Maple Leafs vs Oilers Picks and Predictions: Toronto's Red-Hot Offense Stays Sizzling

The Toronto Maple Leafs will begin their (now) two-game road trip in Edmonton tonight as they take on an Oilers team that has dropped five straight games. The Leafs, who are NHL betting road favorites, could also get some help with the additions of Ilya Mikeyhev and Travis Dermott likely suiting up.

Can Edmonton figure out its scoring woes against a Toronto team that has allowed at least four goals in five straight games? Can Sheldon Keefe and the Leafs get back to their Under success after two weeks of high-scoring games?

Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Oilers on Tuesday, December 14.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Toronto opened at -125 on the moneyline and has moved slightly to -130. The total opened at 6 (-125 to the Over) at some books but all books have hit 6.5 with the price starting to move towards the Over.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers predictions

• Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (+115)
• Prediction: Over 6.5 (+100)
• Best bet: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (+115)

Predictions made on 12/14/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers game info

• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Tuesday, December 14, 2021
• Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SNW, TSN4

Maple Leafs vs Oilers betting preview

Injuries

Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner F (Out), Travis Dermott D (Probable), Jason Spezza (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Ilya Mikheyev F (Probable), Nick Ritchie F (Out).
Oilers: Zach Hyman F (Questionable), Ducan Keith F (Questionable), Mike Smith G (Out), Dylan Holloway F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers head-to-head record (since 2021)

Maple Leafs: 6-3 SU, 31 goals for.
Oilers: 3-6 SU, 19 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-0 in Maple Leafs’ last seven games overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Oilers.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline/Puck line analysis

Since dominating the Avalanche 8-3 back on December 1, the Leafs are 2-3 SU with those two wins coming against the Blackhawks and Blue Jackets in a pair of 5-4 victories. From the head coach to the general manager, nobody has been happy with Leafs’ results of late but the Buds are getting a little healthier and face an Edmonton team that has been outscored 19-9 over its last five games — with zero points to show for it.

The Oilers’ reliance on secondary scoring is glaring as Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid have a combined four goals (nine points) over the losing streak. The goaltending duo of Mikko Koskinen and Stuart Skinner is starting to regress after playing so well in the absence of Mike Smith at the beginning of the season. The Edmonton penalty kill has been atrocious of late as well, as it has allowed six goals in the last four games. That is bad news for Edmonton as the Leafs are riding the hottest power play in hockey.

Toronto has scored two power-play goals in each of its last five games — a 10-for-15 success rate. The Leafs have a big advantage in special teams and they could also get some help with their even-strength play Tuesday night.

Defenseman Travis Dermott skated in full on Monday and should draw in tonight. His addition is massive to a leaky Toronto blueline that can now get back to normal, even with Rasmus Sandin on the shelf. Dermott will jump on the third pairing with Timothy Liljegren, which should help Keefe’s backend that had been playing terribly with Kristians Rubins in.

Additionally, forward Iya Mikheyev is probable to return to the lineup and make his season debut. Nick Ritchie is out, so Mikheyev’s addition would be welcomed news. He can play on the wing on any line and could help settle down this Toronto team that has given up goals in bunches of late.

Offensively, the Leafs are in a different gear compared to the cold sticks of Edmonton. Auston Matthews has 11 goals over his last 11 games, William Nylander has 14 points over his last nine, while captain John Tavares has 15 points over his previous nine contests. 

Jack Campbell will get the start tonight and will look to rebound after a much-needed rest having last played last Thursday. He isn’t nearly as hot as he was in November, but Campbell hasn’t seen the team’s best performances of late. Over the last month, he’s still 6-3 SU with a 2.22 goals-against average and a .930 save percentage. He’s another slight advantage tonight against either Koskinen or Stuart, who owns a 3.23 GAA over the last 30 days.

Getting the backend repaired is a big deal for the Buds and Campbell getting some rest should be a great thing for the No. 1 netminder. The Leafs are playing the Oilers at the perfect time as their five-game losing streak has created a lot of noise, with as four of those five losses coming on home ice. The Leafs will hopefully put in a bigger effort tonight with their game versus Calgary on Thursday postponed, thus not having to play again until Saturday.

These two clubs saw each other nine times last season with the Leafs winning six, including taking nine of a possible 10 points in Edmonton.

We’re taking the extra money on the Leafs in regulation as facing McDavid and Draisaitl in overtime is a disadvantage even with Matthews, Nylander, and Tavares.

Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (+115)

Over/Under analysis

The Leafs are riding a seven-game Over streak that has seen an average total score of 8.43. Turnovers have been abundant, as Keefe having to lean on Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl defensively has been a catalyst for 5-on-5 goals against and the power play has been unstoppable.

There is potential for the Leafs to get back to their early-season ways where they were the best Under team in hockey, but that would require Campbell to pick it up, the 5-on-5 play to become more responsible and the Oilers to continue to struggle. Getting all of these variables to hit is asking a lot and we think the Leafs’ offense continues to stay sizzling.

Edmonton has allowed three or more goals in eight of its last nine games as goaltending has been an issue. Koskinen has dropped three straight and has allowed 12 goals over that stretch while Skinner is 0-3 SU with 11 goals against in his last three. Despite the Leafs’ inconsistent play, they’ve still managed 4.76 goals per game over the last three weeks.

Toronto allowed four even-strength goals to the worst even-strength team in hockey (Chicago) on Saturday. It sits in the Bottom 5 in expected 5-on-5 goals on the season but gets to see an Edmonton team that has given up the sixth-most even-strength goals on the year. This game has the potential to see plenty of action, both at 5-on-5 and on the power play. 

This is a great matchup for the Oilers to get out of their slump. They might not have former Leaf Zach Hyman in the lineup but with Toronto leading the league in turnovers per game, dealing with lineup adjustments, and getting average goaltending of late, it would be a major surprise if Edmonton was held to under three goals as each of Toronto’s last six opponents have netted at least three goals. 

We’re riding this Over train until the Leafs show us they can play defensively responsible again. This total is trending upwards.

Prediction: Over 6.5 (+100)

Best bet

With all the worry in Leaf land about the recent results, the offense has not been an issue. The power play has 10 goals in its last five games as only the Avalanche have been scoring more goals per game over the last three weeks than Toronto. 

The Leafs’ team total was 4.5 just one game ago and now we can get 3.5 at +115 to the Over. With the defensive lapses from the visitors, the Oilers should be able to get a couple of goals which means the Leafs will likely have a possibility of an empty-net goal even in a 3-1 or 3-2 game. 

Toronto is facing some league-average goaltending and a team that has allowed at least three goals in eight of its last nine. The Matthews-vs.-McDavid hype should also bring out the best in two of the league’s brightest stars. Hitting the Toronto team total might be safer than taking the visitors in regulation.  

Pick: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (+115)

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