The Toronto Maple Leafs hit the road to take on the Winnipeg Jets tonight but despite their mediocre play, they come into this road match as a heavy favorite yet again with another high total.
The Jets are a physical team, making them a tough matchup for the Buds and with an absence on the top line of Winnipeg, the second line could be doing the heavy lifting offensively for the home side.
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Jets.
Maple Leafs vs Jets best odds
Maple Leafs vs Jets picks and predictions
With some line-juggling on both sides, there are some mispriced goal markets out there. Mason Appleton will play on the first line for the Jets with Nikolaj Ehlers out and is +425 to score.
Cole Perfetti has been excelling on the Jets’ second line and is +500 to score. And finally, Nick Robertson — who scored twice in the Leafs' last game — can be found at +350 but isn’t widely available for some reason.
Considering I’m looking at this as another low-scoring affair despite a total that is teetering on 7, I’m not going heavy on those goal markets and instead getting a great price on a player I expect to just collect a point.
Pierre-Luc Dubois and his second line have been doing the heavy lifting for the Jets since Ehlers hit the infirmary. He’s recorded a point in two straight and three of his four games. He gets PP1 time which is key vs. this Leafs team that's thin and small on the blue line with Jake Muzzin’s injury.
Dubois is also a big center who is a mismatch for the majority of the Leafs trying to defend him. He also has one of the better point prices of the Winnipeg players which is great for bettors.
I love betting on centers’ point totals as they touch the puck more than anyone and in a game where Winnipeg will want to be physical, Dubois is going to find the scoresheet. His linemate, Cole Perfetti to score at +500 is also worth a look.
My best bet: Pierre-Luc Dubois Over 0.5 points (-130)
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Maple Leafs vs Jets moneyline analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs kick off a five-game, nine-day road trip tonight in Winnipeg. The crowded schedule might be tough for most teams, but getting out of Toronto might be the best thing for the Maple Leafs after a five-game start that has produced mediocre results.
The noise could have been even worse if the Leafs had lost to the Stars on Wednesday as -180 favorites. Toronto blew a late 2-1 lead and needed call-up rookie Nick Robertson to bail them out as the winger scored the Leafs’ final two goals including the OT winner.
The Leafs have looked nothing but average but are still being priced as a Top-3 team in hockey. They’re thin on the blue line with Jake Muzzin hitting the IR, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have combined for two goals, the power play looks uncreative at 4-for-22, and it seems like only the second line of Nylander-Tavares and now Robertson is leading them offensively.
The Leafs opened as -130 road favorites and moved as short as -170 vs. the 2-2 Winnipeg Jets who have wins over the Avalanche and Rangers. In comparison, the Leafs have wins over the Senators, Capitals, and Stars — all by one goal. Toronto has also been trailing after 20 minutes in four straight games.
The Jets also play a much more physical style of hockey than Toronto and even though they'll be without top-line winger Nikolaj Ehlers, this is not a great matchup for Toronto.
Winnipeg has the edge in net with Connor Hellebuyck, its top line is producing better, the Pierre-Luc Dubois line could be a bad matchup for the Tavares line while the special teams are a wash. Where the price is moving to, it’s looking like the value is with the Jets, and would be a play for me if I can get it at +135 or better.
Maple Leafs vs Jets Over/Under analysis
If you were expecting some Toronto shootouts to open the year, you’ve been sadly disappointed. Toronto is 4-0 to the Under out of the gates and not much is giving me hope for Over as long as books are teetering between 6.5 and 7 with the total.
Because of the issues on the blue line and with new goaltending, the Leafs have been pretty protective of their own end despite some careless giveaways. Only the Devils are allowing fewer shots on net than Toronto at 24.8 per game. Ilya Samsonov has a 1.96 GAA and has played above expectations with a +0.785 goals saved above expected/60.
The offense is still in the Top 10 in expected goals but Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are ice cold. Playing on the road will be tougher for Sheldon Keefe to get good matchups for his top-heavy club without the last change as well.
Winnipeg has only played three games and one was vs. the Avs in Colorado and their most recent game, a 5-2 road loss to the Knights, featured their backup goalie.
This game opened at 6.5 but quickly hit 7 at some books and should close therer Saturday night. This is another easy Under for me at 7 up to -125. Both teams sit in the Top-12 in expected goals against over a small sample size while the loss of Ehlers is also a blow to the potential for a shootout.
Maple Leafs vs Jets betting trend to know
Toronto is 0-4-1 O/U to open the season. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Jets.
Maple Leafs vs Jets game info
| Location: | Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, MB |
| Date: | Saturday, October 22, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
Maple Leafs vs Jets key injuries
