Maple Leafs vs Penguins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Offenses Come First in Pittsburgh

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins meet for the second time in five days, this time in the Steel City. 

Toronto was able to bounce back from losing that clash by beating Vancouver, but the offense continues to struggle. The Penguins haven’t had a lot of trouble scoring, but they’re also having some issues on the back end and in the crease.

Will the Maple Leafs be able to snap out of their offensive funk and get on track, or will the Penguins be able to maintain their mastery in the series? We’ll discuss in our NHL betting picks for Maple Leafs vs. Penguins on Tuesday, November 15.

Maple Leafs vs Penguins best odds

Maple Leafs vs Penguins picks and predictions

The Maple Leafs have been extremely inconsistent this season, and the team is underperforming on offense. A team with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, etc. should not be ranked just 24th in the NHL with 2.8 goals per game.

The power play hasn’t been the issue for the Leafs, as they are hitting at a 25.5% clip to rank No. 7. A lot of the struggles for Toronto have been on the defensive end, ranking just No. 22 on the penalty kill at a 76.5% clip. 

The Penguins have not had any issues lighting the lamp, knocking out 3.6 goals per game to rank No. 8 in the NHL, and they’re No. 7 with 33.7 shots per game. Pittsburgh doesn’t have the best power play, converting at just 20.4% (18th). If that area can improve, this is a team that could make a lot of noise.

Pittsburgh’s problems are on the defensive end and in between the pipes, allowing 3.5 goals per game to check in 24th while struggling on the kill at just 72.9% (27th).

When these teams met last week, the Penguins doubled up the Leafs 4-2 behind Casey DeSmith, who stopped 28 of the 30 shots he faced.

Matt Murray is confirmed to start — not Erik Kallgren, who was in net for that prior loss — so we’ll get to see how he fares against his former organization. Murray allowed four goals on 23 shots in his Toronto debut on Oct. 12, which was his only appearance before suffering a lower-body injury.

The Pens are expected to counter with Tristan Jarry, who is 4-3-2 with a 3.55 GAA and .900 SV%. He didn’t start last week’s game in Toronto, but he was dominant against the Leafs last season, going 2-1-0 with a 1.68 GAA, .940 SV%, and a shutout in three appearances.

Toronto has had some trouble in recent seasons in Pittsburgh, winning just one of its past five trips to the Steel City. The home team has cashed in six of the past eight meetings, not including last week in Toronto. Expect the trends to come through in this one, as the Penguins have just been performing much more consistently than the Leafs. The latter cannot be trusted.

With Murray returning after a lengthy layoff and the Penguins showing they can both put the puck in the net with regularity and cough up enough of their own, I'm hitting the Over with my best bet.

My best bet: Over 6.5 (-131 at SIA)

Maple Leafs vs Penguins puck line analysis

The Maple Leafs are the favorites, and they cannot be trusted on the puck line. The last time they were favored on Saturday against the visiting Vancouver Canucks, the Leafs won 3-2, failing to cover. Toronto lost to Pittsburgh on Friday as a favorite and also lost to Vegas 4-3 in overtime before that. In fact, as a favorite, Toronto has failed to cover its past four on the puck line.

As an underdog, the Penguins covered against the Leafs on Friday night, but Pittsburgh is just 1-2 in its three games against the puck line as an underdog this season.

Toronto has dominated lately against the Metropolitan Division, going 21-5 in the past 26 tries. The Leafs also enter this one with some fresh legs, having not played since the weekend. The Leafs are 5-2 in the past seven when playing on two days of rest, so they have that going for them.

Maple Leafs vs Penguins Over/Under analysis

All signs are pointing to an Over result here. While the Under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series, including last week’s 4-2 win by Pittsburgh, toss all of that out of the window.

Neither team has played in the past two days, and each will have very fresh legs. Expect to see these teams fire out of the box with plenty of energy. In fact, play the Over 1.5 goals in the first period for an added bonus.

Murray should have plenty of rust after the long layoff, and he’ll not only have a lot of butterflies after returning from injury, but also in returning to the Steel City where he won two Stanley Cups. 

The Penguins offense is coming alive lately, lighting the lamp exactly four times in each of the past three outings, while averaging four goals per game across the past six. The Pens have allowed three or more goals in nine of the past 11 games, too. We’ll get at least seven goals here.

Maple Leafs vs Penguins betting trend to know

The Penguins have cashed the Over in 20 of the past 28 games against Eastern Conference opponents. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Penguins.

Maple Leafs vs Penguins game info

Maple Leafs vs Penguins key injuries

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