The books are starting to shorten the odds of the Toronto Maple Leafs after some poor play to start the season and I don’t blame them. They are coming off another -200-plus loss vs. the Sharks on Thursday, but NHL odds have moved them to -145 road favorites tonight vs. the Los Angeles Kings in what is their second of three games of this California road trip.
With Sheldon Keefe juggling the lines yet again, the books are slow to adjust their NHL player props market prices, which can benefit bettors tonight.
Find out in my free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Kings.
Maple Leafs vs Kings best odds
Maple Leafs vs Kings picks and predictions
After another loss for the Leafs, we're getting more line juggling from bench boss Sheldon Keefe. He has moved Michael Bunting back to the top line, shipped Alex Kerfoot to the second line, and put Nick Robertson on a third line that also confusingly consists of Wayne Simmonds.
#Leafs forward lines at practice Oct. 28/22
— David Alter (@dalter) October 28, 2022
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Robertson-Jarnkrok-Simmonds
Engvall-Kampf-AubeKubel
Extra: Aston-Reese, Malgin@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR
All this movement is giving bettors some edges in the point market, mostly Bunting Over 0.5 points at plus money as he is being priced as a third-line winger. However, with a lot on the line tonight, I’m getting my money on Auston Matthews in a game the Leafs desperately need to win.
Toronto doesn't want to lose tonight and face a California sweep tomorrow in Anaheim. Matthews will have to do the heavy lifting yet again for this offense.
The reigning Rocket winner finally had a traditional Matthews goal on Thursday which was just his second goal of the season and the first real goal-scorer goal he's tucked. He finished with seven shots and I’d expect him to keep shooting tonight after getting the proverbial monkey off his back in San Jose.
On the season, Matthews is averaging 9.125 shot attempts (fourth in the league) and 5.00 shots on goal (fourth in the league). Most of that is coming at even strength and the forward has expressed his frustrations with the power play which could result in a better effort tonight and possibly more shots with the man advantage.
The Kings take penalties at a Top 5 rate and the Buds could see plenty of opportunities with the man advantage, especially with everyone likely skating hard after the line changes and losses.
Ultimately, I’m betting on a big player in a very important game for the Leafs here and expect him to lead the offense yet again — and that means shots on net. Bunting and Mitch Marner will keep trying to get 34 going.
My best bet: Auston Matthews Over 4.5 shots (+100)
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Maple Leafs vs Kings moneyline analysis
The Leafs have picked up three out of a possible six points so far on their five-game road trip that concludes tomorrow in Anaheim, but the results have been underwhelming. Toronto has given up the first goal in six straight games and hasn’t played with the lead for much of the 2022-23 season.
The offense is nowhere near where it was a season ago at 2.75 goals per game (27th) compared to 3.71 (third) last season. The bottom-six forwards are invisible, the Matthews line has still not found its rhythm, Sheldon Keefe continues to juggle lines looking for chemistry, and this team lacks talent on defense.
Things are so bad, Wayne Simmonds will be on the third line tonight while rookie D-man Filip Kral will make his NHL debut. Nothing Keefe has done to date has sparked this team that continuously plays flat, uninspired hockey.
The only thing that should be enticing for the Leafs’ moneyline is the price at -145. That’s 20 points different than their game in Winnipeg that began the road trip and closed at -165. There is not a 20-point gap between the Jets and Kings in my opinion.
Los Angeles could be overvalued here slightly considering it will likely get a 100% effort from a struggling Toronto team. The Kings’ minus-eight goal differential on the season is the fifth-worst mark in hockey. They’re giving up high-quality chances and sit 27th in expected goals against.
L.A. isn’t getting anything from Jonathan Quick either as the veteran goalie carries a .878 save percentage and a 3.81 GAA into tonight. The Leafs have the edge in net with Ilya Samsonov confirmed. He was dealing with a slight illness but looks to improve on his 4-1 record with solid peripherals — 2.01 GAA and a .931 save percentage. He currently ranks eighth in the league goals saved above expected/60.
I’m not hitting the Leafs on the moneyline but do think this line should be as short as -165.
Maple Leafs vs Kings Over/Under analysis
Bettors who have blindly hit the Buds on the Under are 7-1 to begin the season, and with the struggles with the offense and getting Smasonov back in net, I’m liking the Under 6.5 at even money tonight.
Keefe’s line juggling is in direct response to a team that is not scoring at the rate it should be. The Leafs have scored four or more goals just once this season and that was a Michael Bunting empty-netter.
Toronto doesn’t even sit in the Top 10 in expected goals as Keefe’s squad is struggling to generate quality chances — and with a bottom-six that has been invisible facing two of the best checking centers in hockey — I’m betting against the Leafs breaking out tonight and playing another tight game.
Samsonov has been excellent so far with the Leafs and he’s the reason the team has four wins this year. He’s finished each of his five starts with a save percentage above .900 and has allowed more than two goals just once. Facing an L.A. side that gave up six goals in its last game, Toronto and Samsonov will likely see a much better defensive team Saturday afternoon on the West Coast.
The Kings have been one of the best Over teams in hockey at 7-1 O/U, but that's priced in here and Toronto has done a great job of slowing the pace of the game down and eliminating shots on goal as it currently ranks fourth in shots allowed per game at 27.4.
The Kings’ O/U record is likely driving this total to where it currently is but nothing out of the Leafs’ play is telling me to pay 25 points and hit an Over 6.5.
Maple Leafs vs Kings betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last nine overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Kings.
Maple Leafs vs Kings game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, October 29, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Kings key injuries
