The Toronto Maple Leafs took it on the chin Tuesday in a 7-2 road loss to the Islanders and now continue their five-game road trip as a slight underdog vs. the Florida Panthers, who have won seven of their last 10 and are in a dogfight for a playoff spot in the East.
Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe has constantly been juggling his lineup, but after calling out William Nylander prior to the last game and rewarding him with a slight promotion to the second line, should we be looking for a motivational game from the winger in a very generous stat-keeping arena?
Find out my best NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers on Thursday, March 23.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers best odds
Maple Leafs vs Panthers picks and predictions
Following the Leafs’ 7-2 loss on Tuesday, William Nylander was not thrilled about his recent lack of offensive production which forced his coach to call him out in the media and demote him to the third line.
"I haven't been happy about my game, I've been pissed off about it," Nylander told the media Tuesday night. "It happens and you just have to dig yourself out of it."
"He was definitely skating in the neutral zone and had the puck a lot and got us good spots and that's what John requires of him,"
— David Alter (@dalter) March 22, 2023
Sheldon Keefe moves William Nylander back up to second line after showing improvement in last game ??https://t.co/iu8G6fqekL
Head coach Sheldon Keefe liked the play of his talented winger enough to get him back on the second line with John Tavares late Tuesday where he remained at practice on Wednesday.
"He was definitely skating in the neutral zone and had the puck a lot and got us good spots and that's what John requires of him," Keefe was quoted following Wednesday’s practice.
Leaf beat reporter David Alter also indicates that despite registering zero points, the Nylander-Tavares-Bunting line finished with the team’s best xGoal% Tuesday.
The winger recorded three shots but finished with a team-high seven shots attempts, playing the majority of his shifts with bottom-six forwards Sam Lafferty and Bobby McMann.
The move to the second line should increase Nylander’s ice time and the quality of it.
This is a player whose shots on goal market has plummeted to +120 for his Over 3.5, making tonight a perfect time to buy the dip.
This prop used to be as short as -140 to the Over when he was playing to his level. Now with some motivational factors and a matchup vs. a team that sees more total shots per game at home than any other team in hockey over the last three seasons, it's a great spot for production.
Florida has averaged a total of 70 shots per game since 2020 which paces the league by a decent 5% and there might be some generous stat recording going on at FLA Live Arena, which is why some books aren’t even offering SOG markets for Panthers home games.
The Leafs have been one of the best “bounce-back teams” in hockey going 9-1 SU following their last 10 losses and Nylander will likely be getting the better defensive matchup as Florida keys on Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. It could be a big game for this second line, and Nylander specifically.
My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (+120)
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Maple Leafs vs Panthers moneyline analysis
The Leafs opened as short as +100 but have seen that number balloon to +120. It’s the third game of a five-game road trip that stops in Carolina Saturday and Nashville on Sunday. It’s a key game in the trip, as the Leafs have not looked great in the first two games, but got lucky with a shootout win vs. Ottawa on Saturday.
Toronto is coming off one of its worst losses of the season with a 7-2 defeat by the Islanders on Tuesday. The funny thing is that metrics saw it as one of their best games this month but thanks to some less-repeatable mistakes (turnovers and unexpected goals), things got out of hand.
Toronto won the Corsi battle (58%), the expected goal battle (50.3%), and generated more scoring chances than its opponent for the first time in five games. But thanks to a scoreboard that’s advertising an awful effort, perhaps Toronto backers are getting a great price on the moneyline at +120.
Florida is priced similarly to New Jersey in this spot and 15 points longer than Boston. I know Florida has been an overvalued team this season (-9.52 units on straight moneyline bets this season) but an 80-point swing from the last meeting in Toronto two months ago is an overreaction from the recent play of the Leafs. If home ice is worth 25 points, and Toronto closed at -160 at home vs. Florida in late January, then tonight’s line should be closer to a pick ‘em.
The Leafs are also one the best teams in hockey following a loss and are 9-1 SU following their last 10 defeats.
Florida is also dealing with some key injuries in Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair, which are two decent losses to the offensive side of the home team.
Finally, I’m happy trusting Matt Murray in this road start vs. Sergei Bobrovsky. The likely Toronto starter is coming off a great game in Ottawa where he allowed four goals but stopped 48 shots. He owns a .922 save percentage on the road since November and projects similarly to Bobrovsky who despite a 6-0-1 record over his last seven games, sports a .901 save percentage and 2.67 GAA.
This is a solid price for the Leafs who are returning their lines back to normal and coming off an embarrassing loss.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Over/Under analysis
It’s no surprise to see this total open at 7, but it is a little odd to see immediate market movement to the Under.
This total has moved 15 points to the Under since opening, but the Leafs come into this game 5-1-1 to the Over in their last seven while the Panthers are 5-1 to the Over in their last six games.
Florida has been one of the more profitable Over teams in hockey with a 39-26-6 O/U record and with just 11 games left and sitting one point out of a playoff spot in the East, if Florida trails this game late, we could see plenty of empty-net action, as they have nothing to lose and everything to win.
Over bettors are also getting two of the best offenses in hockey, which include a pair of elite power plays. Florida has scored in six straight games with the man advantage with eight total PP goals in that time while the Leafs still have the No.2 power play in hockey this season.
Murray played great in Ottawa but it showed how the Leafs have been struggling recently with giving up a ton of quality chances. They held the weaker New York offense to decent metrics (gave up seven goals though) but Murray has still allowed four goals in four straight starts since returning from injury and is 8-3 to the Over since Christmas.
Bobrovsky has been picking up victories, but as I said above, he’s being supported by an offense that is giving him on average 3.92 goals per game over his last 13 starts where he has a .901 save percentage and 2.79 GAA. Florida is 6-6-1 O/U over that stretch.
Ultimately, I have no interest in this total at 7, and thanks to the market moving it to the Under, bettors might see a 6.5, which I expect wouldn’t see much time before getting hit to the Over. What bettors can do here is hit this total live at 6.5, which likely would take two to three minutes to fall in a decent threshold of Over 6.5 -120 or -115.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Panthers.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers game info
| Location: | FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, March 23, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSFL, SNO |
Maple Leafs vs Panthers key injuries
