The Toronto Maple Leafs can win their first playoff series in nearly 20 years, but the Tampa Bay Lightning will look to keep their postseason alive when the teams face off at Amalie Arena for Game 6 tonight.
The Lightning enter tonight’s contest with three straight victories in potential elimination games against the Maple Leafs dating back to Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup quarterfinals, so the hosts will likely feel good about their chances of forcing a winner-take-all Game 7.
Can Toronto finally exorcise its playoff demons and eliminate Tampa Bay? Keep reading and find out in our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL picks and predictions for Saturday, April 29.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning series odds
| Team | To win | Win in 6 | Win in 7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | -425 | -115 | +225 |
| Lightning | +330 | N/A | +330 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 29.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 predictions
The Lightning have arguably deserved a better fate so far this postseason, but finally picked up a 4-2 win in Game 5 to earn their first victory since the series opener.
Michael Eyssimont had a goal and assist in his return to the lineup after missing the last three games with an injury, Nicholas Paul came up clutch again vs the Maple Leafs with the game-winner, and Andrei Vasilevskiy returned to form in net with 28 saves.
Vasilevskiy could very well be the X-factor for Tampa Bay throughout the rest of this series, and we got a taste of that last game, as he made a few key stops to keep his team ahead. His .933 SV% in Game 5 was by far his best performance of the postseason to this point, as he posted an .865 SV% or worse in each of the three contests prior.
Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have historically struggled in potential series-clinching games, particularly on the offensive side of the puck. Toronto has scored just 12 goals in its last six playoff contests with a chance to clinch a series — an average of just 2.00 GPG.
Given Vasilevskiy’s clutch factor and the Maple Leafs’ propensity to struggle in big moments, I foresee Tampa Bay holding Toronto to two or three goals.
My best bet: Lightning race to 3 Goals (-122 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs opened at -107 on the road, while the Lightning opened at -105 at home, making Game 6 a pick ‘em. Tampa Bay should be high on confidence heading home after a big win in Game 5, but the road team has won each meeting of the series so far which favors Toronto. It’ll likely be close, but I give the hosts a slight edge tonight.
The Lightning have taken control of the series over the last three contests, owning about 60% of the shot attempts and expected goals at five-on-five since Game 3. Tampa Bay’s struggles have mainly come in the goaltending department, but a rebound performance from Vasilevskiy in Game 5 inspires some confidence heading into Game 6.
The Leafs, meanwhile, have now lost 11 straight potential series-clinching games dating back to 2013. A record like that has to be broken at some point, but it probably won’t happen unless we see a stronger performance from Toronto tonight.
The Maple Leafs have had a different feel this postseason with a couple of gritty comeback wins, but the Lightning have historically shown an ability to elevate in crucial games like these, which is why I’m backing Tampa Bay in Game 6.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 Over/Under analysis
The total for Game 6 opened at 6.5 goals and remained steady there at most books through Friday night. Both teams have put plenty of pucks in the net during this series, so the trends suggest that the Over is the play tonight.
Toronto and Tampa Bay have combined for at least seven goals in seven of their last 10 meetings, with the Over also cashing in seven of those contests. The first four contests of this series featured at least seven goals, while Game 5 came close with four.
The Leafs have cashed the Over in six of their last nine outings, while the Over is 8-2 in the Lightning’s last 10 contests.
With both offenses clicking and both goaltenders struggling, chances are we see seven or more total goals tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning betting trend to know
The Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Tampa Bay. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, April 29, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 injuries
