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
