Maple Leafs vs Islanders Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

Toronto's power play doesn't score as much as it should, but when it does, Mitch Marner is often involved.

Mike DiStefano - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Mike DiStefano • Betting Analyst
Jan 2, 2025 • 11:23 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Mitch Marner Toronto Maple Leafs NHL
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There are 12 games in the NHL, including an Eastern Conference clash between the New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs at UBS Arena.

New York’s penalty kill is the worst in the league, and my Maple Leafs vs. Islanders predictions look to Mitch Marner to tally a power-play point.

Find out more in my free NHL picks for January 2.

Maple Leafs vs Islanders prediction

My Leafs pick
Mitch Marner Over 0.5 power play points (+240 at Sports Interaction)

My Leafs analysis
The New York Islanders' penalty kill is struggling. Its current kill rate is just 63.9%, which drops to 55.5% on home ice.

The unit also seems to be getting worse as the season goes on. It operated at just 53% throughout December after allowing a power-play goal in seven of its last eight games. 

The Toronto Maple Leafs have scored a goal on the man advantage in six of their last nine games, including Tuesday afternoon against this lowly Isles PK. Mitch Marner factored into that goal and has cashed on his power-play points prop in five of his last nine games. 

The Leafs skilled winger leads the Leafs with 20 points on the power play. Considering Toronto's PP has only lit the lamp 23 times, that’s quite remarkable. 

If the Leafs get a few opportunities tonight, Marner has a good chance of cashing this prop once again. 

Maple Leafs vs Islanders same-game parlay (SGP)

Mitch Marner 2+ shots

Mitch Marner anytime goalscorer

John Tavares anytime goalscorer

Auston Matthews is out once again, and Marner becomes a much more trigger-happy player without 34 in the lineup. Marner has scored 10 of his 13 goals when AM34 sits out. 

He's averaging 2.48 shots per game this season but has had two or more shots in 10 of the 14 games with Matthews out of the lineup, including four of his last five games.

John Tavares is currently riding an eight-game point streak and has scored in five of the last eight meetings against New York. I expect him to score tonight in front of a raucous Islander crowd. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Maple Leafs vs Islanders odds

Maple Leafs vs Islanders live odds

Maple Leafs vs Islanders opening odds

  • Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+195) | New York +1.5 (-263)
  • Moneyline: Toronto -120 | New York +100
  • Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction

Maple Leafs vs Islanders trend

The Islanders are 7-14 on the moneyline on home ice this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Islanders.

How to watch Maple Leafs vs Islanders

Location: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY
Date: Thursday, 1-2-2025
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: HULU

Maple Leafs vs Islanders latest injuries

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Mike DiStefano - Covers
Betting Analyst

Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN's flagship radio/tv show "OverDrive" as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.

A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.

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